Cop-Out: Azerbaijan, Caucasus and Central Asia Building Three Times Much Fossil [than] Wind and [Solar]

The report finds a significant gap between renewable energy targets and actual projects in development across the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region. While six CCA countries have targets totaling 43 GW of renewable additions by 2030–2040, only 30 GW are in development, leaving a 13 GW deficit. Fossil fuel expansion remains dominant, with more than three times as much fossil capacity under construction (11.8 GW of oil and gas plus coal) as wind and utility-scale solar (3.5 GW). Azerbaijan, the COP29 host, is highlighted for limited ambition, with no wind or solar projects in development beyond 2027, calling into question its commitment to a 30% renewable share by 2030.

• There is a 13 GW deficit in renewable capacity additions across six Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries compared to their 2030–2040 targets, which total 43 GW. Only 30 GW of renewable capacity is currently in development.
• Fossil fuel capacity is being built at a much faster rate than wind and solar in the CCA region; the 3.5 GW of wind and utility-scale solar under construction is less than a third of the capacity being built for coal, oil, or gas.
• Oil and gas capacity leads the regional buildout with 24 GW in development, half of which is already under construction. In contrast, coal expansion is slower, with only 195 MW under construction in Kazakhstan to replace retiring units, though 7.9 GW of coal capacity remains in development across four countries.
• Azerbaijan's renewable energy pipeline is insufficient to support long-term growth, with no wind or utility-scale solar projects in development beyond 2027. This suggests the country may only just meet its 30% renewable capacity target by 2030, which represents only a ~10% increase over legacy hydropower.
• Non-fossil capacity in development (48.3 GW) is 50% greater than fossil projects (31.9 GW), but it is progressing slower; only 17% of non-fossil projects are in the construction phase compared to 34% for fossil projects. Much of the non-fossil construction is tied to large hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that will not be fully operational until 2033 or later.
• Foreign ownership is dominant in the region's renewable transition, with firms from the Middle East and China accounting for 80% of wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development.

APA

Kozybay, J. N. J. B. N. S.-F. Z. (2024). Cop-Out: Azerbaijan, Caucasus and Central Asia Building Three Times Much Fossil [than] Wind and [Solar]. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/cop-out-azerbaijan-caucasus-and-central-asia-building-three-times-much-fossil-wind-and

Chicago

Kozybay, James Norman, Jelena Babajeva, Natalia Sidorovskaya-Fretz, Zhanaiym. Cop-Out: Azerbaijan, Caucasus and Central Asia Building Three Times Much Fossil [than] Wind and [Solar]. Global Energy Monitor, 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/cop-out-azerbaijan-caucasus-and-central-asia-building-three-times-much-fossil-wind-and.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kozybay |first1=James Norman, Jelena Babajeva, Natalia Sidorovskaya-Fretz, Zhanaiym |title=Cop-Out: Azerbaijan, Caucasus and Central Asia Building Three Times Much Fossil [than] Wind and [Solar] |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=29 November 2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/cop-out-azerbaijan-caucasus-and-central-asia-building-three-times-much-fossil-wind-and |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kozybay2024copout, author = {Kozybay, James Norman, Jelena Babajeva, Natalia Sidorovskaya-Fretz, Zhanaiym}, title = {{Cop-Out: Azerbaijan, Caucasus and Central Asia Building Three Times Much Fossil [than] Wind and [Solar]}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/cop-out-azerbaijan-caucasus-and-central-asia-building-three-times-much-fossil-wind-and}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }