Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26

This briefing by Global Energy Monitor analyzes China's utility-scale wind and solar expansion as of June 2026, focusing on the 'megabases' strategy in northwestern and northern regions. While China leads the world in prospective capacity, the report highlights critical bottlenecks in power transmission and the persistent role of coal in the energy system, which risks curtailing renewable output and entrenching fossil fuel use.

• China maintains a global lead in prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity. As of June 2026, China has 664 GW of prospective solar and 698 GW of prospective wind capacity. Notably, China has 262 GW of solar and 251 GW of wind already under construction, which is significantly higher than the rest of the world combined.
• Renewable energy deployment is heavily concentrated in six northwestern and northern provinces and autonomous regions: Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. These regions hold 714 GW of prospective capacity, representing over 50% of the national total, with projects averaging nearly 0.5 GW each.
• Grid bottlenecks and market arrangements are leading to increased curtailment of wind and solar power, particularly in resource-rich regions. In 2025, solar curtailment reached between 10–17% in Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Gansu, while wind curtailment across six northern and northwestern regions ranged from 4–9%.
• Ultra-high voltage direct current (UHVDC) transmission remains heavily dependent on coal. Wind and solar power account for only about 20% of transmitted electricity on these lines, while coal accounts for 42%. Furthermore, eleven planned UHV lines for megabases pair 129 GW of renewables with 40 GW of coal power, suggesting coal remains central to the architecture.
• China is expanding local industrial use of renewables to bypass transmission constraints, specifically through green hydrogen and standalone battery storage. China has over 10 GW of wind and solar dedicated to green hydrogen production, with another 53 GW in development. Standalone storage capacity grew by 8.7 GW in the first quarter of 2026.
• There is a risk that renewable energy will subsidize rather than replace coal, particularly in the coal-to-chemicals sector. For example, Baofeng Energy's coal-to-olefins project in Inner Mongolia includes a 1 GW renewable project that reduces coal consumption by only 2.2% of the facility's total annual use.
• The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) sets targets including 300 GW of new-type energy storage and 2 million tonnes of annual green hydrogen production by 2030. However, the target to increase northwest-to-east transmission capacity from 340 GW to 420 GW is described as conservative and may not fully reflect State Grid's plans for fifteen new UHVDC lines.

APA

Yu, A., Norman, J., & Huang, Y. (n.d.). Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-07/GEM%20China%20Wind%20%26%20Solar%20brief%20July%202026.pdf.pdf

Chicago

Yu, Aiqun, James Norman, and Ye Huang. Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26. Global Energy Monitor, n.d. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-07/GEM%20China%20Wind%20%26%20Solar%20brief%20July%202026.pdf.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yu |first1=Aiqun |last2=Norman |first2=James |last3=Huang |first3=Ye |title=Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26 |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-07/GEM%20China%20Wind%20%26%20Solar%20brief%20July%202026.pdf.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yunddraft, author = {Yu, Aiqun and Norman, James and Huang, Ye}, title = {{Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-07/GEM%20China%20Wind%20%26%20Solar%20brief%20July%202026.pdf.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }