South Africa’s Audacity of Hope: The Geopolitics of Consensus and Rivalry in the African Union

The document examines the African Union's inability to act decisively during crises, such as in Libya and Côte d’Ivoire, attributing this to limited decision-making powers and divergent interests among its 54 member states. It analyzes South Africa's bid for the AU Commission chair as a signal of its intent to be more assertive in African geopolitics, while noting that its size and dominance can trigger fears of hegemony among other member states. The author suggests that South Africa should 'lead from behind' by building alliances with other states to professionalize the AU rather than seeking formal leadership positions.

• The African Union is characterized by institutional weakness, lacking the decision-making powers and capacity of the European Union, which often leads to it being sidelined during crises.
• The AU's effectiveness is hindered by the difficulty of achieving a 'common voice' among 54 member states and the political instability of key 'driver states' such as Nigeria, Senegal, Kenya, Egypt, and Libya.
• South Africa's attempt to secure the AU Commission chairmanship was a strategic move to challenge the status quo and signal a more assertive regional leadership role, despite the inconclusive outcome of the election.
• South Africa's pursuit of continental leadership is complicated by its size and dominance, which can lead other African states to fear the influence of a 'big brother' regardless of a candidate's merits.
• To effectively influence the AU, South Africa is advised to 'lead from behind' by building alliances with small and medium-ranked states and other continental powers to drive institutional professionalization.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2012). South Africa’s Audacity of Hope: The Geopolitics of Consensus and Rivalry in the African Union. https://saiia.org.za/research/south-africas-audacity-of-hope-the-geopolitics-of-consensus-and-rivalry-in-the-african-union/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. South Africa’s Audacity of Hope: The Geopolitics of Consensus and Rivalry in the African Union. 2012. https://saiia.org.za/research/south-africas-audacity-of-hope-the-geopolitics-of-consensus-and-rivalry-in-the-african-union/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=South Africa’s Audacity of Hope: The Geopolitics of Consensus and Rivalry in the African Union |date=28 February 2012 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/south-africas-audacity-of-hope-the-geopolitics-of-consensus-and-rivalry-in-the-african-union/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2012south, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{South Africa’s Audacity of Hope: The Geopolitics of Consensus and Rivalry in the African Union}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2012}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/south-africas-audacity-of-hope-the-geopolitics-of-consensus-and-rivalry-in-the-african-union/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }