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Merchant BESS in India became financially viable in 2024 due to falling battery costs and increasing price volatility in the Day Ahead Market (DAM). The report finds that BESS can achieve internal rates of return (IRR) up to 24% by combining energy arbitrage with ancillary services, with shorter-duration systems (1-2 hours) currently offering better returns than 4-hour systems.

The report introduces the National Integrated Clean Cooking Planning (NICCP) for Rwanda, utilizing the Integrated Clean Cooking Planning Tool (ICCPT) and a financial model to assess paths toward clean cooking access. It compares two scenarios: the 'Aligned' plan, which follows current government ambitions, and the 'CleanStep' plan, which prioritizes rapid adoption by 2029 followed by economic recovery. Key findings indicate that while infrastructure deployment is necessary, affordability gaps—particularly in rural areas—remain a primary barrier. The CleanStep plan achieves higher adoption and better environmental outcomes by 2029, while the Aligned plan shows better health outcomes and lower long-term funding requirements by 2034. Both plans emphasize the potential of carbon credits and the need for combined pricing measures (subsidies on both appliances and fuels) to ensure sustainable transitions.

The report examines how transition finance is being leveraged to decarbonise China's steel industry, focusing on the impact of the first subnational regulatory framework introduced in Hebei Province in December 2023. It finds that the market responded quickly to these guidelines, with steel transition loans in Hebei exceeding CNY20bn (USD2.8bn) by the end of 2024. The document estimates that the sector requires at least USD18bn in capex over the next five years to invest in electric arc furnaces (EAF), direct reduced iron (DRI) shaft furnaces, and electrolysers. While large state-owned enterprises lead in transition planning, smaller firms face greater financing gaps. The report recommends that the People's Bank of China introduce further incentives, such as interest subsidies, and that steel companies secure offtake contracts to improve the bankability of green steel projects.

The 'Cities in Transition' research argues that meeting emissions targets requires more than transitioning to renewables; it necessitates a reduction in total energy demand through urban planning. Using the city of Winnipeg as a focus, the study employs the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) methodology to show that compact, walkable, and mixed-use infill development reduces emissions and municipal infrastructure costs compared to car-oriented sprawl. The research identifies three primary barriers to this transition: NIMBY opposition to infill, outdated governance models, and the high financial costs associated with urban sprawl.

The report evaluates the 'One School, 5 Hectares of Forest' initiative in Côte d'Ivoire, specifically a project at Collège moderne de Bougousso. Comparing Nature-Based Infrastructure (NBI) against grey infrastructure and business-as-usual scenarios, the assessment finds that reforestation provides a return of USD 7.50 in benefits for every USD 1 invested. These benefits include carbon sequestration, avoided flood damages, and USD 4,100 in additional income from agroforestry, which supports women's cooperatives.

The document examines the potential for rechannelling Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from wealthy IMF member states to Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the African Development Bank (AfDB), to address Africa's annual financing gap of over $400 billion. It details a proposal where SDRs would serve as hybrid capital, allowing the AfDB to leverage funds up to four times on capital markets. The brief identifies significant political and legal barriers, including the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary financing prohibition and the lack of formal commitment from major holders like China, Japan, and the US. It recommends that South Africa's G20 presidency use diplomacy to seek ECB clarification, coordinate a Liquidity Support Agreement (LSA) with bilateral partners, and explore innovative fiscal tools such as SDR bonds or direct allocations to prescribed holders.

The document argues that Asia can achieve a more rapid coal phase-out by stopping the construction of new plants, which would allow 90% of the existing fleet to exceed their 20-year investment recovery period by 2040. It critiques co-firing with ammonia or biomass as expensive and marginally effective, while highlighting successful financing models from IEEFA and the Griffith Asia Institute that make early retirement financially viable through renewables bundling and refinancing. The briefing emphasizes that a just transition requires concessional and multilateral financing from developed nations to support coal-dependent communities.

The briefing argues that conventional neoclassical financial analysis fails to account for long-term non-financial risks and externalities, often leading to underinvestment in sustainable transport. It proposes an 'integrated financial analysis' where positive externalities—such as health benefits and time savings—are monetized and converted into revenue streams. Using a case study of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Bandung, Indonesia, the paper demonstrates that while the project is financially unviable based on ticket sales alone, it becomes viable if a small fraction (12% to 19%) of its societal externalities are internalized. The author recommends lowering social discount rates to better incentivize long-term sustainable investments.

The report examines the investment landscape for first-of-kind clean fuel projects in Canada, distinguishing between standard market risks and systemic market or policy failures. Through financial modelling of five project archetypes, the study finds that most are currently uneconomic and require targeted government intervention to become bankable. Key barriers include policy uncertainty, infrastructure deficits, skilled labour shortages, and the complexities of establishing equitable Indigenous partnerships.

The report finds that LNG developments in Mozambique and Tanzania face significant transition risks, with asset values potentially dropping by 61% and 69% respectively in a 'Well Below Two Degrees Centigrade' (WB2C) scenario. In a 'Net Zero by 2050' (NZE) scenario, most projects would become uneconomic or 'value destructive' for investors. The authors argue that pursuing domestic gas-led industrialisation could further erode the viability of export projects and may require substantial government subsidies, potentially costing Tanzania approximately $5 billion over 30 years. Consequently, governments face material downside risks to public finances, as they intend to use gas revenues for public expenditure.

The report evaluates the Paterson Park Precinct's building infrastructure in Johannesburg, comparing a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with a green building scenario across different climate pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Using the SAVi tool and Copernicus Climate Change Service data, the analysis finds that green buildings significantly reduce life-cycle costs through lower energy and maintenance expenditures and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change primarily increases energy costs and GHG emissions for both scenarios, though the green design remains more cost-effective. Additionally, the report identifies solar PV installations as a highly profitable investment in South Africa, particularly when accounting for electricity price inflation.

The document examines the challenges and opportunities for private investment in Peru's waste sector to meet NDC goals. It evaluates specific technology options for landfills in Trujillo and San Juan Bautista, develops financial investment cases, and identifies systemic barriers such as high tax delinquency and lack of regulatory capacity. To address these, the paper proposes three priority measures: integrating waste tax collection into public utility bills, creating a national methodology for calculating waste service costs, and expanding the 'Work for Taxes' (OxI) scheme to final waste disposal infrastructure.

The report finds that the value of Uganda's upstream oil reserves has declined by 70% since 2013 due to structural changes in the global oil market, with a further $10 billion at risk in a transition aligned with the Paris Agreement. Current commercial terms are deemed insufficient for international oil companies like Total and CNOOC to reach a final investment decision, likely necessitating costly renegotiations for the Ugandan government. The authors argue that relying on oil for economic development is increasingly risky and recommend diversifying the economy, potentially through electrification, while incorporating climate transition and physical risks into public debt sustainability forecasts.

The report argues that independent palm oil smallholders in Berau face significant economic risks due to monocropping and low productivity, with returns often falling far below the regional minimum wage. Through financial modelling, the study finds that diversifying into maize and cocoa can substantially increase revenue—potentially up to 825% more than monocropping—while reducing sensitivity to market price volatility. It recommends that diversification begin during the peak productivity of palm oil trees (around year 10) to ensure bankability and positive cash flow. To facilitate this transition, the report suggests leveraging financial instruments such as the Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) interest rate subsidy, credit guarantee schemes, and maize insurance, while strengthening local programs like PRUKADES and farmers' corporation plantation zones.

The briefing argues that eligible EU Member States, primarily in Central Eastern Europe, should maximise the Modernisation Fund by transferring allowances from the Article 10c derogation and the Solidarity & Growth Provision. It concludes that the Modernisation Fund is more flexible and effective for energy transition than Article 10c, which has strict financing requirements and limited eligibility. The document also discusses the potential financial impact of Market Stability Reserve (MSR) recalculations on Member State auction revenues.

The report evaluates green economy (GE) investments in Georgia, focusing on buildings, agriculture, and tourism. Using the SAVi methodology, it demonstrates that while traditional financial analysis suggests these investments may not be profitable, incorporating environmental, social, and economic externalities reveals a high sustainable internal rate of return (S-IRR) of 84% and a sustainable net present value (S-NPV) of approximately GEL 20.4 billion.

The Distributed Energy for Social Housing (DESH) fund is a third-party ownership and rental model designed to overcome financial barriers for low-income Brazilian households accessing solar energy. By funding 100% of projects and eliminating upfront costs and interest rates for tenants, the instrument aims to provide energy at 10-20% below standard utility rates. A 5 MW pilot involving five 1 MW plants in state capitals is projected to require US$ 6 million in investment, serving 2,900 households and mitigating 105,000 tons of carbon emissions. The fund utilizes a dual-class structure with a first-loss tranche for concessional capital and a senior tranche for commercial investors, with a long-term goal of mobilizing US$ 1.1 billion to reach over 677,000 households within 12 years.

The briefing outlines a sustainable finance instrument designed to transition Indian auto-rickshaw drivers from conventional vehicles to electric ones. By providing 100% debt financing, eliminating collateral requirements, and offering lower interest rates (22%-24% per annum), the instrument aims to replace the current rental model and predatory informal loans. The proposed NBFC structure will pool equity, commercial debt, and concessional capital, utilizing a community-driven loan appraisal and collection system to mitigate default risks. A pilot project targeting 500 vehicles in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Chitradurga is planned to demonstrate the model's viability and environmental impact, with a long-term goal of capturing 5% of the Indian market to avoid 9 million tons of carbon emissions.

The Green Aggregation Tech Enterprise (GATE) is a proposed guarantee facility designed to mitigate demand and payment risks for mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa. By guaranteeing a baseline level of revenue, GATE aims to transform mini-grids into a bankable asset class, shifting their financing from donor grants to private debt. The instrument will be piloted in Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and the DRC, with a phased implementation pathway moving from a proof-of-concept (2018-2019) to full commercialization by 2028-2030. Financial modelling suggests that at scale, GATE can be sustainable and catalytic, potentially mobilizing US$ 1.725 billion in private investment by 2030 and providing electricity to millions of households and businesses.

The Responsible Commodities Facility (RCF) is a proposed debt fund designed to halt agricultural expansion into the Brazilian Cerrado by providing low-interest loans to farmers who produce soy and corn on degraded lands. The facility aims to raise US$ 300 million through green bonds to provide crop financing and land restoration loans, utilizing blockchain for traceability and a dedicated exchange to link producers with international sustainable buyers. Over 10 years, the RCF targets the restoration of 1.2 million hectares of land and the avoidance of 55 million tonnes of carbon emissions.