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COP26: Five reasons why carbon markets (Article 6) matter
The document outlines five primary concerns regarding Article 6 of the Paris Agreement: the lack of buyer demand compared to sellers, the prevalence of unregulated private sector greenwashing, the oversupply of low-quality credits, the struggle to find high-integrity removal credits, and the risk of legacy credits from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) undermining new climate targets.
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Document type: Guide
Superhot Rock Geothermal
Superhot rock (SHR) geothermal energy, defined as heat energy mined at temperatures of 400°C or hotter, is presented as a high-energy-density resource capable of providing competitive, dispatchable, zero-carbon power worldwide. While current geothermal capacity is limited to 15 GW in volcanic or thin-crust regions, SHR could potentially be accessed anywhere through super-deep drilling. The report estimates that mature SHR electricity could be competitive at $20-35 per MWh, producing five to ten times the energy per well compared to conventional systems. Realizing this potential requires overcoming engineering challenges in drilling (reaching 7-15 km), reservoir creation, and well metallurgy. The proposed path forward involves moving three to five pilot demonstrations forward in the next five years, transitioning from shallow hot dry rock to deep continental resources, and leveraging the expertise of the unconventional oil and gas industry to accelerate commercialization within 10 to 15 years.
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Document type: Report
NORTH AMERICAN COAL PRODUCERS PLAN $4.8 BILLION USD ON 15 NEW MINES FOR STEEL EXPORT MARKETS
Coal producers in the US and Canada plan to invest $4.8 billion USD in 15 new metallurgical coal mines to produce 38 million tonnes annually for export, primarily to Asia Pacific markets. However, Global Energy Monitor argues these projects face high risks of economic and regulatory stranding. The global steel industry is under pressure to shift from coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) processes to lower-emissions alternatives like electric arc furnaces (EAF) and direct reduced iron (DRI) to meet net-zero targets. Major importers such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India have committed to carbon reduction, while domestic steel production in the US and Canada is already declining or transitioning away from coal. Furthermore, existing reserves in North America are sufficient to sustain current production levels until at least 2032, making new capacity largely unnecessary.
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Document type: Briefing
กับดักที่พึงระวังจากโครงการก๊าซในเอเชีย
The document assesses the proliferation of gas power plants, pipelines, and LNG terminals across East, South, and Southeast Asia. It contends that these investments, totaling $380 billion, risk becoming stranded assets as renewable energy costs plummet and climate targets necessitate a rapid shift away from fossil fuels. The report highlights the significant carbon budget impact of these projects and the continued role of public finance in supporting gas expansion despite net-zero pledges.
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Document type: Report
Asia’s Gas Lock-In
The report analyzes the planned expansion of gas infrastructure in Asia, including power plants, pipelines, and LNG terminals, totaling $379 billion. It argues that this expansion risks locking in high greenhouse gas emissions, potentially consuming a quarter of the global carbon budget for a 1.5°C limit. The document highlights that falling costs of renewable energy and high price volatility of LNG make these gas investments economically risky and likely to become stranded assets. It further criticizes the continued support of public financial institutions for gas projects and advocates for a transition to clean energy portfolios.
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Document type: Report
2021 Asia’s Gas Lock-In
The report analyzes plans for US$379 billion in new gas infrastructure across Asia, including 320 GW of power plants and 452 mtpa of LNG import capacity. It argues that this expansion would consume a quarter of the global carbon budget for a 1.5°C limit and warns that these assets may become economically unviable due to the falling cost of renewables and LNG price volatility. The author calls for a redirection of public finance away from gas to align with net-zero goals.
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Document type: Report
এশিয়ার গ্যাস লক-ইন
The report argues that the planned $379 billion expansion of gas infrastructure in Asia threatens the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C and risks creating stranded assets. It highlights that the region is planning 320 GW of new gas-fired power and 452 mtpa of LNG import capacity, which could emit up to 117 Gt CO2-eq over their lifespans. The document contends that renewable energy is now a more cost-effective and reliable alternative, and calls for the redirection of public finance away from gas to support net-zero goals.
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Document type: Report
Penguncian Gas di Asia
The report identifies a massive planned expansion of gas infrastructure in Asia, including 320 GW of power plants and 452 mtpa of LNG import capacity, valued at 379 billion USD. It argues these investments risk becoming stranded assets as renewable energy costs plummet and climate targets necessitate a rapid decline in fossil fuel use. The document highlights that the projected emissions from this infrastructure could consume 25% of the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5°C. It further criticizes the continued role of public financial institutions in funding these projects, suggesting a shift toward clean energy portfolios as a more secure and sustainable alternative.
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Document type: Report
아시아 지역의 가스 개발 확대에 따른 락인 효과
The report analyzes the expansion of gas power plants, pipelines, and LNG terminals across East, South, and Southeast Asia, totaling $379 billion in planned investments. It argues that this expansion is incompatible with the 1.5°C climate goal, as the resulting emissions could consume 25% of the global carbon budget. The document highlights the economic risk of these projects becoming stranded assets due to the falling cost of renewable energy and the volatility of LNG prices. It concludes that clean energy portfolios, combining renewables with storage and demand management, are more cost-effective and secure alternatives to gas.
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Document type: Report
Lock-in ng Gas sa Asya
The report identifies a massive planned expansion of gas infrastructure in Asia, totaling US$379 billion, which includes 320 GW of power plants, 63,000 km of pipelines, and 452 mtpa of LNG import capacity. It argues that this expansion would consume approximately one-quarter of the global carbon budget required to limit warming to 1.5°C and warns that these projects are economically risky compared to cheaper renewable alternatives. The document highlights the role of public financing from institutions like the Export-Import Bank of China and the Asian Development Bank in sustaining this growth, while urging a shift toward clean energy portfolios.
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Document type: Report
BLUE ACCELERATION: AN OCEAN OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
The report describes the 'Blue Acceleration,' a phenomenal increase in the diversity and scale of ocean-based industries since 2000. It argues that while the ocean is viewed as an economic frontier, the benefits flow disproportionately to a small number of powerful states and corporations, leaving SIDS and LDCs exposed to risks. The document details the environmental and social impacts of sectors like offshore wind, deep-sea mining, and industrial fishing, while highlighting the emergence of interconnected 'Anthropocene risks' including climate-driven regime shifts and stranded assets. It concludes by exploring the role of sustainable finance in redirecting the ocean economy toward equity and stewardship.
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Document type: Report
Piloting Resilience in Trade Promotion
The document analyzes the impact of Covid-19 on green SMME exporters in the Western Cape and evaluates how Wesgro adapted its trade promotion services. Key findings highlight that while travel restrictions severely hindered traditional matchmaking, the shift to virtual training, hybrid trade missions, and digital marketing increased accessibility for smaller firms. The report argues that these digital tools can reduce the environmental impact of business travel and help exporters adapt to emerging green economy demands and climate-related trade barriers, particularly in the EU market.
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Document type: Case study
Independent evaluation of the adaptation portfolio and approach of the Green Climate Fund
The evaluation finds that while the GCF is uniquely positioned to finance large-scale, high-risk adaptation projects, it has not yet fully utilized this potential. The adaptation portfolio is dominated by small-scale grant projects implemented by international accredited entities, with significant delays in project approval and legal arrangements. Private sector engagement remains extremely low, and the Fund lacks a specific strategy for adaptation impact measurement and innovation. Key recommendations include diversifying financial instruments, streamlining the business model for direct access entities, and establishing a clear private sector strategy for adaptation.
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Document type: Report
Carbon Pricing for Climate Action: New Countdown to COP Policy Briefing
The document analyzes the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as a shift in climate policy toward trade and economic levers. It highlights the growth of carbon pricing globally, including the EU ETS and China's national ETS, and suggests that COP26 should be used to establish a 'green window' for preferential treatment of green goods and a mechanism to allocate CBAM revenues to vulnerable countries to ensure a just transition.
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Document type: Briefing
Key U.S. Initiatives for Addressing Biological Threats
The briefing analyzes Operation Warp Speed (OWS) to provide recommendations for strengthening the U.S. industrial base for medical countermeasures. It advocates for an 'ecosystem approach' that integrates platform technologies like mRNA, supports small innovative biotech companies, and maintains Advanced Development and Manufacturing (ADM) facilities. The authors propose establishing annual exercise programs to reduce development timelines and improving public-private partnerships to ensure the U.S. can design and approve vaccines within 100 days of detecting a pandemic threat.
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Document type: Briefing
Green Bond Pricing in the Primary Market: January - June 2021
The report analyzes 75 green bonds totaling USD 75.9bn issued in H1 2021, finding that green bonds generally achieved higher book cover and greater spread compression than vanilla equivalents. It highlights a significant increase in allocations to green investors, reaching 66%, and provides evidence of a 'greenium' for 26 out of 33 non-sovereign bonds. Additionally, the report examines sovereign green bond issuance and concludes that green labels can enhance secondary market liquidity, particularly in the EUR utility sector.
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Document type: Report
РОССИЙСКИЙ УГОЛЬНЫЙ СЕКТОР В НИЗКОУГЛЕРОДНОМ МИРЕ: Перспективы отказа от угля
The Russian coal sector provides a low economic contribution to the national GDP but maintains high social and political significance, particularly in regions like Kuzbass. Despite this, the sector is heavily reliant on indirect state subsidies and faces a deteriorating infrastructure, with the average age of coal power plants reaching 53 years. The report highlights a disconnect between the Russian government's expectations of export growth and the reality of decarbonization trends in key markets such as the EU, China, and India. It argues that Russia lacks an official decarbonization scenario and that conservative views currently dominate policy, ignoring the risks of stranded assets and the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The authors propose a 'just transition' framework consisting of social programs for workers, regional economic diversification, and the introduction of an internal carbon price.
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Document type: Report
The Russian coal sector in a low-carbon world: Prospects for a Coal Transition?
The Russian coal sector provides a negligible contribution to the national GDP but remains politically significant due to regional employment and historical stability concerns. While the Russian government continues to anticipate growth in coal exports, particularly to Asia, the report argues that this is unrealistic given the global low-carbon transition, the obsolescence of Russia's coal-fired power fleet, and the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy. The document highlights that the sector is heavily reliant on indirect government subsidies, such as reduced rail tariffs. It proposes a three-part just transition framework consisting of social re-employment programmes, regional economic diversification (especially in the Kuzbass region), and the implementation of a domestic carbon price to internalize environmental costs.
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Document type: Report
COAL POWER FINANCE IN HIGH-IMPACT COUNTRIES
The document analyzes coal finance in 18 high-impact countries (HICs) with significant electricity access gaps. It finds that while global coal investment is declining, finance persists in HICs, largely driven by Chinese state-owned institutions and a few South Asian nations. The report argues that coal is misaligned with Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) due to long development timelines and high infrastructure costs, contrasting this with the efficiency of distributed renewable energy. It highlights the risk of stranded assets in Bangladesh and Pakistan and the operational hurdles facing coal in Africa, concluding that a shift toward renewables and finance-based carbon accounting is necessary to achieve net-zero goals.
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Document type: Briefing
Global update
The September 2021 Global Update by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) finds that global climate action continues to lag behind the requirements for limiting warming to 1.5°C. While some countries have updated their NDCs, the 2030 emissions gap remains significant, estimated at 20 to 23 GtCO2e. The report introduces a new rating system that integrates targets, policies, and climate finance, revealing that only The Gambia is overall 1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible. Most net zero targets are rated as poor or incomplete, and developed countries are failing to provide sufficient international climate finance or implement policies that align with their fair share of global mitigation efforts.
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Document type: Briefing