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This report details the activities of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) Directorate from 1 July 2023 to 13 October 2023. It focuses on the implementation of decisions from the 31st meeting of the Conference of the Parties (CoP-31), specifically regarding research programs on climate-health and ocean systems, science diplomacy, and the expansion of institutional associations.

The IAI Executive Directorate has advanced several strategic mandates from CoP-31, including the launch of a climate, environment, and health research program, the establishment of an Oceans, Islands, and Coastal Regions Committee, and the expansion of scientific diplomacy initiatives. Key achievements include the distribution of initial grants to 12 research teams across 15 countries, the development of partnerships with the University of the West Indies and the Global Change Research Center in Paraguay, and the implementation of the Science, Technology, and Policy (STeP) Fellowship with 45 fellows. The Directorate is also coordinating regional efforts on the Amazon and tropical forests, as well as enhancing gender and indigenous inclusion through new advisory committees and targeted funding for underrepresented researchers.

The European Union is expanding its Emissions Trading System (ETS2) to cover buildings and road transport, starting in 2027 or 2028. While intended to accelerate decarbonisation by applying the 'polluter pays' principle, the system risks disproportionately impacting low-income households. To mitigate this, the EU has established the Social Climate Fund (SCF) to support vulnerable groups and finance energy retrofitting. Carbon Market Watch advocates for increasing the SCF cap, strengthening energy performance standards, banning internal combustion engines by 2035, and ensuring that carbon pricing is complemented by binding national targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation.

The report details the environmental and social degradation of Obi Island caused by the nickel industrial park operated by Trimegah Bangun Persada (TBP) and its subsidiaries. It specifically criticizes the IFC for providing funding to financial intermediaries—OCBC NISP, DBS Bank Ltd, and KEB Hana—which in turn finance TBP's operations. The author highlights that these operations rely on captive coal-fired power plants, which the report claims contradicts the IFC's Paris Agreement alignment and its own Performance Standards. Documented impacts include heavy metal contamination of marine biota, drinking water pollution exceeding Indonesian safety standards, high rates of Acute Respiratory Infection in children, and the displacement of local communities.

The report concludes that while the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) remains the primary driver for industrial decarbonisation, current carbon prices alone are insufficient to trigger the massive investments required for deep decarbonisation in the steel and cement sectors. It argues that demand-side measures—specifically Green Public Procurement (GPP) and sustainable product regulations—can provide the necessary market signals to build technological capacity and avoid carbon lock-in. The study highlights that government-driven initiatives have significantly more potential than voluntary industry pledges, though the latter can serve as a short-term bridge. Key recommendations include harmonising low-carbon product definitions across EU Member States and exploring Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfDs) to bridge the 'green premium' cost gap.

The report concludes that all analyzed policy frameworks are inadequate for the robust deployment of carbon dioxide removals (CDR). Most frameworks fail to establish a clear firewall between emissions reductions and removals, often treating them as interchangeable through offsetting mechanisms. Key deficiencies include the absence of legally binding, separate CDR targets, the lack of a robust definition of CDR that ensures long-term permanence, and insufficient monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems. The authors recommend that CDR be strictly defined as a secondary climate function to balance residual emissions, supported by dedicated legal targets and rigorous accounting to prevent 'mitigation deterrence'.

The document argues that South Africa is not in an acute fiscal crisis, as current revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns are within historical norms. It criticizes the National Treasury's commitment to austerity and poor planning, particularly regarding the public sector wage bill. The authors suggest that the real issue is a 'growth crisis' rather than a debt crisis, noting that the debt-to-GDP ratio is comparable to other emerging markets. To resolve budget gaps, the brief recommends utilizing the SARB's Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account, increasing borrowing, restoring the corporate income tax rate to 28%, and introducing wealth taxes, while cautioning against VAT increases.

The document argues that South Africa's current budget mismatch is within historical norms and does not constitute an acute fiscal crisis. It identifies a projected revenue shortfall of R67.2 billion and an expenditure overspend of R67.9 billion, attributing the latter largely to poor planning by the National Treasury. While the debt-to-GDP ratio (71.4% in 2022/23) is comparable to emerging market averages, the authors warn that the rising cost of debt and lack of economic growth create a medium-term sustainability risk. To resolve the mismatch without cutting public services, the brief recommends utilizing the R459 billion in the SARB's Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account, restoring the corporate income tax rate to 28%, removing tax breaks for high-income earners, and implementing a progressive wealth tax.

The document asserts that media concentration and poor governance in France result in a lack of quality information on climate change, which the authors link to public health risks and a failure to uphold constitutional rights to environmental information.

The report assesses Europe's geological CO2 storage potential, estimating theoretical capacity between 262 and 1520 GtCO2. It compares 'Domestic' (widespread) and 'Export' (limited basins) storage scenarios against 'Prioritised' and 'Technical Potential' demand scenarios. While Europe has sufficient long-term theoretical capacity, current announced projects are insufficient for 2035 demand. The study highlights that widespread domestic storage significantly reduces transport CAPEX compared to export-heavy models, though some countries like Finland and Estonia lack suitable sedimentary basins.

The 'Climate Lockdown' narrative is a conspiracy theory claiming that global elites use climate change as a pretext to restrict civil liberties. Emerging in early 2020, the term shifted from early discussions about environmental benefits of COVID-19 lockdowns to a tool for climate sceptics and anti-elite movements. By late 2022, the narrative evolved to target urban planning initiatives, specifically '15-minute cities' and traffic filters in Oxford, UK, falsely framing them as precursors to authoritarian movement restrictions.

The report assesses Europe's theoretical CO2 storage capacity, estimating it between 262 and 1520 GtCO2, and matches this against industrial and non-industrial CCS demand scenarios for 2035 and 2050. It compares 'Export' scenarios (limited key basins) with 'Domestic' scenarios (widespread storage), finding that while Europe has sufficient long-term theoretical capacity, current announced projects are insufficient for 2035 demand. The analysis highlights that widespread domestic storage could halve transport CAPEX costs compared to export-heavy models, though certain regions like Northern Italy, the German North Sea, and Switzerland may face capacity constraints under high-demand scenarios.

Analysis of 2022 EU-ETS data shows that the ten largest emitters in the system are all coal power plants, which together account for 13% of total EU-ETS emissions and 25% of power sector emissions. Germany and Poland are the primary contributors, together responsible for two-thirds of coal power emissions. Three utilities—RWE, PGE, and EPH—dominate the sector, collectively accounting for 30% of power sector emissions. While coal emissions rose 6% in 2022 due to the energy crisis, the long-term trend remains a decline, with 2022 levels 40% lower than a decade ago.

The report identifies that the ten largest emitters in the EU-ETS are all coal power plants, which together account for 25% of the power sector's emissions. While 2022 saw a 6% increase in coal emissions due to the energy crisis, the long-term trend remains a decline. Germany and Poland dominate the emissions landscape, and three utilities—RWE, PGE, and EPH—have remained the top emitters for six consecutive years.

The Changing Markets Foundation asserts that Nestlé's net zero roadmap is a "green mirage" that fails to meet any of the UN's Integrity Matters recommendations. The analysis highlights a significant "methane blindspot," noting that Nestlé does not separately report methane emissions, which are estimated to be twice those of Switzerland's entire livestock sector. The author criticizes Nestlé's reliance on regenerative agriculture over proven solutions and its strategy to grow plant-based portfolios alongside dairy rather than using them as substitutes to reduce overall emissions. Furthermore, the document claims that Nestlé's actual emissions have reduced by only 1% over five years, contradicting the company's reported 6.4% reduction achieved through "creative accounting."

The report examines 93 unique plastic pollution reduction measures notified by nearly 70 WTO members. It finds that prohibitions on single-use plastics and import restrictions on plastic waste are the most common tools. The analysis highlights a lack of product diversity in current bans and suggests that WTO members could benefit from enhanced transparency, geographic expansion of successful measures, and the exploration of new thematic areas beyond common single-use items.

The paper examines the rise of trade measures based on non-product-related process and production methods (PPMs) used to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and human rights. It analyzes the legal requirements for such measures to be WTO-compliant, highlighting the importance of non-discrimination and proportionality. The authors provide examples of current PPM-based policies, including forced labour import bans, deforestation-free supply chain regulations, and sustainability-linked tariff preferences in regional trade agreements, while noting ongoing WTO disputes between the EU, Indonesia, and Malaysia over biofuels.

In 2022, solar and wind power continued their rapid growth, with solar being the fastest-growing source and wind recording the largest absolute increase. Conversely, nuclear power saw a significant decline, primarily driven by outages in France and Germany. Coal generation reached an all-time record high of 10,186 TWh, although its overall share of the global electricity mix slightly decreased. Hydro power rebounded after a poor 2021 but remains below 2020 levels due to droughts in Europe. Fossil gas generation remained relatively stable despite supply chain disruptions. To align with the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario by 2030, the report argues that solar and wind must sustain high annual growth rates, coal and unabated gas must be phased out, and nuclear power must grow more rapidly than its recent historical average.

The briefing finds that Nestlé's net-zero plan fails to meet any of the nine relevant recommendations from the UN Integrity Matters report, primarily due to a lack of specific methane targets and an over-reliance on regenerative agriculture. While Nestlé targets a 42% reduction in dairy and livestock emissions against a business-as-usual scenario, this represents only a 14% reduction from its 2018 baseline. The analysis estimates that Nestlé's methane emissions from cattle are roughly 8.7 million tonnes of CO2e, and notes that between 2018 and 2022, targeted GHG emissions dropped by only 1%.

The report finds that Nestlé's net-zero plan fails to meet any of the nine relevant UN Integrity Matters recommendations. It highlights a critical 'methane blindspot,' where the company avoids setting specific methane targets despite dairy and livestock being its largest emission sources. The analysis argues that Nestlé uses 'creative accounting' via business-as-usual scenarios to mask minimal absolute emission reductions and relies on unverified regenerative agriculture and insetting to meet goals. Furthermore, the report identifies greenwashing in the carbon-neutral claims of flagship brands like Nespresso and KitKat, which rely heavily on unreliable offsets.