Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26

China is leading global utility-scale solar and wind expansion, with a massive pipeline of prospective capacity concentrated in six northwestern and northern provinces. However, the 'megabase' strategy faces significant hurdles, including rising curtailment and a transmission network that remains heavily reliant on coal. While the growth of green hydrogen and standalone battery storage offers a path toward local industrial decarbonization, there is a risk that these renewables will merely supplement rather than replace coal-based industries. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) continues renewable growth but maintains a role for fossil fuels, suggesting that transmission and market flexibility remain the primary bottlenecks for a full transition.

• China possesses a massive pipeline of prospective utility-scale renewable energy, with 664 GW of solar and 698 GW of wind capacity as of June 2026. This includes over 500 GW already under construction.
• Renewable deployment is highly concentrated in six northwestern and northern regions—Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi—which hold 714 GW, representing over half of the national pipeline.
• Despite record additions in 2025, the system is experiencing rising curtailment, particularly for solar in Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Gansu, where rates reached 10–17% in 2025.
• The ultra-high voltage direct current (UHVDC) transmission network remains coal-dependent; wind and solar account for only about 20% of transmitted electricity, while coal accounts for 42%.
• China is expanding green hydrogen production to enable local industrial use of megabase power, with over 10 GW of operating wind and solar capacity dedicated to it and another 53 GW in development.
• There is a risk of 'coal lock-in' where renewables are used as a marginal feedstock for coal-to-chemicals projects to secure regulatory approval without significantly reducing coal use, as seen in Baofeng Energy's project where renewables reduce coal consumption by only 2.2%.
• The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) sets a target of 300 GW of new-type energy storage by 2030 and 2 million tonnes of annual green hydrogen production, but its target to increase northwest-to-east transmission capacity to 420 GW is considered conservative.

APA

Yu, A., Norman, J., & Huang, Y. (n.d.). Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-07/GEM%20China%20Wind%20%26%20Solar%20brief%20July%202026.pdf.pdf

Chicago

Yu, Aiqun, James Norman, and Ye Huang. Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26. Global Energy Monitor, n.d. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-07/GEM%20China%20Wind%20%26%20Solar%20brief%20July%202026.pdf.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yu |first1=Aiqun |last2=Norman |first2=James |last3=Huang |first3=Ye |title=Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26 |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-07/GEM%20China%20Wind%20%26%20Solar%20brief%20July%202026.pdf.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yunddraft, author = {Yu, Aiqun and Norman, James and Huang, Ye}, title = {{Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-07/GEM%20China%20Wind%20%26%20Solar%20brief%20July%202026.pdf.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }