Search Climate Insights Directory

The document examines the oil industry in South Sudan following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the country's 2011 independence. It argues that oil revenues have been mismanaged by political elites, leading to endemic corruption and a failure to provide basic services to a population where 90% earn less than a dollar a day. The paper details the economic crisis caused by the January 2012 oil production shutdown, the subsequent austerity measures, and the diplomatic pressure from the US and China that led to the resumption of oil flow in 2013.

One year after the death of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's foreign policy remains focused on domestic stability and regional security, particularly in the Horn of Africa. While the country has seen significant economic growth and maintains a strategic alliance with the US to combat terrorism, its diplomatic effectiveness is hindered by a gap between its stated commitment to democracy and its domestic political reality. The author argues that embracing genuine democratic reforms would improve Ethiopia's international prestige and its ability to act as a regional broker for peace and stability.

The document examines Kenya's strategic use of economic diplomacy to position itself as a regional hub for trade and finance in East Africa. It analyzes the interplay between Kenya's foreign policy, its membership in regional economic communities like the East African Community (EAC) and Comesa, and the domestic political risks—including the 2013 elections and ICC cases—that threaten its economic stability. The paper highlights Kenya's dominance in intra-EAC exports and its efforts to diversify its economy through infrastructure projects like the Lapsset corridor, while noting challenges such as corruption and non-tariff barriers.

The report identifies a 'syndrome of fragility' in Africa driven by the interaction of poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified 'more fragile' states could transition toward resilience by 2050, ten countries—including the DRC, Somalia, and South Sudan—are at risk of remaining in a fragility trap. The analysis warns that climate change and democratic deficits could exacerbate these risks, and recommends long-term national development plans, extractive sector reform, and direct cash transfers to the poor to pivot toward a more optimistic future.

The paper assesses the continuity of French Africa policy under President François Hollande and identifies opportunities for South Africa to partner with France. It suggests that while the two nations may differ on specific conflicts, their shared interests in democratic governance and security, combined with France's permanent seat on the UN Security Council and South Africa's influence in the African Union, create a strategic basis for collaboration.

The report highlights the systemic neglect of 200,000 to 400,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in northern Kenya, who face severe vulnerability due to a combination of colonial legacies, violent conflict, human rights abuses, and climatic factors. It argues that while IDPs in other regions of Kenya received significant support following the 2007/08 post-election violence, pastoralist IDPs are largely unaccounted for and receive only inadequate, short-term humanitarian aid. The document calls for the adoption of a national IDP policy, ratification of the Kampala Convention, and a shift toward long-term security and development solutions.

Malawi and Tanzania are unable to agree on a mediation process for their dispute over Lake Malawi, with Tanzania proposing a former SADC head of state and Malawi preferring the International Court of Justice. The dispute is driven by potential oil and gas deposits in the lake. The situation highlights SADC's lack of a standing regional mediation architecture and the 2010 suspension of its regional tribunal, suggesting a need for formal mechanisms to handle trans-boundary resource conflicts.

The document analyzes how disputes over oil transit fees and resource control led to a cessation of oil production in South Sudan in January 2012 and armed clashes in the Heglig border area in April 2012. It details the pressures faced by international oil companies caught between the two governments and the diplomatic efforts by the UN Security Council and the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) to broker a deal. The brief concludes with the September 2012 agreements on transit fees and compensation, while cautioning that implementation remains uncertain.

This report examines the drivers and flows of tropical timber exports from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) through Uganda to regional markets, highlighting the prevalence of unregulated trade and the disparity in benefits among actors within the supply chain.

The document examines the flow of tropical timber from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) into Uganda and the wider East African region. It highlights the challenges of regulating this trade due to its informal nature and the influence of powerful middlemen. The authors argue that regional cooperation, improved infrastructure, and the promotion of plantation forestry in Uganda are essential to reduce illegal trade and pressure on natural forests. Key recommendations include utilizing the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) for coordination and aligning timber certification standards across the DRC and East African Community (EAC) members.

The report examines the trade of tropical timber from the eastern DRC through Uganda to regional and international markets. It finds that approximately 80% of timber leaving the eastern DRC enters Uganda, where it is either consumed locally or transited to Kenya and South Sudan. The trade is characterized by high levels of informality, significant revenue loss for the DRC, and a profit structure that heavily favors middlemen and politically connected traders over primary producers and transporters. While international markets are increasingly regulated by frameworks like EU FLEGT and the US Lacey Act, regional trade remains largely unregulated due to timber shortages in East Africa. The report highlights the role of the Northern Transit Corridor in facilitating these flows and suggests that bottom-up regional cooperation, similar to the Albertine Rift Strategic Planning Process, could improve sustainability and governance.

The document analyzes the escalation of violence in North Kivu, DRC, linked to the M23 rebel group and alleged Rwandan support, alongside the economic collapse and civil unrest in Sudan following the loss of oil revenues to South Sudan.

The report details a conference on Sino-African Union cooperation in peace and security, exploring the intersection of China's economic engagement and Africa's security architecture. Key discussions focus on the 'African solutions to African problems' principle, the role of Regional Economic Communities (RECs) like ECOWAS and IGAD, and specific conflict zones such as the two Sudans and Somalia. While acknowledging China's role in infrastructure and condition-free aid, the report highlights concerns regarding environmental degradation, the influx of cheap goods, and the impact of arms supplies. It recommends a shift from ad-hoc crisis reaction to a proactive role for China, emphasizing capacity building for the AU's African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS).

The report argues that secrecy in large-scale land deals drives bad governance and human rights abuses. It proposes a precautionary principle of "if in doubt, disclose" and identifies four critical entry points for transparency: participatory land use planning, free prior and informed consent (FPIC), public disclosure of all contracts, and independent multi-stakeholder oversight.

The document analyzes China's multifaceted engagement in Sudan from 2005 to 2011, highlighting a transition from a predominantly bilateral relationship with Khartoum to a more complex triangular relationship involving the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS). While China's role was heavily driven by oil interests and a preference for bilateralism, it increasingly adopted a 'peace through development' approach, providing infrastructure projects and humanitarian aid in Darfur and Southern Sudan. The paper notes a strategic recalibration as Beijing moved from supporting Sudanese unity to recognizing South Sudan's independence to protect its investments and maintain regional stability.

The report details a seminar on the governance of Africa's natural resources, focusing on oil, mining, and renewable resources. It highlights the critical role of transparency, accountability, and the need for home-grown African solutions to avoid the 'resource curse'. Key discussions include the benefits and challenges of state-owned oil companies, the impact of resource extraction on local communities, and the complexities of trans-boundary resource management. The document emphasizes that while initiatives like the EITI are positive, broader societal changes and stronger parliamentary oversight are necessary to ensure resources lead to poverty eradication and sustainable development.

The statement examines the instability of the Arab Spring, the complexities of the 'responsibility to protect' doctrine, and the geopolitical shift toward state capitalism. It specifically addresses South Africa's diplomatic efforts in Sudan and South Sudan, its aspirations within the African Union, and the role of the South African Development Partnership Agency. The author also highlights SAIIA's ranking as the top think-tank in Sub-Saharan Africa and its youth development initiatives.

The document examines the African Union's inability to act decisively during crises, such as in Libya and Côte d’Ivoire, attributing this to limited decision-making powers and divergent interests among its 54 member states. It analyzes South Africa's bid for the AU Commission chair as a signal of its intent to be more assertive in African geopolitics, while noting that its size and dominance can trigger fears of hegemony among other member states. The author suggests that South Africa should 'lead from behind' by building alliances with other states to professionalize the AU rather than seeking formal leadership positions.

The author identifies three failures of 'first wave' environmentalism: a failure to establish the relative urgency of environmental crises compared to immediate economic crises, the lack of a convincing narrative on growth in Agenda 21, and the tendency for environmental agendas to be managed by environmental ministers rather than economic development ministers. While the author praises the UN Secretary General's High Level Panel report for addressing these issues through recommendations on fiscal policy and a sustainable economy, he warns that the 'zero draft' of the Rio+20 outcome document remains largely aspirational and risks falling back into the 'environmental trap'.

The author argues that first-wave environmentalism failed because it lacked a convincing narrative on economic growth, failed to establish relative urgency against immediate poverty and debt crises, and remained isolated within environmental ministries. He evaluates the High Level Panel on Global Sustainability's report as a successful attempt to address these gaps through recommendations on green jobs, carbon pricing, and private sector engagement. However, he warns that the 'zero draft' for the Rio+20 outcome document remains largely aspirational and risks falling back into the 'environmental trap'.