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The report details how Shell and TotalEnergies integrate themselves across the VCM value chain—from project development and trading to influencing governance—to maintain fossil fuel production while claiming progress toward net-zero. It highlights systemic issues with the integrity of the credits they use, specifically in forestry and cookstove projects, and notes that neither company has a decarbonisation plan aligned with the Paris Agreement.

Colombia is planning at least nine major LNG import terminal projects and expansions between 2026 and 2030, which would create a capacity of approximately 2,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). This figure is more than double the government's projected gas demand of 1,000 MMcf/d for 2030. The report warns that such an overbuild could lead to stranded assets, lock the country into long-term fossil fuel contracts, and divert resources from renewables and energy efficiency. While the country faces a domestic gas deficit and energy security challenges exacerbated by El Niño and geopolitical tensions, the document suggests that near-term needs could be met without overbuilding infrastructure, aligning instead with a roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence and emissions by 90% by 2050.

The document analyzes the 2026 review of the IMF and World Bank's Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF). While acknowledging improvements in domestic debt treatment and country heterogeneity, it argues that the framework fails to conceptually separate public debt sustainability from external sustainability. The authors recommend a 'two-instrument approach' where the LIC-DSF serves as a public DSA and is complemented by a dedicated external DSA to better inform borrowing, fiscal rules, and debt restructuring decisions.

Virtual power plants (VPPs) are reaching scales that rival traditional power plants, with some programs exceeding 1 GW. Despite this, the document finds that utilities often fail to properly model VPPs in integrated resource plans (IRPs) and distribution system plans (DSPs), frequently treating them as fixed load adjustments rather than selectable resources. This planning gap leads to an underestimation of VPP value and a risk of redundant infrastructure investment. The author recommends that regulators and utilities develop detailed resource attributes for VPPs, allow for their growth in models, and evaluate their benefits across both bulk power and distribution systems.

The US electric grid faces severe supply chain constraints, with lead times for large power transformers reaching up to four years and prices for power line cables doubling since 2019. Domestic production is insufficient, meeting only 20% of demand for large power transformers in 2025. To address this, the document proposes a three-pronged federal strategy: easing near-term bottlenecks through allied partnerships and production ramps; expanding domestic capacity via manufacturing tax credits and low-cost scaling capital; and promoting innovation in next-generation grid hardware. It also highlights subnational opportunities for states to attract investment through tailored workforce training and industrial clustering.

The document argues that the energy transition within the expanded BRICS bloc is a contest of power between incumbent fossil-industrial interests and emerging green regimes. It identifies a 'grey space' of hybrid compromise where ambitious climate rhetoric masks continued fossil fuel expansion. To navigate this, the authors introduce the BRICS Climate and Energy Compass and a strategic action plan focusing on financial architecture reform, investment in hard-to-abate sectors, and the localisation of climate finance.

The policy brief asserts that the European Union's reliance on fossil fuel imports—nearly 60% of its primary energy supply—creates critical vulnerabilities. It proposes a five-step strategy focusing on electrification, grid interconnection, flexible energy systems, industrial decarbonization, and the use of the EU Methane Emissions Regulation (MER) to phase out high-risk suppliers. The document highlights that 89% of final energy demand can be electrified with current technology, which would significantly reduce exposure to external shocks and improve industrial competitiveness.

The document outlines the necessity of social and environmental safeguards in mangrove restoration to prevent ecological disruption and socio-economic harm. It provides a framework of actions based on Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) guidelines, covering areas such as environmental impact assessments, human rights, and gender equality. The brief highlights the Natur’ELLES project in Senegal, which has restored 123 ha of mangroves and 68 ha of continental forest while significantly increasing women's leadership in environmental management committees.

The document introduces investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) as a mechanism allowing foreign investors to bring claims against host states before international tribunals. It highlights that the mining sector is one of the most frequent targets of such claims, which can result in large monetary awards and delay regulatory reforms. The brief details how consent for ISDS is established through investment treaties, domestic laws, and contracts, and notes a growing trend of claims linked to the demand for critical minerals. It concludes with recommendations for governments to manage ISDS risks through inter-agency coordination, thorough documentation, and legal coherence.

The document argues that financial institutions (FIs) have a responsibility to stop financing activities that drive biodiversity degradation, particularly fossil fuel activities. It proposes a minimum foundation of scientific frameworks—centered on Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and supplemented by marine and carbon-critical ecosystem frameworks—to define 'no-go zones' where fossil fuel projects should be strictly prohibited. The note emphasizes that existing protected area statuses are often insufficient for effective conservation and suggests the implementation of buffer zones (10 km terrestrial, 50 km marine) to mitigate the wider impact radius of fossil fuel activities.

The document argues that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has established climate action as a binding legal obligation, meaning investment protections cannot override a state's climate duties. It suggests that this ruling challenges the legal basis of Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) claims against climate regulations, such as coal phase-outs or drilling bans. The brief recommends that states implement specific climate exclusion clauses in treaties, restrict prospective damages based on speculative future revenues, terminate obsolete investment treaties, and pursue a fundamental reform of the international investment regime.

The US faces a critical bottleneck in connecting new electricity generation and storage to the grid, with over 2.2 terawatts of projects currently in queues. While the US Department of Energy has pushed for streamlined load interconnection for data centers, the author argues that this is insufficient without parallel reforms to generator interconnection. Current processes are characterized by long delays—averaging nearly five years from request to operation in 2024—and high network upgrade costs that often exceed 10% of project capex, leading to high attrition rates. The brief proposes several solutions: adopting advanced AI and automation software for studies, integrating Grid-enhancing technologies (GETs) to reduce costs, improving transparency in network upgrade construction, and implementing 'fast track' pathways such as energy-only interconnection, surplus interconnection service, and generator replacement.

The document examines how the 2025 ICJ Advisory Opinion shifts climate adaptation from a voluntary domestic policy choice to a legally binding international obligation. It details the procedural and substantive obligations under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement, the application of a 'due diligence' standard to assess state compliance, and the binding requirements for developed countries to provide adaptation finance and support. The brief also highlights the intersection of adaptation with international human rights law and other multilateral environmental agreements, recommending that states integrate these frameworks to ensure legal robustness and effective resilience.

The document highlights the risks posed by outdated and opaque investment contracts, such as stabilization clauses and tax incentives, which can limit a state's regulatory space and lead to costly international arbitration. It proposes a three-step national reform strategy: improving inter-ministerial coordination, centralizing and evaluating existing contracts, and developing standardized model contracts. It also calls for greater alignment between contract reform and broader regional and global efforts to modernize investment governance.

The report argues that fossil fuel supermajors use the voluntary carbon market (VCM) as a strategic pillar to maintain a green image while continuing carbon-intensive operations. It details how these companies and trade associations like IETA and API lobby for weaker credit quality standards and increased flexibility in offsetting Scope 3 emissions. The document specifically critiques the governance of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI), alleging that the inclusion of industry representatives in decision-making roles creates significant conflicts of interest that risk diluting integrity standards.

The policy brief advocates for a hierarchical approach to industrial decarbonization in the United States, prioritizing energy efficiency and electrification over carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). It argues that CCUS should be limited to niche uses because it fails to address upstream emissions, captures only about 90 percent of CO2, and prolongs fossil fuel infrastructure. The document identifies six high-priority CCUS use cases, dividing them into long-term solutions for process emissions and bioenergy, and short-term solutions for blue hydrogen production, high-temperature heat, high-purity CO2 streams, and new efficient facilities.

The policy brief advocates for a transition from traditional antibody-based and PCR diagnostics to aptamer-based technology to improve outbreak response and biosecurity. It highlights that aptamers—synthetic nucleic acid sequences—can be developed in weeks, produced without animal cells, and digitally distributed for local manufacture, thereby reducing supply chain vulnerabilities. The author argues that this capability enables 'deterrence by denial' by signaling to potential perpetrators that engineered bioweapons would be detected rapidly. The brief recommends that US agencies including ARPA-H, DARPA, ASPR, NIH, FDA, and USDA fund rapid-response platforms, establish regulatory pathways, and integrate these diagnostics into agricultural biosecurity.

The report identifies systemic constraints for women-led enterprises (WLEs) in Nepal, particularly in agriculture and forestry, where 70% of women are employed. A survey of 200 WLEs reveals that 65% have been affected by climate shocks, yet 88% rely on personal savings due to collateral gaps and misaligned financial products. While Nepal has a GESI-responsive climate policy framework, implementation gaps persist, with climate finance often remaining gender-neutral. The brief recommends tailored capacity building, the introduction of parametric insurance-linked credit, and the strengthening of women's enterprise associations to bridge the financing gap.

The document highlights the decline of natural water storage in the Canadian Prairies due to drainage and land conversion, which increases vulnerability to climate-driven extremes. It advocates for a combination of wetland conservation and constructed water retention projects to improve water security, reduce flood peaks, and enhance water quality. The brief provides specific examples of successful projects in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, while outlining a strategic framework for future expansion, including prioritized conservation and increased funding.

The document examines the risks of incorporating arbitration, specifically investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), into the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UN FCITC). It contrasts ISDS with mandatory binding arbitration (MBA) and the mutual agreement procedure (MAP), highlighting structural flaws in ISDS such as high costs, inconsistent decision-making, and 'regulatory chill'. Drawing on the prolonged reform efforts of UNCITRAL Working Group III, the brief warns that adopting complex arbitration mechanisms can lead to institutional lock-in and asymmetric influence in negotiations. It recommends that the UN FCITC include safeguards, such as carve-out clauses, to protect fiscal sovereignty and discourage the use of ISDS for tax disputes.