BRIEFING: BRAZIL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS

The document analyzes Brazil's unique energy landscape, where a predominantly renewable electricity mix coexists with a significant reliance on petroleum for transport and a growing oil production sector. It highlights the tension between the government's climate commitments and its plans to expand oil production, particularly in the Equatorial Margin. The briefing suggests that Brazil can leverage its G20 and COP30 leadership to promote the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies and use oil revenues to fund green innovation and forest conservation, while recommending the introduction of an upstream carbon tax to manage environmental externalities.

• Brazil's energy mix is characterized by a high proportion of renewables in electricity—with hydropower providing 63% and wind and solar growing to 16.5% by 2022—but fossil fuels still account for 51% of total energy use, primarily due to oil-based fuels in road transport.
• Oil and gas production has increased significantly, reaching 4.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2023, with the 'pre-salt' reserves accounting for 78% of production. While the sector is a major export and industrial contributor, it employs less than 1% of Brazil's total workforce.
• There is a policy contradiction in the current administration: while framing the energy transition as just and sustainable, the government maintains plans for continued oil production through 2050, arguing that the industry provides necessary investment and energy security.
• The expansion of oil reserves into the Equatorial Margin faces significant environmental opposition and regulatory hurdles, as IBAMA has refused licenses for drilling in the Amazon estuary basin due to concerns over oil spill controls in a biodiverse region.
• Brazil has the opportunity to lead globally during its G20 Presidency and COP30 by reducing its own fossil fuel subsidies and implementing a carbon tax on upstream oil and gas production to reduce emissions intensity and improve global competitiveness.
• The briefing recommends using oil revenues to support a green economic transformation, specifically through R&D in clean energy and initiatives like the 'Floresta Viva' project and the proposed 'Tropical Forests Forever Facility' to fund forest conservation.

APA

Climate Strategies (n.d.). BRIEFING: BRAZIL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/PPFF-Briefing-Brazil-Final.pdf

Chicago

Climate Strategies. BRIEFING: BRAZIL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS. n.d. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/PPFF-Briefing-Brazil-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Strategies |title=BRIEFING: BRAZIL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/PPFF-Briefing-Brazil-Final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatestrategiesndbriefing, author = {{Climate Strategies}}, title = {{BRIEFING: BRAZIL PROSPERITY POST FOSSIL FUELS}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/PPFF-Briefing-Brazil-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }