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Can a universal basic income contribute to breaking structural poverty in South Africa?
The document compiles research on the impacts of Universal Basic Income Grants (UBIG) and cash transfers, focusing on their ability to reduce poverty, improve health, and empower women in South Africa and other low-to-middle-income countries. It challenges myths regarding welfare dependency, arguing that such grants often facilitate job searches and productive investments rather than discouraging work. The bibliography also examines the macroeconomic feasibility of UBIG through progressive taxation and the social benefits of universality over targeted assistance.
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Document type: Briefing
Gender Equity and Sustainable Livelihoods in Renewable Energy Value Chains: A Conceptual Framework through a Social Reproduction Lens
The paper argues that renewable energy value chains (REVCs) often replicate existing global inequalities, where Global South countries are relegated to low-value-added activities like mineral extraction while Global North countries capture high-value R&D and manufacturing. By applying a 'social reproduction lens'—which examines the intersection of paid and unpaid work and the organization of everyday life—the authors highlight how these structural asymmetries, combined with the 'feminisation of informality,' create barriers to gender equity and sustainable livelihoods. The proposed framework consists of three dimensions: global distribution of value, work and livelihoods, and ecological justice. It emphasizes that a 'just transition' requires moving beyond individual capabilities to address systemic issues such as 'ecologically unequal exchange,' where the Global North appropriates land, labour, and materials from the South. The document concludes with an assessment matrix to guide policymakers in creating high-quality, formal jobs that are compatible with the social reproduction needs of marginalized groups.
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Document type: Research paper
Just Energy Transition: Kenya Renewable Energy Policy Scan
The report examines Kenya's renewable energy policy landscape, noting that while the country has achieved high renewable energy generation (over 90%), there are significant gaps in local manufacturing capacity and social inclusivity. It highlights a dependency on imported technology for solar and wind components and identifies a disconnect between high-level policy ambitions—such as the 'Buy Kenya, Build Kenya' strategy—and the actual capabilities of local medium enterprises. The document also notes that women remain underrepresented in technical roles and that the energy sector is characterised by high levels of casualised labour, which undermines the goal of decent work.
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Document type: Report
Information Warfare and Wikipedia
The report analyzes how Wikipedia is targeted by information warfare, including undisclosed paid editing, state-sponsored infiltration, and the use of biased sources. Through a case study of the English-language page on the Russo-Ukrainian war, researchers identified patterns where blocked editors used state-affiliated domains and split their edit histories across multiple accounts to evade detection. The document also highlights the risk of 'community capture' in non-English Wikipedias and the psychological toll on volunteer editors fighting these campaigns.
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Document type: Report
2162 ISS Monograph 117 Mozambique.indd
The report examines the reception of 250,000 to 350,000 Mozambican refugees in South Africa during the 1980s, highlighting a paradox where ethnic solidarity among Shangaan-speakers coexisted with severe economic exploitation. It details the creation of a 'third tier' of undocumented labour in the lowveld's commercial farming sector and critiques the UNHCR's flawed repatriation programme in the 1990s. Despite subsequent South African government amnesties granting permanent residence to 176,648 refugees by 2000, the author argues that many former refugees remained a 'de facto undocumented' underclass due to systemic xenophobia and structural economic dependence on cheap labour.
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Document type: Report
2162 ISS Monograph 117 Mozambique.indd
The report examines the migration of Congolese nationals to South Africa, noting a transition from elite migration during the late apartheid era to a larger influx of middle-class, educated refugees fleeing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Despite high levels of human capital, these migrants face significant social dislocation, high unemployment, and systemic discrimination, often finding themselves in survivalist informal labor such as car guarding and hair cutting. The text highlights the role of ethnic 'tribes' as survival networks and the pervasive corruption within the Department of Home Affairs.
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Document type: Report
mono82-e5f1ad5c6905d6e5.pdf
The document provides an analytical account of child soldiering in Africa, focusing on the drivers, roles, and consequences for both boys and girls. It argues that the use of children is a global phenomenon facilitated by the proliferation of light weapons and the nature of modern intra-state civil wars. The author emphasizes that recruitment is often a deliberate military strategy based on the agility and controllability of children, or a result of extreme poverty and state collapse. The text highlights the specific, often invisible, experiences of girl soldiers, who serve as combatants, spies, and forced 'wives'. It concludes that child soldiering creates a 'scarred generation' and a dysfunctional notion of childhood, which in turn alters the culture of the affected societies.
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Document type: Report
Document2 Final
The text examines the role of peace education in transforming societies from a reliance on military solutions to a culture of peace. It discusses various typologies of peace education, its implementation in formal and informal settings, and specifically evaluates its application and potential in South Africa and the wider sub-Saharan African region. The author contends that investing in peace educators is significantly more cost-effective than maintaining military budgets and is a necessary component of sustainable regional security.
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Document type: Research paper
African military spending: Defence versus development?
The document examines the 'guns versus butter' debate, concluding that while African military spending is low by global standards, its economic impact is generally slightly negative and varies based on a country's political stability and economic resources. It argues that security conditions drive spending and that conflict-reduction efforts are more effective for development than simple appeals to reduce military budgets.
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Document type: Research paper
Rival Views of Organised Crime
The author critiques the mainstream definition of organised crime, which often views it as a structured, culturally homogenous conspiracy. The paper introduces four models of criminal coordination—hierarchy, networks, markets, and clans—and argues that real-world criminal entities are often hybrids of these. It specifically examines the application of these views in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and suggests that the term 'illicit enterprise' better captures the continuum between legal and illegal business activities.
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Document type: Research paper
Gas Lifecycle Methane Emissions, Richards Bay Review
The report argues that natural gas is more damaging to the climate than coal over a 20-year period due to potent methane leaks throughout its lifecycle. It highlights that 'top-down' measurements using satellites and aircraft reveal significantly higher emissions than traditional 'bottom-up' estimates. The author notes that shale gas and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) further increase these emissions, making gas expansion incompatible with a livable climate. This analysis is applied to the proposed Richards Bay power plant, which may source gas from the Karoo basin or via LNG imports from the US or Australia.
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Document type: Report
TAXATION AND STATE–SOCIETY RELATIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
The report examines taxation in Cameroon, Mozambique, and South Africa, analyzing how formal institutional designs and informal state-society relations affect revenue collection and development. It finds that while technical reforms (like VAT and semi-autonomous revenue authorities) have increased some revenues, deep-seated perceptions of taxation as a colonial tool of oppression, combined with widespread corruption and a lack of transparency, severely undermine tax morale and voluntary compliance across all three nations.
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Document type: Report
2010 Lewis Fry Richardson Lifetime Achievement Award: Ron P. Smith and the Economics of War and Peace
The document outlines the academic career and research of Ron P. Smith, a leading defence economist. It details his work on the economic impacts of military spending, the dynamics of the international arms trade, and the application of econometric methods to peace research. The text highlights Smith's influence on military planning and his critical approach to quantitative methods in conflict research.
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Document type: Report
Transnasjonal praksis
The text explores transnational practice as a spatial phenomenon where human actions and relationships stretch across national borders. It details key manifestations of this practice, including the economic impact of remittances, the symbolic and material role of transnational house building, and the political engagement of diasporas. The author argues that while these practices are central to the lives of migrants, digital technology has expanded transnational activity to a broader segment of the global population.
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Document type: Report
ARMS TRAFFICKING
The document analyzes the illicit arms trade, categorizing it into semi-legal, state-sanctioned, and wholly illicit flows. It argues against the 'amorphous image' of easy global access to weapons, asserting instead that supply and demand are geographically and temporally variable. The authors detail how weapons are diverted from legal stocks, the role of illicit pricing as an indicator of supply constraints, and the multi-level governance structures—societal, national, and international—used to counter trafficking. It also evaluates international instruments like the Arms Trade Treaty and the UN Programme of Action, noting the challenges posed by state complicity and capacity gaps in developing nations.
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Document type: Research paper
Integration and Development: Need for Dialogue
The paper argues that a critical but overlooked link exists between the integration of migrants in settlement countries and their ability to contribute to development in their countries of origin. It identifies eight mechanisms of diaspora contribution—including remittances, entrepreneurship, and political activism—and demonstrates that these are not a zero-sum game with integration; rather, strong integration often supports stronger transnational engagement. The authors call for greater policy coherence and dialogue between the fields of integration, development, and migration management to avoid fragmented or contradictory policies that may hinder these contributions.
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Document type: Research paper
URBANIZATION AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN AFRICA
The authors contend that African urbanization is a demographic megatrend that reshapes politics in diverse, context-specific ways. They reject a uniform 'urban effect,' proposing instead that political changes—such as shifts in citizen preferences, elite incentives, and forms of mobilization—are the direct result of territorially-situated power struggles and the specific social relations produced within built environments. The paper examines six domains: citizen preferences, elite interests, political mobilization, gender roles, civil society, and contentious collective action, highlighting how these are mediated by the unique histories and physical characteristics of different urban places.
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Document type: Research paper
Horizontal inequality and armed conflict: a comprehensive literature review
The review finds strong empirical support for the argument that high levels of group-based economic and political deprivation increase the likelihood of armed conflict, particularly when combined with political exclusion. While economic deprivation is a consistent driver, the role of relative privilege is less clear. The authors highlight significant knowledge gaps regarding social horizontal inequalities, within-group inequality, and the mediating role of perceptions. Methodologically, the paper notes challenges with data quality and endogeneity, suggesting that while the inequality-conflict relationship generally holds under instrumental variable analysis, more granular, individual-level, and non-ethnic group studies are required.
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Document type: Research paper
Inequality and political violence: A review of the literature
The author examines the 'quantitative-qualitative mismatch' in conflict studies, where large-N statistical analyses often find no link between income inequality and violence, while case studies suggest a strong connection. The paper posits that political violence is a group phenomenon and therefore driven by horizontal inequalities (HIs)—systematic disparities between ethnic, religious, or regional groups—rather than vertical inequalities (VI) between individuals. The author proposes a theoretical framework where HIs create both motives (grievances) and opportunities (resources and cohesion) for mobilization. The review concludes that while measuring HIs is challenging, evidence from survey-based data and disaggregated studies supports the link between HIs and various forms of political violence, including civil war and urban disorder.
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Document type: Research paper
Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget
The authors examine the causal links between climate change and armed conflict, finding a significant gap between dramatic political claims of 'climate wars' and actual empirical data. They note a paradox where global warming has accelerated while the number of ongoing conflicts has declined. The paper outlines five potential mechanisms—political instability, social fragmentation, economic instability, migration, and unintended policy consequences—through which environmental stress might indirectly influence conflict, but concludes that these effects are heavily mediated by existing state capacity and socio-political conditions.
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Document type: Research paper