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The document establishes a conceptual framework for analyzing the future of state governance in the Global South. It defines state governance as the structures and processes used to exercise authority and manage resources, emphasizing a shift away from Global North-centric democratic models toward 'accountable governance'. The research employs a foresight-driven approach to investigate how technology, economic transitions, and geopolitical shifts influence governance trajectories across seven defined regions of the Global South.

The document concludes that Africa's current economic path is characterised by low productivity and 'premature deindustrialisation', where labour shifts from subsistence agriculture to low-end informal urban services rather than manufacturing. It highlights a reliance on 'capital-intensive commodity enclaves' that fail to build local value chains or improve broad welfare. To reverse this, the author argues for strategic investments in renewable energy, education, health infrastructure, and digital literacy, alongside the use of the AfCFTA to foster intra-African trade. The text emphasizes that achieving the African Union's Agenda 2063 requires strong governance, gender equity, and international partnerships for financing and technology transfer.

The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.

The Kuala Lumpur Declaration demands that developed countries fulfill their climate debt through grant-based finance, including an estimated USD 5.1–6.8 trillion by 2030. It advocates for a global Fossil Fuel Treaty, the rejection of 'false solutions' like carbon removal and nuclear power, and the dismantling of restrictive intellectual property regimes to accelerate technology transfer. The declaration further calls for tripling adaptation finance by 2035 and scaling the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage to hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

The document reports that carbon pricing now covers over 23% of global greenhouse gas emissions through 43 carbon taxes and 38 emissions trading systems. It highlights the vulnerability of specific industrial sectors in Southeast Asia to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which entered its definitive phase in January 2026, noting that over 20% of Viet Nam’s iron and steel exports and nearly 20% of Indonesia’s aluminum exports are destined for the EU. The briefing also details the expansion of Article 6.2 bilateral agreements, with over 100 announced or formalized, led by purchasing countries such as Japan and Singapore. Regionally, Indonesia is identified as the only Southeast Asian nation with an operational ETS, having aligned its framework with Article 6 via Regulation 110/2025, although its carbon tax under Law 7/2021 remains postponed. Other updates include the Philippines moving toward formal carbon pricing legislation and Viet Nam postponing carbon market trading until the end of 2026.

Vietnam's solar power generation helps the country avoid approximately USD 594 million in fossil fuel import costs during the current energy price surge driven by the Iran war. While Vietnam leads Southeast Asia in solar and wind shares, it continues to prioritize coal and gas in its long-term power planning, increasing its vulnerability to global price shocks.

The report assesses five Canadian industrial carbon pricing systems, noting that while the combination of a federal benchmark and provincial tailoring has been largely effective, design differences can fragment markets. It emphasizes the need for predictable carbon pricing and continuous monitoring to prevent issues like credit oversupply.

The document examines the trend of ASEAN countries increasing LNG import infrastructure, with planned investments of USD 20.4 billion. It argues that LNG fails to provide true energy security due to its sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, and competition for supply with Europe. The author suggests that Southeast Asian nations should instead prioritize domestic renewable energy, leverage their own solar manufacturing capacity, and accelerate the ASEAN Power Grid to enhance resilience and reduce import dependency.

The report defines clean firm generation as dispatchable, low-emission electricity sources that do not rely on weather, including nuclear fission, fusion, geothermal, and carbon-capture-enabled fossil or bioenergy. It argues that integrating these technologies can significantly lower the total amount of wind, solar, and storage capacity needed, thereby reducing land use, critical mineral requirements, and overall system costs. The authors identify a 'missing middle' or 'valley of death' in financing for these capital-intensive projects and propose a multi-layered policy approach—combining RD&D, direct procurement, and technology-neutral targets—to achieve systemic bankability.

The report examines how the insurance and reinsurance sectors are responding to intensifying climate disruptions in global supply chains. It identifies critical structural, market, and modelling limits that undermine the industry's ability to absorb systemic risk, noting a trend toward 'un-insurability' in high-risk regions. The author argues that without a shift from simple risk transfer to a stewardship model integrated with long-term adaptation and public-private coordination, the sector may amplify rather than stabilize economic volatility.

The Global Resilience Partnership (GRP) utilizes a tiered 'Innovation Challenge' model to fund and scale bottom-up resilience solutions across the Global South. Since 2014, GRP has invested over US$45 million, supporting 102 solutions in more than 30 countries and benefiting over 7 million people. The 2026 portfolio focuses on three primary challenges: RAIN (nature-positive agriculture), RISE (informal urban settlements), and TECH (AI for humanitarian response). GRP provides a structured pipeline—Idea, Seed, Scale, and Amplify—combining financial grants with non-financial support such as mentoring and a Leadership Academy to make local innovators investment-ready.

The document examines the 'Commodity Trap' facing the Black Soldier Fly (BSF) industry, where attempts to displace low-cost bulk protein and synthetic fertilisers have struggled due to prohibitive price gaps and scaling hurdles. It recommends that producers shift toward high-value functional additives and bioactive soil amendments, leveraging partnerships with established suppliers to overcome farmer skepticism and regulatory barriers in South Africa.

The report identifies significant gaps in the criminal justice response to tiger trafficking in Southeast Asia, noting that while arrests are frequent in some countries, they rarely lead to convictions. Indonesia is highlighted as a model for transparency due to its publicly accessible sentencing records, which reveal that successful prosecutions rely on interagency coordination and forensic evidence. However, the report finds that most prosecuted individuals are low-to-mid-level actors, while high-level organisers remain elusive. The authors recommend increasing judicial transparency, diversifying legal strategies to include anti-money laundering and organised crime statutes, and implementing restorative justice mechanisms to repair ecological harm.

The report outlines a methodology for financial institutions to assess the transition risks and opportunities of power companies in Southeast Asia using three analytical pillars: transition footprint mapping, investment alignment, and dependency mapping. It leverages asset-level data from Global Energy Monitor to help institutions evaluate asset bases, project pipelines, and systemic barriers to decarbonization.

The report analyzes the transition of the steel industry toward net-zero emissions, highlighting the role of emerging technologies and startups. It identifies the dominance of coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) facilities, which contribute approximately 8 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and examines alternatives such as Hydrogen-Direct Reduced Iron (H2-DRI) and scrap-based electric arc furnaces (EAFs). The document categorizes innovations into three pathways: reducing demand ('Make Less'), improving existing processes ('Make Better'), and developing disruptive technologies ('Make New'). It emphasizes the need for strategic investor-offtakers in high-growth markets like Asia and Africa, the potential of modular furnace technologies, and the strategy of generating early revenue through high-margin, low-volume products to derisk commercial scaling.

Following devastating floods from Cyclone Senyar in Indonesia, Mighty Earth's CEO argues that deforestation has exacerbated the disaster's lethality. The document highlights the Batang Toru ecosystem as a warning sign and calls for an emergency pause on the Food and Energy Estates project to protect the country's climate resilience and enable a 25-million-acre nature restoration initiative.

The report examines the diverse strategies employed by three major ASEAN economies—Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Indonesia—to unlock clean energy investments. Viet Nam is focusing on gradual liberalisation and corporate power purchase agreements (DPPA) to potentially double its renewable energy share. The Philippines is leveraging a long-standing liberalised market, utilizing Green Energy Auctions (GEA) and 100% foreign ownership to attract capital. Indonesia is implementing PPA reforms to manage currency risk and integrating carbon market mechanisms to incentivise developers, with solar identified as the most viable near-term expansion option.

The document outlines a forward-looking framework for financial institutions to evaluate corporate investment alignment. It moves beyond high-level disclosures by analyzing asset-level data to project future emissions and production trajectories. The process involves selecting metrics, gathering asset data, calculating company-level trajectories, choosing benchmarks (such as IEA scenarios or company targets), and interpreting the 'alignment delta' to identify transition risks and engagement opportunities.

The document outlines a granular, asset-level process for financial institutions (FIs) to map a company's transition footprint. This process involves five key steps: assessing double materiality to prioritize business lines, gathering detailed asset-level data, identifying retrofit and retirement timelines, selecting appropriate transition benchmarks (such as NDCs or peer data), and evaluating the resulting transition exposure. The guide emphasizes that moving beyond high-level emissions disclosures to asset-specific analysis allows FIs to identify carbon lock-in, policy misalignment, and opportunities for early retirement of high-emissions assets.

RMI highlights the transition from climate commitments to action across several global regions. China is leading in renewable deployment and clean tech exports, while Brazil focuses on low-carbon shipping and ambitious NDCs as the COP30 host. India is pursuing energy independence by 2047 through clean mobility and cooling innovations. Southeast Asia is scaling clean infrastructure and battery storage, and the United States continues to see subnational progress in grid optimization and clean industrialization despite federal delegation concerns.