Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition

This report by Ember analyzes the alignment between the ten-year grid development plans of European Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and national energy policy targets for 2030. It highlights a risk that transmission grids may become physical barriers to the energy transition if infrastructure planning is based on under-ambitious renewable energy scenarios.

• Analysis of 26 available grid plans reveals a misalignment between TSO scenarios and national policy targets for wind and solar capacity by 2030. Ten of these plans utilize scenarios with lower ambition than the established targets, resulting in a total capacity gap of 65 GW, which represents approximately 8% of the total capacity targeted by those specific countries.
• The discrepancy between grid planning and policy is severe in some nations; for example, Bulgaria's grid development plan forecasts 4.1 GW of wind and solar for 2030, while its national policy target exceeds 11 GW, a difference of 63%. Such under-ambitious planning risks overlooking necessary investments and delaying the development of infrastructure needed to support renewable roll-outs.
• Conversely, four countries—Croatia, Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands—have grid plans based on scenarios more ambitious than their national targets, preparing for an additional 81 GW of wind and solar. In Finland, the TSO's scenarios are up to 200% higher than existing targets to ensure the network is prepared for the energy transition rather than just short-term challenges.
• European TSOs are required by Directive (EU) 2019/944 to publish ten-year grid plans roughly every two years to ensure security of supply and decarbonization. These internal transmission network plans are distinct from the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) produced by the European Network of TSOs for electricity, which focuses solely on cross-border transmission lines.

APA

Ember (2024). Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/putting-the-mission-in-transmission-grids-for-europes-energy-transition

Chicago

Ember. Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition. 2024. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/putting-the-mission-in-transmission-grids-for-europes-energy-transition.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition |date=13 March 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/putting-the-mission-in-transmission-grids-for-europes-energy-transition |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2024putting, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/putting-the-mission-in-transmission-grids-for-europes-energy-transition}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }