Search Climate Insights Directory

Colombia is planning LNG import capacity that could exceed double its projected 2030 gas demand, potentially creating stranded assets and hindering its energy transition. While the country faces a domestic gas deficit and energy security risks from El Niño and geopolitical tensions, the report argues that current and planned projects—such as the SPEC LNG expansion and the Puerto Bahía or Coveñas terminals—could satisfy demand without the need for the full suite of nine planned initiatives. The document emphasizes that prioritizing flexible, temporary LNG capacity while shifting investment toward renewables and energy efficiency would align with Colombia's international climate leadership and its roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence by 90% by 2050.

Türkiye aims for 120 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2035, requiring an annual addition of 8 GW. The primary obstacle is limited grid capacity, which necessitates an estimated $28 billion in additional investment. The report recommends resolving permitting bottlenecks for 33 GW of storage-integrated projects, diversifying energy sources through floating solar and offshore wind auctions, and leveraging regional interconnections to enhance grid flexibility. It also highlights a policy contradiction in the $8.7 billion purchase guarantee for domestic coal plants, which may hinder renewable goals and system stability.

The Colombian electrical transmission sector faces a structural lag as generation capacity is projected to reach 38.9 GW by 2030. The National Interconnected System (SIN) is nearing operational limits, with less than 5% transport capacity available and 90% of substations expected to exhaust short-circuit interruption capacity within five years. Execution is a critical failure point, with 55% of the 20 active transmission projects delayed, including the Bacatá-Norte and Sogamoso Norte-Nueva Esperanza projects. These delays are attributed to socio-environmental factors, licensing difficulties, and poor coordination between national energy planning and land-use instruments. To address this, the 'Plan Maestro de Modernización y Expansión de la infraestructura de Transmisión Eléctrica' proposes 98 strategic works, 44 of which could resolve over 149 operational restrictions by 2037. Additionally, the UPME adopted the 'Modelo de Relacionamiento Territorial' in 2025 to better integrate socio-environmental and cultural criteria into planning.

The report examines Colombia's electrical transmission sector in 2025, highlighting a structural lag in infrastructure that threatens the integration of renewable energy. It details the operational limits of the National Interconnected System (SIN), significant project execution delays, and the technical exhaustion of transport and short-circuit interruption capacities. The document also outlines the regulatory framework and the proposed 'Master Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Electrical Transmission Infrastructure' as a means to resolve these bottlenecks.

In 2025, Europe transitioned toward commercial-scale CCS deployment, marked by the first fully operational value chain at Norway's Brevik cement plant. While ten projects reached final investment decisions (FID) between December 2024 and October 2025—adding approximately 4 Mt CO2/year of capture and 14 Mt CO2/year of storage capacity—deployment remains far below the trajectories needed for 2040 and 2050 climate targets. Progress is heavily reliant on blended finance and corporate carbon dioxide removal (CDR) offtake agreements, particularly with Microsoft. Geographically, CCS is expanding from Northern European hubs into Southern and Central & Eastern Europe, with new projects in Spain, Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Hungary. Policy advancements include the Net-Zero Industry Act's 2030 injection target and Germany's 2025 legislation classifying CO2 transport and storage as projects of overriding public interest.

The report highlights the critical role of grid reliability and 'smart grids' in sustaining ASEAN's economic growth and clean energy transition. While the region has seen improvements in outage duration and frequency, challenges remain regarding transmission capacity and the integration of solar and wind power. The document warns that failure to invest in digital intelligence and infrastructure could lead to nearly $2.3 billion in annual economic losses by 2040.

Based on workshops in Utah and Colorado, RMI identifies sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as the primary near-term solution for decarbonizing aviation, while hydrogen and electric propulsion require long-term infrastructure planning. The report highlights that airports are structurally limited in leading this transition because they do not control fuel demand or aircraft certification. Key recommendations include investing in pilot programs, developing long-term master plans for new propulsion technologies, and forming regional airport coalitions to share risks. A preliminary analysis suggests that regional routes under 1,000 nautical miles with aircraft under 90 seats are the most viable early candidates for hydrogen transition.

The report examines how India can transition to cleaner EV charging by utilizing time-of-day (ToD) tariffs, green tariffs, rooftop solar, and open access. While states like Assam, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh use ToD tariffs to encourage charging during solar hours (10 AM to 4 PM), the prevalence of nighttime home charging and limited public charging infrastructure (approximately 26,367 stations) hinder effectiveness. Green tariffs are currently restricted to consumers with loads over 100 kW, and while rooftop solar is gaining traction in Delhi and Bengaluru, high deployment costs remain a barrier. Open access for renewable energy is available for operators with a 100 kW load, but high upfront and third-party charges limit its adoption.

The report argues that while the EU aims to triple data centre capacity within five to seven years, grid congestion in traditional hubs like Dublin, Frankfurt, and Amsterdam is creating a primary barrier to growth. This is shifting investment toward markets with better grid preparedness, such as the Nordics and Belgium. Data centres are identified as unique grid challenges due to their large, localised, and continuous loads. Despite their economic benefits—including GDP growth and job creation—forecasts suggest the EU will likely only double its capacity by 2030, falling short of its target.

ASEAN electricity demand grew by approximately 50% between 2013 and 2023 and is projected to rise by up to 41% by 2030. While the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) targets 100,000 km of transmission line expansion for Southeast Asia between 2021 and 2030, the combined plans of Indonesia, Viet Nam, Thailand, and the Philippines total 45,078 km, covering only about 45% of that target. The document argues that grid planning must shift from merely meeting peak demand to managing the intermittency of wind and solar power, which saw cost reductions of 55% and 85% respectively in the decade to 2020.

The report argues that ASEAN's transmission grid expansion must roughly double to align with IEA pathways, as current national plans for Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Thailand cover only about 45% of the required expansion. It highlights that 30 GW of solar and wind potential is located along planned interconnection routes in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Brunei. To support this transition, the report proposes a six-pillar framework for future-ready grid planning—including smart modernisation, strategic expansion, and market reforms—and suggests learning from the integrated power systems of Europe and Southern Africa to move from bilateral to multilateral power trade.

The report finds a significant gap between renewable energy targets and actual projects in development across the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region. While six CCA countries have targets totaling 43 GW of renewable additions by 2030–2040, only 30 GW are in development, leaving a 13 GW deficit. Fossil fuel expansion remains dominant, with more than three times as much fossil capacity under construction (11.8 GW of oil and gas plus coal) as wind and utility-scale solar (3.5 GW). Azerbaijan, the COP29 host, is highlighted for limited ambition, with no wind or solar projects in development beyond 2027, calling into question its commitment to a 30% renewable share by 2030.

China is leading global renewable energy deployment with 339 GW of utility-scale solar and wind power under construction, nearly double the capacity of the rest of the world combined. By the first quarter of 2024, wind and solar accounted for 37% of China's total power capacity. While the country is on track to potentially reach 1,200 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2024, significant obstacles remain, including a reliance on coal to mitigate intermittency, insufficient Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission lines, and rising curtailment rates in several provinces.

South Africa faces a projected 17% gap between water supply and demand by 2030, driven by climate change, population growth, and poor governance. The country's water infrastructure is at significant risk of failure due to reactive maintenance and maladministration, with 41% of municipal water classified as non-revenue water. Governance failures have led to critical risks in wastewater treatment and public health crises, such as the 2023 cholera outbreak in Hammanskraal. The document recommends implementing water conservation measures, developing climate adaptation plans, enhancing governance legislation, and prioritizing infrastructure investment in rural areas.

The NewClimate Institute finds that Germany's plan to build eleven LNG terminals with a total capacity of 73 bcm per year far exceeds the amount of gas needed to compensate for lost Russian pipeline imports. The report asserts that with continued energy efficiency and pipeline imports from neighbors, no new LNG terminals would be required. Building all planned terminals would likely result in stranded assets and undermine the energy transition by diverting resources from renewable energy and efficiency measures.

Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, European states have proposed 195 bcm/y of additional LNG import capacity to reduce reliance on Russian gas. While 9.1 bcm/y is already online and 33 bcm/y is under construction, the briefing warns that global market tightness will keep prices high until 2026. Furthermore, 15- to 20-year supply contracts signed in 2022 may undermine the EU's goal to reduce gas demand by 35% by 2030. The document also notes a lack of concrete evidence for converting this new infrastructure to hydrogen, despite claims by German project promoters.

The report identifies a significant surge in global oil and gas pipeline development, with North America leading the trend. It contends that this expansion is predicated on a 'super cycle' of demand from Asia that is incompatible with IPCC climate goals and threatened by the rise of renewables and competing production in other regions. The authors compare the current situation to the 2011–2016 coal mining crash, warning that high leverage and a loss of 'social license' create a high risk of stranded assets.

The report evaluates the Indonesian power sector using the Financial Sustainability Electricity Sector (FSES) framework. It finds that while generation capacity and reliability are improving, the sector remains heavily dependent on government subsidies and coal, with renewable energy deployment lagging behind official targets.

Colombia is planning at least nine major LNG import terminal projects and expansions between 2026 and 2030, which could create a capacity of 2,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). This capacity is more than double the 1,000 MMcf/d gas demand projected by the Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME) for 2030. The report argues that overbuilding LNG infrastructure risks creating stranded assets, increasing dependence on volatile global markets, and undermining the country's roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence and emissions by 90% by 2050.

China is leading global utility-scale solar and wind expansion, with a massive pipeline of prospective capacity concentrated in six northwestern and northern provinces. However, the 'megabase' strategy faces significant hurdles, including rising curtailment and a transmission network that remains heavily reliant on coal. While the growth of green hydrogen and standalone battery storage offers a path toward local industrial decarbonization, there is a risk that these renewables will merely supplement rather than replace coal-based industries. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) continues renewable growth but maintains a role for fossil fuels, suggesting that transmission and market flexibility remain the primary bottlenecks for a full transition.