Opportunities for Asia’s coal phase-out

The document argues that Asia can achieve a more rapid coal phase-out by stopping the construction of new plants, which would allow 90% of the existing fleet to exceed their 20-year investment recovery period by 2040. It critiques co-firing with ammonia or biomass as expensive and marginally effective, while highlighting successful financing models from IEEFA and the Griffith Asia Institute that make early retirement financially viable through renewables bundling and refinancing. The briefing emphasizes that a just transition requires concessional and multilateral financing from developed nations to support coal-dependent communities.

• Stopping the addition of new coal plants to Asia's energy system would mean that 90% of the coal fleet would be over 20 years old by 2040, facilitating easier retirement as these facilities would likely have recovered their initial investment costs.
• Co-firing technologies are deemed inefficient and risky; ammonia co-firing at a 20% rate leaves 80% of emissions and causes a 12% thermal efficiency loss, while biomass co-firing risks deforestation and can emit 30% more carbon per unit of energy than coal.
• Replacing the entire coal fleet with clean energy could generate USD 105 billion in net annual savings by 2025 and an accumulated net gain of USD 78 trillion by the end of the century by avoiding climate change damage.
• The IEEFA model for coal-to-clean transitions replaces private coal power-purchase agreements (PPAs) with renewables and storage PPAs, requiring minimal philanthropic investment and few subsidies. A potential application is the 2.6-GW Mae Moh plant in Thailand, which could retire by 2026 and prevent 21 million tonnes of annual CO2 emissions if paired with 13.8 GW of solar PV.
• Research by the Griffith Asia Institute on Chinese-sponsored plants in Vietnam and Pakistan found that refinancing combined with renewable energy investments can more than triple the enterprise value compared to the original PPA.
• In Southeast Asia, increasing the share of low-cost renewables is projected to reduce the average cost of electricity from approximately USD 120 per MWh currently to under USD 100 per MWh by 2035 and USD 80 per MWh by 2050.
• A just transition for coal-dependent communities requires a combination of top-down and bottom-up strategies, including concessional and multilateral financing and governance frameworks to manage livelihoods and environmental risks.

APA

Team, Z. (2024). Opportunities for Asia’s coal phase-out. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/opportunities-for-asias-coal-phase-out/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Opportunities for Asia’s coal phase-out. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2024. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/opportunities-for-asias-coal-phase-out/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Opportunities for Asia’s coal phase-out |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=11 November 2024 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/opportunities-for-asias-coal-phase-out/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2024opportunities, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Opportunities for Asia’s coal phase-out}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/opportunities-for-asias-coal-phase-out/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }