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The paper examines the shifting landscape of Africa's extractive sector, noting the rise of emerging economies like China and Brazil and the increasing pressure on companies to demonstrate social and developmental obligations. It suggests that European firms can gain a competitive edge by embracing local processing, reskilling workers affected by mechanization, and improving transparency. Furthermore, it discusses how a projected decline in EU material demand by 2030 could shift global supply chains and allow for more technical, less geo-economic cooperation between the EU and Africa.

The report identifies Zambia's high vulnerability to climate change, specifically in agriculture and water security, and assesses the role of higher education institutions in addressing these challenges. It highlights significant gaps in climate modelling, carbon marketing, and the integration of CCD into national curricula, while identifying strengths in solar energy research and disaster management training.

The paper argues that South Africa's regional policy exhibits an inconsistent and weak linkage between its stated normative values and its economic diplomacy. While South Africa positions itself as a normative leader in Africa, its historical ties to liberation movements and a focus on regional state-building have limited its use of economic resources as tools for political reform. The author concludes that South Africa has not integrated its economic drivers with its normative drivers, often failing to sacrifice economic interests to defend the political anchors of its external identity.

The interior of Southern Africa faces severe climate impacts, including temperature increases of up to 6°C by 2100, which threaten dryland forests. These ecosystems, comprising Miombo and Kalahari Woodland biomes, are already degraded by land-use changes and over-use. The author argues that current SADC forestry policies are too sector-based and lack specific adaptation guidance for dryland forests. To build resilience, the document recommends a shift toward Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), full-cost accounting of natural capital, and the creation of landscape connectivity to allow species migration. It emphasizes the role of community-based management and the use of non-timber forest products as socio-economic safety nets for the millions of people dependent on these forests.

The paper examines how adaptive capacity—comprising assets, institutions, knowledge, innovation systems, and governance—interacts with social protection measures to enhance income and capabilities in agroforestry systems. In Zambia, the adaptive capacity of farmers strengthened their social protection to reduce drought impacts, while in Honduras, formal social protection measures improved adaptive capacity. The author argues that understanding these linkages is essential for planning adaptation initiatives and identifying specific areas of adaptive capacity for investment to ensure social protection measures are effective.

The 'Community-Led Disaster Risk Reduction' project in Mongu, Zambia, sought to enhance resilience to floods and droughts by strengthening community management capacity and promoting livelihood diversification. The review recommends that Oxfam and partners conduct further research on the impact of project-related advocacy, improve the inclusivity of community members in drought preparedness, and ensure the full dissemination of training and early-warning information.

The document argues that market forces alone are insufficient to drive the uptake of low carbon energy in low-income countries and recommends that governments build 'innovation systems' through stakeholder networks, public market research, shared visions, and funded experimentation. These lessons are derived from the growth of Kenya's off-grid solar market, where an estimated 300,000 homes have PV systems and over 100,000 solar portable lights are in use.

The briefing argues that while the Green Climate Fund's initial readiness program may be narrowly focused on facilitating access to the Fund, it must eventually address broader enabling conditions—such as policy development and capacity building—to achieve transformational climate-resilient development. It further suggests that the GCF should remain flexible regarding the institutions used to channel readiness funds before the formal accreditation process is complete.

The report identifies China as highly vulnerable to copper supply disruptions due to its heavy reliance on imports, particularly from Chile, Australia, and Peru. It highlights significant sustainability risks associated with copper mining, including high greenhouse gas emissions, energy intensity, and social conflicts. To mitigate these risks, the document recommends that the Chinese government strengthen the capacity of its embassies, engage with international sustainability standards, explore fiscal incentives, and integrate green procurement criteria into public policy.

The report uses the IISD Supply Risk Tool to analyze China's copper supply chain, finding high vulnerability due to heavy reliance on a few major producers like Chile, Peru, and Australia. It identifies resource nationalism and environmental/social governance (ESG) issues—specifically greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, and labor rights—as critical risks that could disrupt supply. The document recommends that the Chinese government enhance the capacity of its embassies, align with international standards, and integrate supply chain sustainability into green procurement and national planning.

The report argues that sustainability issues—such as pollution, biodiversity loss, and social conflict—in supplier countries create strategic risks for China's security of supply. It introduces a methodology to identify 'hot spots' by analyzing demand-side vulnerability and supply-side hazards. Through pilot studies on copper and palm oil, the report demonstrates that while China is highly vulnerable to supply disruptions in these sectors, it lacks a coordinated national strategy to manage these risks. The authors recommend that the Chinese government build the capacity of its embassies, engage more deeply with international sustainability standards, explore fiscal incentives for sustainable sourcing, and integrate supply chain sustainability into green public procurement and national planning.

The report introduces the IISD Supply Risk Tool, a methodology designed to identify 'hotspots' where sustainability issues—such as environmental degradation, human rights abuses, and governance failures—intersect with supply security risks for China. Through pilot studies on copper and palm oil, the report demonstrates how these risks manifest at both micro (corporate) and macro (national) levels. For copper, the report highlights high economic importance and vulnerability, with significant risks from resource nationalism and energy-intensive production. For palm oil, it emphasizes high risks related to deforestation, biodiversity loss, and political instability in Indonesia and Malaysia. The document concludes that China lacks a comprehensive national strategy for managing these systemic risks and recommends five policy steps: enhancing the capacity of embassies and consulates, increasing participation in international sustainability standards, researching financial incentives for sustainable procurement, integrating sustainability into green public procurement, and incorporating supply chain risk indicators into corporate social responsibility (CSR) guidelines.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies presents three plausible scenarios for South Africa's economic and political trajectory up to 2030: 'Bafana Bafana' (continued underachievement), 'Mandela Magic' (high growth and vision), and 'Nation Divided' (political instability and populist decline). Using the International Futures forecasting system, the author analyzes how leadership choices, particularly within the African National Congress (ANC) and its alliance with COSATU, will impact GDP, employment, and social stability.

The paper analyzes the funding of African governance institutions, such as anti-corruption commissions and the APRM, and processes like constitutional reform and the EITI. It argues that while government funding is ideal for ensuring national ownership, a mix of donor and state funds is common. The author highlights that funding can be used as a reward for good governance (e.g., US Millennium Challenge Account) or as a tool for donor control (e.g., EU funding of PEFA). The document concludes that mitigating external influence requires a combination of self-assessment processes, adherence to continental or global standards, and the mainstreaming of governance actions into national budgets.

The report examines the impasse in Zambia's ongoing effort to draft a new constitution, highlighting a historical pattern of executive-driven processes that lack public legitimacy. It details the current friction between the Patriotic Front (PF) government and civil society organisations (CSOs) over the validation and adoption of the draft, specifically the role of the Inquiries Act and the demand for a national referendum. The author argues that without a transparent, inclusive roadmap, the process risks being viewed as illegitimate, potentially threatening security and stability ahead of the 2016 general elections.

The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), established in 2003 to improve governance in member states, has failed to attract significant media attention despite its potential. The document identifies four primary barriers: the bulky and technical nature of Country Review Reports (CRRs), a lack of understanding of the APRM's complex processes among journalists, a media focus on sporadic events rather than the implementation of National Programmes of Action (NPoAs), and inadequate communication strategies from APRM structures. Furthermore, the paper notes that the APRM's self-assessment questionnaires historically neglected media freedom, only introducing a related question in 2011. Case studies from Zambia, South Africa, Mozambique, and Uganda illustrate that while media-friendly packaging (such as traffic light rating systems) can generate interest, coverage remains intermittent and superficial. The authors argue that the media's watchdog role is essential for monitoring NPoA implementation and recommend the adoption of continental and national media strategies, specialized journalist beats, and increased training to bridge the gap between the APRM and the public.

The paper examines the tension between 'positive' and 'negative' governance values in Africa. While the African Union has established comprehensive frameworks like the APRM and ACDEG to promote transparency, accountability, and human rights, the author argues that a lack of political will and moral leadership hinders their implementation. The document highlights persistent issues such as systemic corruption, political clientelism, the marginalisation of women, and electoral manipulation, while noting that a small group of countries has made significant progress toward democratic governance.

The document outlines that Africa is experiencing significant warming and increased extreme weather, which threatens food security, health, and economic growth. It argues that while Africa has contributed little to historic emissions, it is highly vulnerable and must integrate adaptation and mitigation into long-term development planning. Key opportunities for the region include adopting decentralized renewable energy, implementing conservation agriculture, and planning low-carbon urban growth to avoid fossil fuel lock-in.

The document outlines the observed and projected climate impacts in Africa, emphasizing that warming is already occurring and will likely accelerate. It argues that while global mitigation is essential to avoid catastrophic outcomes, immediate investment in adaptation is critical to protect food security, health, and economic growth. The report highlights opportunities for Africa to adopt low-carbon development pathways and calls for international cooperation and financial support to build resilience.

The report details a transition in South Africa's energy efficiency landscape, marked by the introduction of new building codes (SANS 10400) and mandatory quality testing for solar water heaters. While the high-pressure solar water heater market is consolidating after a peak in 2011 and the low-pressure sector is described as 'virtually extinct', the embedded generation sector, particularly solar PV, is showing growth as it approaches price parity with Eskom retail pricing. Financial incentives are shifting from Eskom-funded rebates, which have been largely cancelled, toward tax deductions under Section 12L.