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A dynamic CGE modelling approach for analyzing trade-offs in climate change policy options: the case of Green Climate Fund
The research evaluates policy options to reach a 450 PPM CO2 concentration target by 2050, focusing on the period up to 2035. Using the GDynE model, the authors compare domestic carbon taxes and international emission trading (IET) against scenarios where the Green Climate Fund (GCF) is used for welfare redistribution, energy efficiency, or renewable energy. The findings indicate that while abatement costs are generally detrimental to the growth of developing countries, a GCF financed by an 8% levy on developed countries' carbon tax revenues can mitigate these losses. Specifically, investing GCF resources into energy efficiency in developing countries provides the most significant global benefit, potentially resulting in a net gain for developing economies and reducing the overall cost of meeting climate targets for all parties.
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Document type: Research paper
Proposed Greentech Special Economic Zone at Atlantis Pre-feasibility Study Final Report
The report assesses the feasibility of a greentech SEZ in Atlantis, South Africa. It identifies high-potential opportunities in wind turbine components, solar PV components, and solar water heaters, driven largely by government programs like the REIPPP. The study recommends a business case that prioritizes refurbishing existing industrial property over greenfield development to reduce costs and risk. It projects that a moderate demand scenario could create 1,440 direct permanent jobs and attract R650 million in FDI by 2030.
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Document type: Report
Public Finance for Renewable Energy in China
The report examines the financing of renewable energy in China, highlighting the transition from an electricity surcharge system to potential environmental fiscal measures. It analyzes global investment trends, the types and risks of renewable energy subsidies, and provides a framework for designing a carbon tax to fund the energy transition, drawing on international examples from Europe and North America.
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Document type: Report
New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model
The document assesses the impact of implementing the SSP2 scenario in the GCAM model, finding that a business-as-usual approach leads to a temperature increase of nearly 5ºC by 2095. It further evaluates a stabilization policy (RCP2.6) using a global carbon tax, which achieves negative emissions by 2100 through massive deployment of nuclear power, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and afforestation, though it highlights tensions between economic efficiency and regional equity.
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Document type: Research paper
Coal Emissions in Europe
EU coal emissions rose 6% from 2010 to 2013, contributing to 18% of total EU CO2 emissions. This increase was driven by fuel-switching from gas to coal in Germany, the UK, and Poland, which together account for 66% of coal-based emissions. While renewables and falling demand reduced overall fossil generation by 4.3% per year, the low carbon price under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) failed to prevent coal's resurgence. The report warns that the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) may not force expected closures because of cheaper compliance technologies and the introduction of capacity markets, particularly in the UK and Poland, which risk locking in high-carbon infrastructure into the 2030s. Modelling suggests that if coal remains cheaper than gas, emissions will fall only 3% by 2016, though the potential for fuel-switching will increase by 2020. Sandbag recommends urgent ETS reform, mandatory carbon intensity reporting, and targeted CCS funding.
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Document type: Report
TomorrowNow— Manitoba’s Green Plan: Toward a New Provincial Climate Change and Green Economy Plan Consultations Background Paper
The document outlines the current state of greenhouse gas emissions in Manitoba, highlighting that the transportation and agriculture sectors are the largest contributors. It reviews previous efforts, such as the Beyond Kyoto plan, and examines climate policies in other jurisdictions like Quebec, British Columbia, and Sweden to inform a new provincial strategy. The paper emphasizes the need to integrate adaptation and mitigation, particularly for the vulnerable agriculture and water sectors, and proposes a set of guiding principles for the new plan. It concludes with a questionnaire designed to gather stakeholder input on barriers, opportunities, and capacity-building needs for reducing emissions and enhancing resilience in Manitoba.
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Document type: Briefing
TomorrowNow— Manitoba’s Green Plan: Toward a New Provincial Climate Change and Green Economy Plan Consultations Background Paper
The document outlines Manitoba's current emissions profile, the shortcomings of its previous 'Beyond Kyoto' plan, and the goals for a new integrated approach to climate mitigation and adaptation. It emphasizes the role of the energy and building sectors in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing resilience to extreme weather. The paper also reviews climate policies in other Canadian jurisdictions and proposes guiding principles for the new provincial strategy, including the development of mandatory GHG reporting for large emitters.
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Document type: Briefing
Creating Incentives for Green Economic Growth: Green Energy in South Africa
The document examines South Africa's struggle to transition from a high-carbon, coal-based energy economy to a green economy. It analyzes the role of the state-owned utility Eskom, the impact of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPP), and various financial and regulatory incentives designed to attract private investment in renewables. The author argues that while policy signals are positive, a lack of inter-departmental coordination and the entrenched nature of the minerals-energy complex hinder the transition.
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Document type: Research paper
Implementing Sustainable Public Procurement in South Africa: Where to start
The report argues that South Africa's existing legal and policy frameworks, particularly those addressing social equity and industrial development, provide sufficient space to implement sustainable public procurement (SPP) without requiring new legislation. While the social pillar of SPP is well-established through Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) and preferential procurement, the environmental pillar is less formalized but gaining traction through renewable energy targets and subnational initiatives. The document highlights that government spending represents 29.1% of GDP, offering significant leverage for sustainable development. It identifies a decentralized procurement system that allows provinces and municipalities, such as the City of Cape Town and Western Cape, to run pilot projects. The report recommends aligning SPP with existing investment incentives and developing specific technical guidance to scale up 'green' procurement.
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Document type: Report
Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment
The analysis evaluates the effectiveness of national mitigation policies across major emitting economies relative to their 2020 pledges. It finds that while India, China, and Russia are projected to exceed their targets, others like Canada and the USA likely require additional policies to fully deliver their pledges. The report also notes a widespread adoption of renewable energy targets and car efficiency standards among these nations.
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Document type: Research paper
CARBON OFFSETS PAPER
The document proposes a carbon offset mechanism to allow South African firms to reduce their carbon tax liability by up to 10% of actual emissions. It establishes that only South African-based credits from projects outside the carbon tax net are eligible to avoid double counting. The paper identifies a potential national demand for offsets of up to 30 million tonnes of CO2e per annum, with a projected supply exceeding 50 million tonnes, largely driven by land-use, forestry, and renewable energy projects. It suggests an initial reliance on international standards (CDM, VCS, GS, CCBS) while proposing the medium-term development of a domestic standard managed by the Designated National Authority (DNA), supported by an independent expert committee, a national registry, and accredited third-party verifiers.
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Document type: Report
How to win the argument on climate change
The author argues that climate policy is inherently contested because it creates winners and losers, necessitating a strategic approach to communication and implementation. The proposed plan includes simplifying the climate narrative through personal and emotional storytelling, framing action as a transformational economic opportunity (green growth), designing policy packages that compensate those negatively impacted, building cross-party long-term consensus to avoid policy reversals, and focusing on rigorous implementation. The text highlights various international examples, such as Rwanda's green growth strategy and Bolivia's payments for ecosystem services, to illustrate how climate action can be integrated with development goals.
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Document type: Report
Local air pollution and global climate change taxes: a distributional analysis
The study finds that taxes on local air pollutants are more regressive than those on climate change pollutants because they increase the prices of basic necessities, such as food and electricity, which occupy a larger share of low-income household budgets. While a CO2 tax was found to be nearly proportional across income deciles, the LAP tax disproportionately affected the poorest households. Revenue recycling through reduced social security contributions improved overall economic efficiency but tended to worsen the distributional equity, particularly for the GCC tax scenario.
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Document type: Research paper
Regulating Carbon Emissions in Canada
The document reports a significant decline in federal political will to regulate carbon emissions in Canada during 2013, specifically noting the delay of oil and gas regulations. In contrast, provinces took leading roles: Ontario phased out coal-fired electricity, Quebec launched a cap-and-trade system linked to California, and British Columbia maintained its carbon tax. The brief highlights the 'Keystone effect,' where U.S. market access for the Keystone XL pipeline became linked to Canada's GHG performance. It concludes that federal 'equivalency' agreements—intended to align provincial and federal standards—have stalled due to complexity and lack of political will, recommending that Canada embrace a bottom-up approach to subnational policy alignment.
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Document type: Policy brief
Market Intelligence Report: Energy Efficiency
The report details a period of transition for South Africa's energy efficiency sector. While new building codes (SANS 10400) and tax incentives (Section 12L) aim to institutionalize efficiency, the market for domestic solar water heaters has seen a decline and consolidation following the cessation of various Eskom subsidies. Conversely, the LED lighting and embedded generation sectors, particularly solar PV, show signs of growth and increasing price competitiveness.
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Document type: Report
Politics & Global Warming
The report finds that while Democrats are most likely to believe in human-caused global warming and support climate policies, liberal and moderate Republicans often align with the mainstream public, whereas conservative Republicans hold distinctly different views. A majority of registered voters support increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy to reduce fossil fuel dependence, and most are more likely to vote for candidates who support climate action than those who oppose it. However, there is a widespread belief across the political spectrum that individual citizens have relatively little influence on government decisions compared to large campaign contributors and fossil fuel companies.
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Document type: Report
Greencape Market Intelligence Report 2014: Energy Efficiency
The report details a transition in South Africa's energy efficiency landscape, marked by the introduction of new building codes (SANS 10400) and mandatory quality testing for solar water heaters. While the high-pressure solar water heater market is consolidating after a peak in 2011 and the low-pressure sector is described as 'virtually extinct', the embedded generation sector, particularly solar PV, is showing growth as it approaches price parity with Eskom retail pricing. Financial incentives are shifting from Eskom-funded rebates, which have been largely cancelled, toward tax deductions under Section 12L.
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Document type: Report
2014 Market Intelligence Report: Renewable Energy
The report details South Africa's transition toward renewable energy, highlighting the Independent Power Producer (IPP) Procurement Program and the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It examines four market segments: utility-scale projects, the Small Projects Bidding Programme, Eskom's Standard Offer Programme, and the growing private market. The document emphasizes the importance of local content and the Western Cape's role as a hub for renewable energy manufacturing and development.
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Document type: Report
GreenCape Market Intelligence Report 2014: Renewable Energy
The report examines South Africa's renewable energy landscape in 2014, detailing the regulatory framework, utility-scale and private markets, and the manufacturing of components. It highlights the role of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) in driving capacity, while noting grid constraints and the importance of the Western Cape as an industry hub.
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Document type: Report
Expert Workshop on Energy Access and Climate Mitigation: Synergies and Trade-offs
The workshop concluded that low-carbon options have not yet fundamentally changed the barriers to energy access in Africa, such as high supply costs and weak financing. Participants argued that energy access must be framed as a tool for inclusive development rather than just a grid connection, and that national governments must lead the transition by creating enabling environments and sustainable business models. While the emissions impact of basic energy access is considered negligible, there is a call for stronger evidence linking low-carbon pathways to job creation to convince policymakers.
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Document type: Report