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Analysis: Global extreme heat in June 2024 strongly linked to climate change
Between June 16 and 24, 2024, approximately 4.97 billion people—over 60% of the global population—were exposed to extreme heat that was at least three times more likely to occur due to climate change. The analysis, using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), highlights severe impacts across India, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Brazil, and the United States, as well as lethal heat waves in Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Egypt.
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Document type: Report
Sleepless Nights
Climate change is increasing the frequency of nighttime temperatures exceeding 18°C, 20°C, and 25°C, which impairs human sleep and increases health risks. Between 2018 and 2023, the average person globally experienced 4.8 additional days per year above 20°C and 11.5 additional days above 25°C due to climate change. The report highlights severe impacts in specific regions, such as California in the U.S. and West Bengal and Assam in India, where the number of added hot nights is highest.
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Document type: Report
Climate Shift Index Alert
From June 18-20, 2024, a major to extreme heat event is forecast for the eastern half of the U.S., affecting over 25 million people. The event is characterized by record-level high temperatures in major cities and elevated nighttime temperatures. Climate Central's Climate Shift Index (CSI) indicates that human-caused climate change has made this heat at least four times more likely in several states, including West Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Climate Shift Index Alert
The Southwest United States experienced an extreme heat event from June 6 to June 13, 2024, with human-caused climate change making high temperatures at least five times more likely. The event caused record-setting temperatures in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, led to numerous hospitalizations for heat exhaustion, and contributed to wildfires in California.
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Document type: Fact sheet
People Exposed to Climate Change: March-May 2024
Between March and May 2024, global temperature records were broken for three consecutive months. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the analysis found that approximately one in four people worldwide experienced temperatures at least three times more likely due to climate change (CSI level 3+) daily. Exposure peaked on April 6, 2024, with 2.7 billion people affected. The most severe impacts were concentrated in Africa, Southeast Asia, Central America, and South America, with 44% of Africa's population experiencing the most extreme attributable heat (CSI level 5 for 60+ days). The report also highlights a strong regional contrast in the U.S., where coastal areas and islands showed higher CSI signals despite lower temperature anomalies compared to the Upper Midwest.
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Document type: Report
Warm Spring Days Boosted by Climate Change in U.S. Cities
Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), Climate Central found that human-caused climate change significantly boosted spring warmth in 2024, affecting 300 million people in the U.S. and approximately one in four people globally. The strongest influence was observed in coastal and island regions, such as Puerto Rico and Florida, while areas with the highest temperature anomalies, like the Upper Midwest, showed lower CSI levels due to higher historical temperature variance.
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Document type: Briefing
Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks
The report finds that human-induced climate change significantly increased the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat globally from May 2023 to May 2024. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the study determined that 6.3 billion people experienced at least 31 days of extreme heat made at least twice as likely by climate change. It identifies 76 extreme heat waves across 90 countries and highlights critical gaps in impact reporting, particularly in developing regions. The authors advocate for City Heat Action Plans and systemic adaptations to prevent heat-related fatalities.
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Document type: Report
Climate change is boosting severe heat in western India
Climate Central analysis indicates that human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of an intense heat event in western and northwestern India from May 18-20, 2024. Forecasts predict daily high temperatures 3°C to over 6°C above average, with some areas exceeding 47°C and nighttime lows remaining above 34°C. Approximately 543 million people in India are expected to experience at least one day with a Climate Shift Index (CSI) level of 3 or higher during this period.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across Asia more frequent and extreme
A World Weather Attribution study found that human-induced climate change significantly increased the frequency and intensity of April 2024 heatwaves across Asia. In the Philippines, the event would have been "impossible" without climate change, while in West Asia, the probability increased by a factor of 5. In South Asia, extreme temperatures were found to be about 45 times more likely and 0.85ºC hotter. The report highlights disproportionate impacts on vulnerable groups, including 1.7 million displaced people in Gaza and outdoor workers, and notes that existing heat action plans often lack mandatory workplace regulations and retrofitting for informal settlements.
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Document type: Research paper
Dangerous, early-season heat in Florida made five times more likely by climate change
Florida is expected to experience dangerous early-season heat from May 14-16, 2024, with temperatures exceeding 90°F and heat index values between 100°F and 105°F. Human-caused climate change has made these conditions more than five times more likely, as indicated by a Climate Shift Index (CSI) level of 5 in Central and Southern Florida. Approximately 17 million people are expected to experience at least one day of CSI level 5 heat. The event is characterized by high humidity and overnight lows 5°-10°F above average, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality, particularly for those without effective cooling.
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Document type: Fact sheet
El Niño key driver of drought in highly vulnerable Southern African countries
The analysis concludes that El Niño is a key driver of the 2024 drought in Southern Africa, making such events twice as likely to occur. Conversely, human-induced climate change did not emerge as a significant driver of the low rainfall observed between December and February, with data suggesting that rainfall in this period actually increases as global temperatures rise.
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Document type: Research paper
Warm Winter Days Boosted by Climate Change in U.S. Cities
Analysis by Climate Central indicates that carbon pollution significantly increased the likelihood of abnormally warm winter days across the U.S. from December 2023 to February 2024. Approximately 85% of the U.S. population experienced at least one day where warm temperatures were at least twice as likely due to climate change. The Midwest experienced particularly strong climate fingerprints, with Minneapolis showing the largest warm departure from normal temperatures among 487 global cities with populations over 1 million. San Juan, Puerto Rico, recorded the highest number of days influenced by climate change at Climate Shift Index level 2 or higher.
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Document type: Briefing
Seasonal Attribution Report
Between December 2023 and February 2024, carbon pollution drove abnormal warmth for approximately 80% of the global population. Roughly 4.8 billion people experienced at least one day of temperatures that would be 'virtually impossible' without climate change. The report highlights extreme temperature anomalies in the U.S. upper Midwest and Canada, as well as high Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels in tropical regions of Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Caribbean. It also documents associated extreme weather events, including record-breaking heat in Australia and deadly floods in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
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Document type: Report
Analysis: Climate change drove Canada’s warm December
Analysis by Climate Central indicates that human-caused climate change made the record-breaking warmth in Canada during December 2023 significantly more likely. While El Niño contributed to milder conditions, the report argues it was insufficient on its own to produce the observed records. The warmth led to delayed ice road openings in the North and disrupted winter sports and skating in provinces like Ontario and British Columbia.
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Document type: Report
2023: Earth’s Hottest Year on Record
2023 was the hottest year on record, reaching 1.4°C above the 1881-1910 baseline. This warming is driven by unprecedented levels of carbon pollution from fossil fuels, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events globally.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Earth’s hottest 12-month streak
Climate Central's analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) reveals that 90% of the global population experienced at least 10 days of temperatures strongly influenced by climate change between November 2022 and October 2023. The study highlights that one in four people faced extreme heat streaks of at least five days driven by carbon pollution, with the strongest influences observed in the developing world and specific high-impact areas like Jamaica and several U.S. cities.
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Document type: Briefing
The hottest 12-month stretch in recorded history
The period from November 2022 to October 2023 was the hottest 12-month stretch in recorded history, with a global average temperature 1.32°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), Climate Central found that 90% of the global population (7.3 billion people) experienced at least 10 days of temperatures very strongly affected by climate change (CSI level 3 or higher). Approximately 1.9 billion people (24%) experienced a five-day heat wave strongly influenced by carbon pollution (CSI level 2 or higher). The report highlights an inequitable distribution of impacts, with small island developing states and least developed countries facing higher exposure, although heat waves also occurred in G20 nations. The analysis also links human-induced climate change to severe weather events, including deadly flooding in Africa and Libya, and record-breaking wildfires in Canada and Hawaii.
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Document type: Report
Hot Summer Days Linked to Climate Change in U.S. Cities
Analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) reveals that 97% of the U.S. population experienced at least one summer day in 2023 with temperatures made at least twice as likely by climate change. The strongest impacts were concentrated in the U.S. South, Southwest, and Southeast, with San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Victoria, Texas, among the most affected cities. The period was also characterized by record-breaking heat streaks and a record number of billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S.
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Document type: Briefing
Global review June-August 2023
Analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) shows that human-caused climate change significantly increased the likelihood of record-shattering heat during the June-August 2023 period. Approximately 48% of the global population experienced at least 30 days where heat was made at least three times more likely by climate change (CSI level 3 or higher). The report highlights a stark inequity in exposure, noting that countries with the lowest historical emissions experienced three to four times more days of very strong climate fingerprints than G20 countries.
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Document type: Policy brief
Climate Shift Index Global July 2023
Analysis of July 2023, likely Earth's record hottest month, shows that human-caused climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme heat globally. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the report finds that 6.5 billion people experienced at least one day where heat was at least three times more likely due to climate change. Particularly strong influences were noted in the Caribbean, Mexico, the southern U.S., and parts of Africa and Asia. In the U.S., 73% of the population experienced at least one day at CSI level 3 or higher, with several cities in Florida, New Mexico, and Arizona showing the strongest climate fingerprints.
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Document type: Briefing