US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security

The January 2024 pause on non-FTA LNG export authorizations affects 88.9 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of proposed capacity, representing one-quarter of all U.S. export capacity in development. The briefing argues that this pause curbs an overbuild of LNG infrastructure without harming Europe's energy security, as U.S. export capacity is still expected to increase by over 50% through 2026 from unaffected projects, while European gas demand is forecast to decline.

• The Biden Administration's pause on non-FTA LNG export authorizations impacts 88.9 mtpa of proposed capacity, which constitutes 25% of all export capacity currently in development in the United States and 10% of the global total.
• The pause has minimal near-term effects on U.S. exports, as only 14% of potential capacity additions between 2024 and 2026 (17.2 mtpa) are affected. U.S. export capacity is projected to grow by more than 50% over the next three years due to projects that are already under construction or have reached final investment decisions.
• European energy security is not compromised by the pause because the region is already receiving sufficient U.S. LNG and its gas demand is expected to fall. The IEEFA forecasts EU gas demand could decrease by 16% by 2030, with LNG demand peaking in 2025.
• Sustaining the halt of these projects could significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, with potential annual emissions from the affected projects reaching up to 381 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• The pause affects twelve U.S. projects and two projects in Mexico: the Saguaro Energía LNG Terminal (6.13 mtpa) and the New Fortress Altamira FLNG Terminal (3.07 mtpa).

APA

Rozansky, R. (2024). US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/us-lng-pause-curbs-its-export-overbuild-without-compromising-europes-energy-security

Chicago

Rozansky, Robert. US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security. Global Energy Monitor, 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/us-lng-pause-curbs-its-export-overbuild-without-compromising-europes-energy-security.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rozansky |first1=Robert |title=US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=29 April 2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/us-lng-pause-curbs-its-export-overbuild-without-compromising-europes-energy-security |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rozansky2024lng, author = {Rozansky, Robert}, title = {{US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, month = apr, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/us-lng-pause-curbs-its-export-overbuild-without-compromising-europes-energy-security}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }