US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security

This briefing by Global Energy Monitor analyzes the impact of the Biden Administration's January 2024 pause on non-Free Trade Agreement (non-FTA) LNG export authorizations. It argues that the pause curbs a potential overbuild of U.S. export capacity without threatening European energy security, as U.S. capacity is still expected to grow significantly and European gas demand is forecast to decline.

• The January 2024 pause on non-FTA LNG export authorizations affects 88.9 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of proposed capacity, which represents 25% of all export capacity currently in development in the United States and 10% of such capacity globally.
• The pause has minimal near-term effects on U.S. exports, impacting only 14% of potential capacity additions (17.2 mtpa) between 2024 and 2026. During this same period, U.S. LNG export capacity is expected to increase by more than 50% through projects that are already under construction or have reached final investment decisions.
• The pause does not compromise European energy security because the U.S. is already exceeding its LNG commitments to Europe and EU gas demand is projected to decrease. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) predicts EU gas demand could drop 16% by 2030, with LNG demand peaking in 2025.
• Sustaining the halt of these projects could significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, with potential annual emissions from the affected projects estimated at up to 381 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent, a figure comparable to nearly 100 coal plants.
• Beyond the U.S., the pause affects two projects in Mexico: the Saguaro Energía LNG Terminal (6.13 mtpa) and the New Fortress Altamira FLNG Terminal (3.07 mtpa), both of which are awaiting DOE approval.

APA

Rozansky, R. (2024). US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/us-lng-pause-curbs-its-export-overbuild-without-compromising-europes-energy-security

Chicago

Rozansky, Robert. US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security. Global Energy Monitor, 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/us-lng-pause-curbs-its-export-overbuild-without-compromising-europes-energy-security.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rozansky |first1=Robert |title=US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=29 April 2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/us-lng-pause-curbs-its-export-overbuild-without-compromising-europes-energy-security |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rozansky2024lng, author = {Rozansky, Robert}, title = {{US LNG pause curbs its export overbuild without compromising Europe’s energy security}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, month = apr, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/us-lng-pause-curbs-its-export-overbuild-without-compromising-europes-energy-security}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }