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The report identifies 2023 as the likely peak for global power sector emissions, forecasting a decline in 2024 driven by record solar and wind additions. While electricity demand is expected to rise due to electrification, data centres, and air conditioning, the growth of clean energy is projected to outpace this demand. The document highlights that tripling renewable capacity by 2030 could halve power sector emissions. It also provides case studies of China, Brazil, and the Netherlands to demonstrate how high-level ambition, incentive mechanisms, and the removal of technical barriers can accelerate the transition regardless of geographic or economic starting points.

Singapore's path to net-zero by 2050 depends heavily on importing renewable energy from neighboring countries due to severe domestic land constraints. While the Singapore Green Plan 2030 targets 2 GW of solar and 4 GW of imports, analysis suggests these must be significantly scaled up—potentially to 16 GW of imports by 2045—to align with IEA net-zero milestones. Such a transition would reduce per capita power sector emissions by 52-58% by 2035 and decrease reliance on volatile gas prices. The report emphasizes that Singapore's financial capacity allows it to lead regional grid investments, such as the LTMS-PIP and potential links to India and the UAE, to secure its energy future and accelerate Southeast Asia's clean energy transition.

The report highlights that EU power system flexibility needs are expected to double by 2030 as renewables are projected to reach 66% of electricity generation. It identifies battery storage and demand side flexibility (DSF) as critical but under-utilised tools to replace fossil fuel backup and reduce renewable curtailment. While battery capacity doubled to 16 GW in 2023, the report notes a significant lack of explicit 2030 targets for storage and DSF in national policy documents. It calls for improved data transparency, the removal of regulatory barriers for distributed energy resources, and the inclusion of flexibility targets in National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs).

The document argues that rapid deployment of clean flexibility—specifically battery storage, demand-side flexibility, and grids—is essential to avoid renewable energy curtailment and price cannibalisation in the EU. It recommends that Member States integrate clean flexibility into National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and national strategies before 2026, introduce curtailment caps for countries with over 50% renewable generation, and create local constraint markets. Additionally, it calls for legal frameworks that allow distributed flexibility sources to participate in energy markets, improved data transparency on network congestion and storage capacity, and the use of time-of-use tariffs to incentivise consumer participation while protecting low-income households.

The G7 is urged to set a goal to triple its renewable energy capacity by 2030, as current collective targets only aim for a doubling. This alignment is presented as necessary to meet the global goal agreed upon at COP28 and to keep the 1.5C temperature goal within reach.

The policy brief highlights a disconnect between European transmission system operator (TSO) grid plans and actual energy policy targets or market outlooks. It argues that current regulatory requirements, which force TSOs to rely on outdated national legislation, lead to under-planned capacity and increased grid congestion. The author recommends that the European Commission provide guidance on anticipatory planning and that national regulators expand their oversight to assess the adequacy of grid plans beyond mere cost implications.

Ember reports that Germany's official coal mine methane (CMM) emissions are likely underestimated by 28 to 220 times. The current reporting relies on a single emission factor from a 1989 study that does not account for depth, geological variability, or surrounding strata. Independent estimates suggest annual emissions could be as high as 307,000 tonnes, compared to the 1.39 thousand tonnes officially reported for 2022. Ember recommends that Germany implement deposit-specific emission factors, direct measurements for active and closed mines, and pre-mine drainage to mitigate emissions.

The policy brief asserts that for the global goal of tripling renewable capacity to be met, G7 nations must collectively increase their capacity from 0.9 TW in 2022 to 2.7 TW by 2030. Current G7 targets only amount to 2 TW, representing a doubling rather than a tripling, and leaving a 0.7 TW gap. While Germany and the UK have targets reaching at least 80% of a tripling, France and Japan are lagging, and the US and Canada lack official targets.

This report by Ember analyzes the alignment between the ten-year grid development plans of European Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and national energy policy targets for 2030. It highlights a risk that transmission grids may become physical barriers to the energy transition if infrastructure planning is based on under-ambitious renewable energy scenarios.

The report finds that many European national transmission grid plans are based on under-ambitious energy scenarios that lag behind current policy targets and market trends, particularly for solar power. This misalignment risks creating grid bottlenecks that could hinder the deployment of renewables by 2030. While there is a trend toward increasing grid expansion and the adoption of 'non-wire solutions' to alleviate congestion, the report argues that political prioritization and regulatory reform are needed to ensure infrastructure keeps pace with the accelerating energy transition.

Indonesia is significantly underreporting its coal mine methane (CMM) emissions, with official figures being six to seven times lower than independent estimates. The report identifies critical flaws in the current reporting framework, including the use of inaccurate emission factors, outdated global warming potential (GWP) values, and the total exclusion of underground coal mines. These gaps risk undermining Indonesia's commitments under the Global Methane Pledge. The author recommends transitioning to higher-tier IPCC estimation methods, implementing data disaggregation at the mine level, and improving public transparency to ensure climate targets are met and mine worker safety is enhanced.

In 2023, Türkiye became Europe's second-largest coal-fired electricity generator, producing a record 118 TWh, with coal's share of total generation rising to 36%. This trend was driven by imported coal, primarily from Russia, which accounted for 73% of imports and 22% of total electricity generation. While solar capacity grew to over 12 GW, wind installations hit a 13-year low of 411 MW. The report notes that Türkiye's trajectory diverges from the EU, where coal generation halved since 2016. Despite a 2053 net-zero target, the National Energy Plan still forecasts new coal and gas capacity by 2035, and the report argues that rooftop solar potential (120 GW) remains underutilised.

The report analyzes the energy strategy of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) countries, finding that planned LNG and pipeline capacity will significantly exceed projected gas demand by 2030. It warns that this creates a risk of stranded assets and security vulnerabilities due to global price volatility. The author advocates for shifting investment from gas infrastructure to wind, solar, and grid interconnectors, noting that 3SI countries could reach a 67% renewable electricity share by 2030.

The report highlights that hybrid solar capacity in Turkey reached 510 MW by 2024, pushing total solar capacity to 12.2 GW and surpassing wind capacity. It emphasizes the role of wind-solar hybrids in stabilizing production and identifies a significant project pipeline of 1.9 GW. The document also explores the potential for floating solar on hydroelectric reservoirs, estimating a 17 GW potential across five major dams.

Türkiye's total solar capacity reached 12.2 GW by early 2024, surpassing wind capacity once 510 MW of secondary solar capacity from hybrid power plants is included. These hybrid plants, which combine a primary and secondary energy source at one location, are predominantly wind-solar combinations. While 1.9 GW of hybrid solar capacity is currently in the pipeline, the report highlights a lack of transparent capacity planning and the untapped potential of floating solar on hydroelectric reservoirs, which could provide up to 17 GW of capacity across five major plants.

Bulgaria is at a pivotal energy transition point as coal's share of electricity generation fell below 30% in 2023. While solar power has grown rapidly, wind energy has stagnated since 2012. The report highlights a technical offshore wind potential of 4.3-5 GW in the maritime exclusive economic zone near Romania, which could lower wholesale power prices by 45% by 2030 if combined with increased onshore wind and better interconnections. To achieve this, the report recommends the swift adoption of a new offshore wind law, the implementation of Contracts-for-Difference (CfDs), and the update of the National Energy and Climate Plan with explicit 2030 targets.

Ember's submission to the NSW Parliament inquiry into Net Zero highlights that the coal mining sector is the biggest potential risk to the state's emission goals. The document argues that existing federal mechanisms, such as the Safeguard Mechanism and the Coal Mine Waste Gas method, are insufficient to drive material onsite reductions. Using Tahmoor Colliery as a case study, Ember demonstrates that Ventilation Air Methane (VAM) mitigation via Regenerative Thermal Oxidiser (RTO) technology is technically and commercially feasible but underutilised due to a lack of state-led regulatory pressure and the availability of carbon offsets. The submission calls for a pause on new coal mine expansions and a dedicated report from the Net Zero Commission by June 2025 to assess sectoral risks and develop a coal-specific emissions target.

In 2023, the EU electricity sector saw a record 19% decline in power sector emissions and a 3.4% year-on-year drop in electricity demand. Clean sources now account for two-thirds of the EU power mix, while fossil fuels have decreased to one-third of generation, down from over half in 2000.

In 2023, EU fossil fuel generation fell to less than a third of the electricity mix (33%) for the first time, driven by a record 26% drop in coal generation. Wind and solar combined for 27% of EU electricity, with wind surpassing gas power for the first time. While solar capacity grew by 56 GW, wind generation growth remains inconsistent and below the 15% annual increase needed for REPowerEU targets. EU electricity demand fell by 3.4% in 2023 to its lowest level since 2001, though a rise of 2-3% is projected for 2024. To support this transition, the EU requires significant grid investments—estimated at €584 billion by 2030—and an increase in storage capacity to 200 GW by 2030 to manage variable renewable energy and reduce curtailment.

The document provides a submission to the Federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) regarding the review of the Coal Mine Waste Gas (CMWG) method. Ember argues that the CMWG method is a critical supplementary incentive for decarbonising the resource sector, particularly for metallurgical coal, and should be extended beyond 2025. The submission specifically advocates for expanding the method's eligibility to include open cut mines, as current regulatory frameworks like the Safeguard Mechanism may perversely reward lower-emitting open cut mines. Ember also suggests improving measurement and verification by moving away from state-based emissions factors toward site-specific measurements and top-down verification. Additionally, the document proposes that the CMWG could help manage increasing electricity demand in the mining sector by using waste gas to 'firm' renewable energy output and could potentially incentivise the mitigation of abandoned mine methane.