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The report details the proceedings of the 4th GCPC, highlighting the critical need for a science-policy interface amidst rising populism and funding cuts. It identifies governance and finance as overarching challenges, while specifically examining urban adaptation, land use coordination, trade regulations under WTO norms, and the necessity of a just energy transition in the Global South.

The report details the proceedings of the 4th GCPC, highlighting the critical need for a science-policy interface amidst rising populism and funding cuts. It identifies governance and finance as overarching challenges, while specifically examining urban adaptation, land use coordination, trade regulations under WTO rules, and the necessity of a 'just transition' in the energy sector. The document emphasizes the role of regional networks and institutional experimentation in overcoming climate inertia.

The report examines the transition of the European basic materials sector (cement, steel, paper, aluminium, chemicals) toward carbon neutrality by 2050. It identifies that these sectors account for approximately 16% of European GHG emissions. Through analysis of Hungary, Poland, and Spain, the document highlights a prevalence of short-term policy focuses on carbon leakage and energy costs over long-term structural transformation. It proposes a policy package consisting of carbon pricing mechanisms (Border Tax Adjustments or Inclusion of Consumption), low-emission and circularity standards, and Contracts for Differences (CCfDs) to incentivise breakthrough technologies and ensure a cost-competitive supply of low-carbon electricity.

The document defines a 'Just Transition' as a framework to ensure that the shift toward a green economy is fair and inclusive, preventing vulnerable populations from bearing disproportionate costs. It traces the concept's evolution from 1980s US trade union concerns over pollution regulations to a broader global framework integrated into the UNFCCC and the 2015 Paris Agreement. The text emphasizes three types of justice—procedural, distributional, and restorative—and argues that transition planning must be participatory and cross-governmental. Using Malawi's agricultural mechanization as an example, it illustrates how top-down transitions can marginalize smallholder farmers despite overall GDP growth. While historically focused on the energy sector and fossil fuel phase-outs, the document asserts that Just Transition principles are equally critical for sectors like agriculture, transport, waste, and forestry, especially regarding adaptation priorities in the global south.

The document argues that meaningful participation from diverse, affected groups is essential for a just transition to ensure procedural justice, improve policy efficiency, and increase ownership of climate policies. It identifies barriers to engagement, such as time constraints, costs, and low trust, and suggests a people-centered design approach to overcome them. The text highlights the necessity of coordination bodies to manage state and non-state actors across different political levels. Examples include Costa Rica's Just Transition Governance Scheme and South Africa's Presidential Climate Commission, both of which serve as platforms for multi-stakeholder collaboration and policy co-creation.

The 'Just Transition Compass' provides a strategic framework to move just transition concepts from high-level dialogue to scalable implementation. It identifies four core elements of a just transition: addressing existing injustices, aligning structural changes with Paris Agreement goals, ensuring meaningful stakeholder participation, and fair distribution of costs and benefits. The document argues that national transitions cannot succeed without international cooperation and proposes the creation of a permanent Just Transition coordination body within the UNFCCC to reduce fragmentation, align financial flows, and share best practices across sectors beyond energy, such as agriculture and transport.

The document examines the concept of 'just resilience,' which seeks to ensure that climate adaptation does not create new winners and losers or reinforce existing marginalisation. It identifies three core dimensions of justice—distributive, procedural, and recognition—and argues that adaptation must address structural drivers of vulnerability such as wealth, gender, and ethnicity. The paper highlights maladaptation risks, where technical solutions can inadvertently increase long-term risks or displace vulnerable groups. It reviews policy examples from Australia, South Africa, the EU, and Canada, and discusses emerging trends like the rights of nature and locally led adaptation. Finally, it addresses barriers to implementation, including resource constraints and the need for equitable international climate finance mechanisms.

The Just Transition Planning Masterclass provided a platform for stakeholders from Kenya, Ghana, Namibia, and Uganda to explore how to manage the socio-economic disruptions of sustainable development transitions. The program combined webinars and an in-person workshop in Nairobi to discuss the definition of a 'just transition', the role of standalone frameworks versus integrated policies, and the impact of colonial resource extraction on current fiscal and governance capacities. Key findings highlight significant barriers to implementation, including a lack of disaggregated data for impact analysis, difficulties in accounting for the informal economy, and limited funding for the social components of transition, such as stakeholder dialogue and re-skilling. The report concludes with a set of best practices for developing holistic impact understandings, enabling participatory decision-making, and ensuring policy cohesion through co-created justice indicators.

The document describes a project to bridge the gap in the practical application of just transition concepts within developing countries. By analyzing South America, Southeast Asia, and West Africa—with case studies on Colombia, Indonesia, and Ghana—the project identifies that these nations often lack the regulatory and institutional capacity to support just transitions. Key findings highlight a high prevalence of informal labor markets (often 50% to 80% of the workforce) that are currently overlooked in climate and pandemic responses. The project seeks to develop recommendations for revised NDCs ahead of COP26 and facilitate links between governments, investors, and donors to provide the necessary technical and financial support.

The Augures! project's 2023/2024 results evaluate the accuracy of seasonal weather forecasts and their ability to predict crop yields and economic impacts. Findings indicate that temperature anomalies are most accurately predicted in Southeastern Europe during summer months, while wheat and maize yields in Greece can be forecast 3-4 and 2 months in advance, respectively. The report emphasizes that extreme weather events cannot be predicted months in advance, necessitating investment in disaster preparedness, and calls for better farm management data to improve socio-economic impact predictions regarding poverty and food security.

The report details a workshop in Panama aimed at moving Just Transition from dialogue to implementation. It presents case studies from the Dominican Republic, Spain, and Brazil, and synthesizes group discussions on creating a Just Transition taxonomy, defining monitoring indicators, and establishing core guiding principles to support developing countries and the COP30 presidency.

Climate Strategies' 2026-2029 strategy focuses on bridging the gap between research and policy to drive systemic climate change mitigation and adaptation. The organization identifies five strategic impact areas: transitioning oil- and gas-dependent economies, enhancing nature-based food systems, empowering the global majority, governing carbon and climate innovation technologies, and countering climate obstruction. To achieve these, the organization plans to transform its business model by enhancing horizon scanning, diversifying its membership, engaging the private sector through blended models, and strengthening its Secretariat's operational capacity.

The document argues that current plastic production and consumption are unsustainable and that solutions must be applied based on specific product applications to avoid trade-offs between durability, biodegradability, and recyclability. It highlights the risks of chemical additives and the inefficiency of waste management systems, particularly the export of plastic waste from Europe to Asia. The authors propose a comprehensive definition of sustainable plastics based on environmental, economic, and social criteria to guide the UNEP's international policy instrument.

The briefing examines the applicability of transitional justice mechanisms—prosecution, lustration, amnesties, truth commissions, reparations, and institutional changes—to the climate context. It argues that while direct legal prosecution or truth commissions are unlikely, the logic of these tools can inform the UNFCCC's approach to loss and damage, historical emissions reporting, and the creation of a more legitimate, forward-oriented climate regime.

Indonesia faces significant structural barriers to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, including an unstable policy environment, inconsistent signals regarding fossil fuel subsidies, and a lack of coordinated strategy across sectors. The country requires approximately $200 billion annually for its climate agenda, yet domestic public budget contributions from 20152020 averaged only $4.5 billion. To address these gaps, the briefing suggests three key interventions: the use of blended finance to de-risk renewable energy projects like geothermal power, the operationalization of 'Just Transition' principles through the Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership (INO-JETP), and the implementation of multi-level coordination mechanisms to engage sub-national governments and standardize greenhouse gas reporting.

The document examines Azerbaijan's transition from a fossil-fuel-dependent economy to one incorporating renewable energy, highlighting the role of COP29 as a catalyst for climate ambition. It identifies key risks, such as the economic reliance on oil rents and the potential for renewables to merely supplement rather than replace hydrocarbons. The author recommends developing a targeted energy transition strategy, protecting vulnerable groups from subsidy removals, and increasing private sector competition to ensure a just and sustainable transition.

The document analyzes Brazil's unique energy landscape, where a predominantly renewable electricity mix coexists with a significant reliance on petroleum for transport and a growing oil production sector. It highlights the tension between the government's climate commitments and its plans to expand oil production, particularly in the Equatorial Margin. The briefing suggests that Brazil can leverage its G20 and COP30 leadership to promote the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies and use oil revenues to fund green innovation and forest conservation, while recommending the introduction of an upstream carbon tax to manage environmental externalities.

Ghana is navigating a contradictory energy landscape where the government pursues both petroleum exploration and a net-zero target by 2070. While the National Energy Transition Framework (2022-2070) outlines a path toward decarbonization, the country's energy mix remains heavily dependent on oil and gas, which provided 64.1% of the energy supply as of April 2024. The transition is complicated by a top-down technocratic approach that has led to public resistance against policies like the ban on salvaged vehicles and carbon levies on petrol and diesel cars. Furthermore, there is a tension between domestic desires to utilize all available fossil resources for economic growth and global donor-driven pressures to accelerate the phase-out of hydrocarbons. The document recommends operationalizing a National Energy Transition Fund, improving procedural justice through public engagement, and harmonizing donor engagement to ensure a more equitable transition.

The briefing argues that while the transition away from fossil fuels is accelerating due to economic costs, clean energy opportunities, and geopolitical drivers, significant gaps remain in production and emissions. It highlights the vulnerability of fossil-fuel-dependent nations and the need for a 'globally just transition' supported by redirected finance, debt relief, and stronger governance to avoid economic disruption and systemic financial risks.

The document analyzes Nigeria's struggle to balance its economic reliance on oil and gas with climate ambitions. It highlights the risk of 'carbon lock-in' through policies like the Petroleum Industry Act and the fiscal vulnerability of sub-national governments. It proposes shifting from a natural-resource-dependent model to one based on high-value manufacturing and services, leveraging renewable energy and critical minerals like lithium. Key recommendations include developing multi-sectoral transition policies, securing international climate finance, and implementing social protections for displaced workers and the Niger Delta region.