Search Climate Insights Directory

This research report by the Institute for Security Studies assesses South Africa's first year as an elected non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) for the 2019-2020 term. It examines the country's efforts to recalibrate its foreign policy under the Ramaphosa administration, its role in fostering African unity among council members, and its leadership during its October 2019 presidency.

The March 2020 Peace & Security Council Report details the African Union's (AU) response to the COVID-19 pandemic, political instability in Guinea-Bissau and South Sudan, geopolitical competition in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the AU's marginal role in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute. It also outlines South Africa's priorities as the 2020 AU chair, focusing on 'Silencing the Guns', the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and gender equality.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines civil society perspectives on the viability of dialogue between governments in the Lake Chad Basin and violent extremist groups, specifically Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Based on a 2019 workshop with representatives from Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, the document explores the tension between continued militarised responses and the potential for dialogue-based conflict resolution.

This policy brief examines the progress and challenges of integrating youth into the African Union's (AU) peace and security agenda, focusing on the Youth for Peace (Y4P) Africa Program. It outlines the evolution of normative frameworks, the role of the AU's decision-making bodies, and provides recommendations for member states, regional mechanisms, and youth networks to move beyond tokenistic involvement toward meaningful participation.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies argues that South Africa has neglected its historical role as a leader in global peacebuilding and conflict resolution. It calls for a strategic renewal of the country's foreign policy, the professionalisation of its foreign service, and the establishment of a central coordination agency to align peacebuilding with trade and development goals.

This policy brief analyzes Zimbabwe's history of currency instability, noting that the country's failure to align its exchange rate with macroeconomic fundamentals led to hyperinflation and a decade of full dollarisation (2009-2019). The author argues that the 2019 reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar is unlikely to succeed without deep structural reforms, including reducing fiscal deficits, ending the taxation of exporters, and regaining access to international capital markets. As an alternative to the US dollar, the author suggests the adoption of the South African rand to better align with Zimbabwe's trade patterns, provided the South African government agrees.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes South Africa's economic trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic. It compares a 'Current Path' of stagnation with a 'Thuma Mina' scenario based on structural reforms across health, education, energy, industrialization, investment, and agriculture. The author argues that while the pandemic has created a precarious economic situation, it also provides an opportunity to forge a new social compact and implement evidence-based policies to avoid a long-term crisis.

This policy brief analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting state of emergency on political stability in Ethiopia. It argues that while the pandemic initially calmed political rivalries, it may in the medium to long term increase vulnerability to riots and organized violence, particularly regarding governance disputes following the postponement of national elections.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the relationship between armed conflict and forced displacement in Africa. It evaluates the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020' initiative, arguing that while the AU has established necessary infrastructure for early warning and preventive diplomacy, poor governance and structural root causes continue to drive conflict and displacement.

This policy brief describes the revitalisation of the Victim Empowerment Programme (VEP) forum meetings in the Western Cape, South Africa. In partnership with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), the Department of Social Development (DSD) transitioned from conventional meetings to a participatory dialogue methodology to improve collaboration between government and NGO partners providing services for survivors of domestic and sexual violence.

This policy brief details a project in Touwsranten, South Africa, that combined four evidence-based parenting programmes with a community-led social activation process. The initiative used participatory action research to establish shared community values, resulting in a decrease in corporal punishment, a reduction in children's behavioural problems (up to 33%), and improved parent mental health. Key success factors included the partnership with the Seven Passes Initiative and the implementation of contextually relevant activities like community clean-ups and family events.

The December 2019–January 2020 issue of the Peace & Security Council Report examines the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council's (PSC) effectiveness in conflict prevention, the challenges of its membership election process, the AU's efforts to rationalise its numerous external partnerships, and the progress of its Youth, Peace and Security agenda.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the interconnected dynamics of violent extremism, transnational organised crime, and local conflicts in the Liptako-Gourma region, spanning Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Based on approximately 800 interviews, the study argues that extremist groups are pragmatic actors that exploit local economic vulnerabilities, governance failures, and community tensions to sustain their operations and expand their influence.

This report analyses the development trajectories of the G5 Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger) to 2040 using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system. It identifies critical challenges in agriculture, demographics, infrastructure, and governance, while comparing a 'Current Path' forecast against a positive 'Desert Flower' scenario and a dystopian 'Sahelistan' scenario.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the territorial dispute between the self-declared state of Somaliland and the autonomous Puntland State of Somalia over the Sool and Sanaag regions. It analyzes the intersection of colonial legacies, clan dynamics, and national political tensions that drive conflict and hinder resolution.

This monograph examines the use and misuse of less-lethal weapons (LLWs) within South African prisons and by the South African Police Service (SAPS) Public Order Police (POP) units during crowd management from 2013 to 2018. It analyzes the legal and regulatory frameworks of the Department of Correctional Services (DCS) and SAPS, highlighting systemic failures in accountability, the use of equipment as instruments of torture, and the lethal consequences of weapons marketed as 'less-lethal'.

This report by the International Peace Institute and the Institute for Security Studies examines the strategic partnership between the United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU) regarding conflict prevention and crisis management. It analyzes the political dynamics between the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC), the operational coordination between the UN Secretariat and AU Commission, and the thematic effectiveness of their collaboration across areas such as mediation, elections, and the 'Silencing the Guns' initiative.

The October 2019 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines critical security and governance challenges facing the African Union (AU), focusing on the threat of foreign terrorist fighters, the internationalisation of the Libyan conflict, the implementation of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, and the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau.

This report evaluates the effectiveness of the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (the Hawks) as South Africa's principal anti-corruption agency and examines the implications of the 2019 creation of a new Investigating Directorate within the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA). The author argues that the Hawks have historically lacked a dedicated anti-corruption focus and have suffered from political compromise and weak investigative capacity, particularly regarding complex financial crimes. While the new NPA directorate is seen as a necessary step to address high-profile corruption, the report warns of potential inter-agency rivalry and the risk that the Hawks' own specialized capacities may be further neglected.

This report evaluates the internal anti-corruption mechanisms of South Africa's three largest political parties: the African National Congress (ANC), the Democratic Alliance (DA), and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). It concludes that while formal policies exist, their practical application is often undermined by political considerations, hierarchical structures, and a preference for party solidarity over probity.