Why Africa’s development models must change

The report contends that mainstream development models, which predict growth through a shift from agriculture to industrial manufacturing, have failed in Africa. It identifies five dynamic trends—climate change, rapid urbanisation, infrastructure deficits, epidemics/pandemics, and lawlessness—that interact to increase instability. These trends are exacerbated by three structural realities: pervasive informality, weak land management, and the proliferation of organised crime, often led by state actors. The authors argue that because the state is frequently compromised by criminal networks, development strategies should move away from state-centric models and instead focus on enhancing the resilience and resource control of local neighbourhoods and communities.

• Traditional development models based on the movement of labour from low-productivity agriculture to higher-productivity manufacturing and services have not occurred as forecast in Africa; instead, rural-to-urban migration has led to increased informality and insecurity.
• Informality is a dominant feature of African economies, with the informal sector accounting for an estimated 5080 percent of GDP and 6080 percent of employment as of 2018.
• Climate change acts as a risk multiplier in Africa, increasing the probability of instability through rainfall variability, threats to food and water security, and the displacement of up to 85 million people.
• African urbanisation is occurring at the fastest rate globally, but is characterised by systemic failure, with 6275% of urban housing being informal and costs for food and housing being 35% and 55% higher than in comparable developing countries.
• Infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa lags behind all other developing regions, with an annual spending deficit where needs are $130$170 billion but spending is only approximately US$75 billion.
• Lawlessness is pervasive and normalized, with embedded state actors serving as the most virulent type of organised criminal entrepreneurs, rendering traditional 'strong state' reforms ineffective.
• Land management is critically weak across the continent, with more than 90% of rural land being uncadastred, untitled, and/or unregistered.
• The interaction of climate change, poor infrastructure, and rapid urbanisation creates 'low-growth poverty traps' in African cities, particularly in secondary and medium-sized cities which are the least prepared.
• Development models should be overhauled to limit the role of the state to coordination and financing, instead prioritising the resilience and resource management of local neighbourhood and community actors.

APA

Scheye, E., & Pelser, E. (2020). Why Africa’s development models must change. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-26.pdf

Chicago

Scheye, Eric, and Eric Pelser. Why Africa’s development models must change. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-26.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Scheye |first1=Eric |last2=Pelser |first2=Eric |title=Why Africa’s development models must change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=September 2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-26.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{scheye2020why, author = {Scheye, Eric and Pelser, Eric}, title = {{Why Africa’s development models must change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-26.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }