Search Climate Insights Directory

Three companies—GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power—control two-thirds of the global market for gas turbines in power plants currently under construction. While these firms are expanding through regional partnerships and promoting 'hydrogen-ready' technology, the report argues they face significant geopolitical and financial risks due to the rapid growth of renewables and the potential for gas power overcapacity.

Brazil is positioned as a potential global leader in green steel due to high-quality iron ore and vast renewable energy resources, though its industry remains heavily reliant on coal-based blast furnaces. While the country leads in biochar use, a full transition requires shifting to electric arc furnaces (EAF) and green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI). The report emphasizes that strategic policy and the upcoming COP30 summit are critical to overcoming the longevity of existing coal-based infrastructure and the high capital costs of new technologies.

China has significantly reduced coal power plant approvals in early 2024 as massive additions of wind and solar power meet incremental electricity demand. While construction of previously permitted projects remains high, the shift toward clean energy is driving a decline in coal power generation and signaling a potential peak in CO2 emissions before 2030.

China is expanding its nuclear power capacity faster than any other country in the 21st century, with nearly half of the world's nuclear power under construction located there. While China's operational capacity of 58.1 GW currently ranks third globally, its prospective capacity of 118 GW positions it to potentially overtake France and the United States. The buildout is shifting toward Generation III and IV reactors, including the domestically developed Hualong One and the first commercial Generation IV unit, the HTR-PM. However, a moratorium on inland plants following the 2011 Fukushima disaster has led to the cancellation of 201 GW of capacity, though some sites have been repurposed for wind and solar energy.

China is leading global renewable energy deployment with 339 GW of utility-scale solar and wind power under construction, nearly double the capacity of the rest of the world combined. By the first quarter of 2024, wind and solar accounted for 37% of China's total power capacity. While the country is on track to potentially reach 1,200 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2024, significant obstacles remain, including a reliance on coal to mitigate intermittency, insufficient Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission lines, and rising curtailment rates in several provinces.

The 2024 'Pedal to the Metal' report by Global Energy Monitor finds a significant shift toward lower-emissions electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking in new announcements, with 93% of newly announced capacity following this route. However, a substantial gap exists between announcements and construction, as less than 14% of potential EAF capacity is currently being built, and 46% of projects under construction remain based on basic oxygen furnaces (BOF). While direct reduced iron (DRI) now makes up 36% of developing ironmaking capacity, 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace capacity is still under development globally, primarily driven by India and China, posing a risk of carbon lock-in.

China is significantly leading global renewable energy deployment, with utility-scale wind and solar projects under construction totaling 339 GW—double the combined total of all other countries. While China is on track to meet its 2030 target of 1.2 billion kW of wind and solar capacity years ahead of schedule, it faces critical challenges regarding grid stability, reliance on coal for intermittency regulation, and high curtailment rates in northern and northwestern provinces.

The Western Balkans have over 23 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind projects, a 70% increase from the previous year. This capacity could render proposed gas-fired power plants obsolete, potentially averting 103 million tonnes of lifetime CO2 emissions and saving over €9 billion in energy costs and stranded assets. Currently, operating utility-scale solar and wind account for only 7% of the regional electricity mix (1.5 GW). Serbia leads the region in both operating (29%) and prospective (47%) capacity, though its construction rate is among the lowest. The report argues that the region should prioritize a just energy transition over gas-fired power, which is being promoted by EU, U.S., and Russian interests, to avoid carbon lock-in and import dependence.

The 2024 Global Steel Plant Tracker and Global Blast Furnace Tracker data show a growing momentum toward electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, with 49% of capacity under development using this route. However, significant carbon lock-in risks persist as 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace capacity is under development, primarily in Asia. India has surpassed China as the top overall steel developer, though China remains the largest operator of emissions-intensive capacity. While direct reduced iron (DRI) capacity is increasing, its climate impact depends on the transition to green hydrogen reducing agents, as much current capacity relies on methane or coal.

The document argues that the U.S. Department of Energy's environmental analysis of LNG exports must account for the higher methane emission rates and weaker regulatory enforcement in Mexico compared to the U.S. It highlights that planned export capacity through Mexico totals 8.55 Bcf/d, which could significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions. The authors also emphasize the disproportionate impact of these projects on marginalized and Indigenous communities in Mexico, noting high levels of industrial pollution and security risks for environmental defenders in states like Sonora and Sinaloa.

Spain is a European leader in commercial-scale solar energy, with the highest operational capacity (29.5 GW) and a massive pipeline of projects. However, to meet its 2030 targets of 81 GW of solar and 62 GW of wind, the country must overcome permitting bottlenecks, low adoption of small-scale rooftop solar, and infrastructure limitations. While solar targets are achievable given the current pipeline, wind energy requires a significant acceleration in deployment rates.

The briefing reports that underground coal mines in the EU closed since 2015 may emit approximately 200 kt of methane per year, with Poland being the largest contributor. It notes that active coal mine emissions in the EU are likely underestimated, with GEM estimates being 36% higher than IEA figures. The report emphasizes that emissions from abandoned mines persist for years unless flooded, but data on the flooding status of over 60% of analyzed mines remains unknown, creating significant uncertainty in estimates.

The author contends that the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline would undermine China's energy security by increasing dependence on Russia, create unnecessary capital expenditure in an oversaturated market, and conflict with China's goal to peak carbon emissions by 2030.

The report argues that Southeast Asia is at an energy crossroads, where planned gas infrastructure expansion could lock the region into economically volatile fuels and high capital costs, while renewable energy offers a cost-competitive and sustainable alternative. It highlights that in-development gas power and LNG projects would require over $220 billion in investment and could double the region's gas-fired capacity. The document details specific national strategies in Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, noting a trend of viewing gas as a 'transitional fuel'. It further critiques the role of international finance, particularly from Japan and South Korea, and the promotion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as potential delays to the energy transition. Conversely, it presents data showing that utility-scale solar and wind could meet nearly two-thirds of the projected increase in energy demand by 2030, provided that grid infrastructure and cross-border electricity trade, such as the ASEAN Power Grid, are developed.

Global operating coal capacity increased by 48.4 GW in 2023, reaching a total of 2,130 GW, primarily driven by a surge of new plants in China. While construction starts hit record lows outside of China, China's new construction starts reached an eight-year high of 70.2 GW. Despite a growing number of countries committing to 'No New Coal', 75% of global operating coal capacity still lacks a specific closure commitment, hindering alignment with the Paris Agreement goals.

The January 2024 pause on non-FTA LNG export authorizations affects 88.9 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of proposed capacity, representing one-quarter of all U.S. export capacity in development. The briefing argues that this pause curbs an overbuild of LNG infrastructure without harming Europe's energy security, as U.S. export capacity is still expected to increase by over 50% through 2026 from unaffected projects, while European gas demand is forecast to decline.

The 2024 'Boom and Bust' report finds that while many countries are reducing coal capacity, global operational capacity grew by 2% in 2023 to 2,130 GW, driven largely by China. China's new coal construction reached an eight-year high, contradicting its 2021 pledge to strictly control new projects. Globally, only 15% of operational coal capacity is committed to retirement aligned with the 1.5°C goal. While construction outside China hit a nine-year low, new planning in India, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia remains a challenge, and captive coal plants are emerging as a persistent loophole.

The report highlights a contradictory global trend: while most countries are reducing coal construction and many are committing to phase-outs, global coal capacity increased by 11% since 2015, reaching a record high in 2023. This growth is driven primarily by China, which accounted for two-thirds of the 2023 increase. Outside China, new construction starts reached their lowest level since 2015. The report notes that only 15% of global operational capacity has a documented phase-out plan aligned with the 1.5°C goal. Regional analyses show significant progress in the EU and UK, though some countries lag behind 2030 targets, and a volatile situation in Sub-Saharan Africa where South Africa remains heavily dependent on coal despite an energy crisis.

The report finds that global coal capacity reached a record high in 2023, totaling 2,130 GW, driven largely by China. While new construction starts reached a nine-year low outside China, they hit an eight-year high within China. Only 15% of global operating coal capacity has retirement commitments aligned with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. In Indonesia, the transition is hindered by the rapid growth of 'captive' coal plants for nickel smelting, a reduction in renewable energy targets, and a financial taxonomy that classifies captive coal as 'transition' activities.

This document is a Japanese translation of an excerpt from the 'Boom & Bust Coal 2024' report by Global Energy Monitor and its partners. It tracks global coal-fired power plant plans as of April 2024, highlighting a contradiction where global coal capacity reached record highs in 2023 despite a general trend of shrinking development pipelines in most countries except China.