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The document challenges the narrative that Portugal's sovereign debt crisis was solely caused by national misgovernment, instead highlighting three structural weaknesses: low education levels, a low-value-added economic specialisation profile, and a peripheral geographic position. It argues that EU-level decisions—such as the process of nominal convergence and the management of the euro—exacerbated these issues. The author contends that the current adjustment program, focused on austerity and internal devaluation through wage cuts, is pro-cyclical and risks deepening the recession while undermining long-term competitiveness by cutting investments in education and infrastructure.

The Greens in the Bundestag and European Parliament call for a transition from a currency union to a comprehensive economic union to resolve the Eurocrisis. They argue that the Treaty of Lisbon and the 'new fiscal policy pact' are insufficient because they rely on intergovernmental cooperation rather than democratically legitimised EU institutions. The document proposes a 'Green Convention on the Future of the European Union' to debate treaty amendments, including the creation of a European Economic and Finance Minister, a European financial transaction tax, and a 'social progress clause' to protect workers' rights. The authors advocate for a 'Green New Deal' to ensure sustainable and socially equitable growth, alongside greater harmonisation of tax systems to prevent tax avoidance and dangerous competition.

The author identifies three failures of 'first wave' environmentalism: a failure to establish the relative urgency of environmental crises compared to immediate economic crises, the lack of a convincing narrative on growth in Agenda 21, and the tendency for environmental agendas to be managed by environmental ministers rather than economic development ministers. While the author praises the UN Secretary General's High Level Panel report for addressing these issues through recommendations on fiscal policy and a sustainable economy, he warns that the 'zero draft' of the Rio+20 outcome document remains largely aspirational and risks falling back into the 'environmental trap'.

The document examines the risk of carbon leakage and the use of Border Carbon Adjustments (BCAs) to mitigate cost asymmetries created by carbon pricing. It specifically analyzes the exposure of Chinese exports to these measures, noting that the impact varies significantly based on the products included, the CO2 price applied, and the method used to assess CO2 content.

The document examines the potential for Uganda's oil wealth to drive economic growth, warning against the 'resource curse' and 'Dutch disease' that could undermine its agricultural sector. While noting progress in transparency legislation, it highlights critical gaps in revenue management and the need for stabilisation funds.

The document summarizes a 'Critical Thinking Forum' that examined whether South Africa should intervene in its exchange rate to boost export competitiveness. A consensus emerged that manipulating the nominal exchange rate is not a 'silver bullet' and could be unsustainable due to limited foreign exchange reserves and the risk of increasing inflation. Instead, participants emphasized the need for microeconomic reforms to address structural bottlenecks in network services and lower domestic costs. The paper also explores the tension between trade liberalisation and protectionist industrial policies, such as those advocated by COSATU and the SACP, noting that previous liberalisation in the 1990s helped export diversification.

The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) faces existential threats driven by internal dissonance over revenue distribution and trade agreements. South Africa currently provides significant fiscal subsidies to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland (BLNS) through a revenue pool that is deemed unsustainable and procyclical. Tensions are further exacerbated by the interim Economic Partnership Agreements (IEPAs) signed by Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland, which South Africa and Namibia refuse to sign. The author argues that the dissolution of the customs union could occur if these trade differences are not resolved, potentially leading to the economic collapse of Lesotho and Swaziland. To ensure stability, the document proposes a regional development agenda and the creation of a development fund to reduce BLNS dependence on the revenue pool and preserve the common external tariff.

The document outlines the strategic outlook for the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), identifying critical drivers such as the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations and the stability of the revenue-sharing pool. It proposes four scenarios: 'Laduma!' (deepened integration), 'Own Goal' (fracture but continued financial support), 'Red Card' (collapse and financial withdrawal), and 'Wild Card' (deepened integration despite reduced financial transfers).

In a 2010 statement, Lesetja Kganyago, Director General of the National Treasury, discusses the role of the rand's exchange rate in South Africa's economy. He argues that while a depreciated currency can support exports, it is not a 'silver bullet' and must be accompanied by low inflation and productivity growth to be effective. Kganyago defends the managed float regime as a necessary shock absorber and warns against a fixed exchange rate, which would sacrifice monetary sovereignty. He emphasizes that long-term competitiveness requires microeconomic reforms, including infrastructure development and education, to address structural rigidities.

The proceedings of the Critical Thinking Forum examine the debate over whether South Africa should manage its exchange rate to boost industrial competitiveness or maintain a flexible system. Key discussions highlight that nominal currency devaluation may be unsustainable due to limited foreign exchange reserves and could exacerbate inflation. Experts argue that long-term competitiveness depends more on microeconomic reforms, reducing domestic costs, and increasing national savings than on currency manipulation. The forum also addresses the tension between trade liberalization and protectionist industrial policies, such as the National Industrial Policy Framework (NIPF), with some participants warning that raising tariffs could harm the poor and discourage export diversification.

The author identifies three primary points of divergence within the Southern African Customs Union (SACU): revenue distribution, trade and industrial policy, and foreign policy orientation. South Africa's role as a primary subsidizer of smaller members creates fiscal tension, while Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland seek trade diversification via an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU, contrasting with South Africa's state-led industrial policy. The author warns that dismantling SACU could lead to the collapse of administrations in Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland, triggering mass migration into South Africa. Proposed solutions include a 'quid pro quo' where smaller states accept lower revenue in exchange for more policy influence, and the EU dropping the 'MFN clause' in EPA negotiations.

The author contends that Zimbabwe's entry into the Common Monetary Area (CMA) would undermine the agreement's credibility due to Zimbabwe's inability to back currency issuance with foreign reserves. Furthermore, the move would strip Zimbabwe of its monetary and fiscal sovereignty, lead to an overvalued currency that destroys export competitiveness, and fail to curb inflation without the removal of trade barriers. Politically, such a surrender of sovereignty is viewed as unpalatable for Zimbabwe's leadership.

The study finds that investment incentives are not the primary drivers of FDI in Malawi's tourism sector; instead, investors are attracted by natural resources, low labour costs, and the environment. Fiscal incentives, such as customs procedure codes (CPCs) and tax waivers, often benefit large hotels or local investors rather than the intended small, remote operators, and may negatively impact the environment by financing polluting vehicles. The report recommends shifting toward targeted, measurable incentives for staff training and specific locations, improving data disaggregation by the Malawi Revenue Authority, and implementing a common code of ethics to ensure sustainable development.

The research paper advises South Africa to support the institutionalization of the G20 while focusing on four medium-term priorities: global growth, regulatory reform and IMF reconfiguration, Asian currency management, and the Doha Round of WTO negotiations. It suggests a cautious approach to fiscal expansion due to inflation and current account deficits, and emphasizes the need to protect and increase African representation within the IMF to avoid a diminished voice in global financial governance.

The document analyzes the 2008 financial crisis's origins in developed world regulatory failures and macroeconomic imbalances, specifically the US's trade deficits and Asian currency pegs. It evaluates the potential for G20 cooperation on reflating the global economy, reforming financial regulations, and restructuring the IMF. The author argues that while the G20 offers improved legitimacy over the G8, significant hurdles exist due to the US and UK's desire to protect their financial competitive advantages and European resistance to diminishing their influence in multilateral institutions. For South Africa, the brief recommends supporting G20 institutionalization, pushing for a 'floor' of African representation in the IMF, and advocating for Chinese currency appreciation to support industrial exports.

The paper argues that Norway's success is due to a combination of high-quality institutions existing prior to oil discovery, a stable democratic system with proportional representation, and a commitment to social welfare and intergenerational equity through the Norwegian Petroleum Fund.

The paper examines how National Revenue Funds (NRFs) can mitigate the 'resource curse'—the negative correlation between natural resource wealth and economic growth. It argues that while NRFs can theoretically smooth expenditures and prevent 'Dutch Disease', their success depends more on the political-economic environment and institutional strength than on technical design. The author suggests that in countries with weak institutions, NRFs should be established through nation-wide multi-stakeholder consultations and given constitutional status to prevent unilateral government manipulation.

The document analyzes Chile's copper industry and the government's fiscal strategies to manage windfalls from the 'copper boom'. It details the transition from the Fondo de Compensación del Cobre (FCC) to the more robust Fondo de Estabilización Económica y Social (FEES), which aims to decouple public spending from price volatility. The report also examines the role of Codelco, the impact of Chinese demand, and the challenges of tax avoidance by foreign firms and the controversial funding of the armed forces via the Ley Reservada del Cobre.

Following the June 2000 elections, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) made significant gains, particularly in urban areas and Matabeleland, though ZANU-PF retained a slim majority. Despite these results, the document argues that the MDC lacks real legislative power. Economically, Zimbabwe faces a severe crisis characterized by hyperinflation, a contracting GDP, and a budget deficit reaching 16.9% of GDP. The government's 'fast track land resettlement programme' is identified as a primary driver of economic instability, threatening the commercial farming sector and risking mass impoverishment. The appointment of Simba Makoni as Minister of Finance was initially seen as a positive sign, but his efforts are undermined by President Mugabe's continued commitment to farm seizures and military intervention in the Congo.

The report finds that while Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi have adopted progressive PFM legislation, there is a systemic failure in implementation, leaving them vulnerable to unsustainable debt and illicit financial flows. It highlights that parliamentary oversight is often non-binding and that there are significant gaps in guarding against 'debt vultures'. The SADC PF Model Law is presented as a framework to harmonize these systems, emphasizing the need for binding audit recommendations, inter-agency collaboration to fight illicit financial flows, and stricter debt contracting safeguards.