BRIEFING: INTERNATIONAL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS

The briefing argues that while the transition away from fossil fuels is accelerating due to economic costs, clean energy opportunities, and geopolitical drivers, significant gaps remain in production and emissions. It highlights the vulnerability of fossil-fuel-dependent nations and the need for a 'globally just transition' supported by redirected finance, debt relief, and stronger governance to avoid economic disruption and systemic financial risks.

• There is a significant 'production gap' between planned fossil fuel extraction and the levels compatible with 1.5 or 2 °C trajectories, and an 'emissions gap' between government commitments and the action required for the Paris Agreement.
• The transition is driven by severe economic risks, including the potential for 60-80% of publicly listed fossil fuel reserves to become 'unburnable', which could cost the industry USD 28 trillion in revenue over 20 years. Additionally, global fossil fuel subsidies are estimated at USD 11 million per minute.
• Clean energy transformation offers substantial economic benefits, with IRENA estimating a 2.5% boost to global GDP and 0.2% increase in total employment by 2050, with cumulative health, subsidy, and climate savings of USD 160 trillion over 30 years.
• Investment in clean energy is increasing, with USD 1.7 trillion of the USD 2.8 trillion invested in energy in 2023 going toward clean energy. However, this spending is heavily concentrated in the US, EU, and China.
• Fossil-fuel-dependent nations face acute vulnerabilities, including fiscal deficits, debt, and currency instability. About half of 76 lower-income countries have proven fossil fuel reserves and are planning to expand extraction.
• Global finance is currently misallocated; fossil fuel subsidies in 51 major economies were 40% higher than total global climate finance investment between 2011 and 2020. In 2022, global fossil fuel subsidies reached USD 7 trillion, or nearly 7.1% of global GDP.
• To limit warming to 1.5°C, the IPCC estimates a need for USD 48.75 trillion over the next 15 years. However, 90% of current clean energy investment is captured by China, the US, Europe, Brazil, Japan, and India.

APA

Climate Strategies (n.d.). BRIEFING: INTERNATIONAL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/PPFF-Briefing-International-Final.pdf

Chicago

Climate Strategies. BRIEFING: INTERNATIONAL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS. n.d. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/PPFF-Briefing-International-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Strategies |title=BRIEFING: INTERNATIONAL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/PPFF-Briefing-International-Final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatestrategiesndbriefing, author = {{Climate Strategies}}, title = {{BRIEFING: INTERNATIONAL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/PPFF-Briefing-International-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }