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Piracy has re-emerged off Somalia's coast in 2026, with the Joint Maritime Information Center raising its threat assessment to 'severe' following several hijackings in April and May. The document highlights that while international naval efforts like Operation Atalanta and Combined Task Force 151 have previously suppressed piracy, they are currently stretched thin due to crises in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The author argues that piracy is driven by the collapse of sea-dependent livelihoods caused by illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. While Türkiye has signed agreements to safeguard Somali territorial waters, the document suggests Turkish forces may prioritize their own deep-sea drilling assets. The report concludes that unless the Somali federal government and partners address community grievances and governance gaps, the region remains vulnerable to a sustained piracy cycle.

The assessment finds that while Somalia is modernizing its legal framework through the 2019 National Minerals Resources Policy and new environmental laws, its mining sector remains predominantly informal and artisanal. Key strengths include a clear fiscal regime for extractives and strong political will to align with international standards. However, significant gaps persist, including an outdated 1984 Mining Code, a lack of a comprehensive mining cadaster, unknown levels of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) activity, and the cultural exclusion of women from the sector. The report recommends enacting a new Mining Bill, establishing a robust mining inspectorate, and developing a formalization roadmap for ASM.

The Somalia National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Framework provides a roadmap for reducing national and local vulnerabilities to climate change. It emphasizes the integration of adaptation into the National Development Plan (NDP-9) and peacebuilding initiatives, recognizing that climate shocks exacerbate conflict and poverty. The framework outlines a whole-of-society approach, prioritizing gender-responsiveness, vertical integration between federal and state governments, and the mobilization of climate finance. It identifies the Directorate of Environment and Climate Change (DoECC) as the lead coordinator and proposes the establishment of a National Climate Fund and a dedicated monitoring and evaluation system to track progress.

The report finds that East Africa remains fragile due to violent extremism, insurgency, and resource-based conflicts, despite governance progress in some states. It highlights the prevalence of unregistered firearms, particularly in Somalia, and the role of anocracies in driving political instability. The document maps the overlapping mandates of regional organisations like the EAC and IGAD and recommends stronger inter-REC coordination and standardised regional monitoring to address information gaps.

The document asserts that public communication is essential for democratic societies and that the marginalisation of people living in poverty in public discourse hinders the achievement of social and environmental justice.

The report examines the overlapping claims of Somaliland and Puntland to the Sool and Sanaag regions, highlighting how colonial legacies and clan identities create divergent visions of administration. It details recent military clashes in Tukaraq and the militarisation of Sanaag, while noting that economic and social ties persist despite political tensions. The author argues that a durable solution requires consulting local populations and moving beyond identity-based power-sharing.

The report analyzes the high stakes of the 2017 Somaliland presidential elections, noting that while the country has a strong democratic record, it faces significant institutional decay and increasing corruption. It highlights the role of clan alliances in determining the outcome between the Kulmiye and Waddani parties and discusses the security risks posed by territorial disputes with Puntland and the rise of al-Shabaab in the region.

The report examines Turkey's transition to an 'emerging donor' through its activities in Somalia, highlighting a 'multi-actor and multi-track policy' that combines humanitarian aid, development assistance, and strategic political engagement. While praised for its rapid delivery and respect for national ownership, the Turkish approach is noted for lacking structured monitoring and evaluation and being heavily concentrated in Mogadishu.

The document examines the women's empowerment agenda in Somalia, contrasting the global Women, Peace and Security (WPS) framework with local historical and social contexts. It highlights the 'state feminism' of the Siyad Barre era (1969-1991), the disruptions caused by the civil war, and the influence of the Somali diaspora. The authors argue that international efforts focusing primarily on political quotas may overlook the substantive civic and informal leadership roles Somali women hold, potentially delegitimizing the agenda by appearing incompatible with local norms.

Somaliland is described as a rare success story of stability and democracy in the Horn of Africa, though this progress is considered fragile. The report highlights critical weaknesses in its political system, specifically the chronic delay of presidential and parliamentary elections, and the influence of clan politics on governance. It identifies the lack of international recognition as a primary internal tension and warns of the growing influence of Salafism. Externally, the report notes ongoing border disputes with Puntland and the existential threat posed by the Somali Federal Government's refusal to accept Somaliland's independence.

The paper assesses the limitations of naval operations like EU Naval Force Operation ATALANTA and NATO's Operation Ocean Shield in addressing the root causes of Somali piracy. It identifies illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, political instability, and youth unemployment as primary drivers of piracy. While Somalia has established a legal framework through the Somalia Maritime Resource and Security Strategy (SMRSS), the declaration of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and the Federal Somali Fisheries Law, it lacks the technical capacity—such as Vessel Monitoring Systems and a Fisheries Monitoring Center—to enforce these laws. The author advocates for international navies to transition from purely military deterrents to supporting Somalia's coast guard and monitoring fishing activities to prevent a resurgence of piracy.

The report examines the successful conclusion of Somalia's third transitional arrangement on 20 August 2012. It details the roadmap's four priority tasks—security stabilization, constitutional adoption, reconciliation, and good governance—and the role of the Technical Selection Committee (TSC) in nominating parliament members. Key success factors included international unity, clear task sequencing, and the political maturity of the outgoing leadership. However, the process faced challenges such as bribery, the marginalization of women, and perceptions of international interference. The author argues that sustaining peace requires investing in human resources, resolving constitutional ambiguities regarding sharia and federalism, and better synchronizing AU and UN operations.

The report assesses how the Somali diaspora, comprising 14 per cent of the population, can contribute to the reconstruction of Somalia through financial, political, and socio-cultural engagement. It highlights the significant economic impact of remittances and the role of the diaspora in Kenya as a logistical and business hub. However, it also identifies critical challenges, including the persistence of clan-based interests, insecurity, and the involvement of some diaspora elements in supporting al-Shabaab or engaging in people smuggling.

The author argues that Somalia remains far from functional statehood despite the end of its transition period, citing a corrupt and factionalized Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a paralyzed Parliament. While external actors and Amisom forces have made security gains against Al-Shabaab and piracy, internal political instability, lack of legitimacy, and territorial disputes involving Puntland and Somaliland threaten the process. The document concludes that without genuine political will and inclusive engagement of stakeholders, the transition is unlikely to succeed.

The author argues that the presence of Saracen Security, a company owned by Salim Saleh (brother of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni), in Somalia risks delegitimizing the AMISOM mission. This involvement, combined with Uganda's history in the DRC, provides ideological ammunition for insurgents to claim that Uganda's military presence is driven by a desire for Somali oil. The document notes that international oil companies, such as Africa Oil (Canada), are actively pursuing exploration licenses in Puntland, further complicating the political landscape.

The document details a seminar presentation by Chief Superintendent Vance B Gariba and a response by Dr Emmanuel Kisiangani regarding the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). It examines the historical context of Somalia's instability, the mandate and achievements of AMISOM—including the training of over 2,000 Somali police—and the systemic failures of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The discussion highlights critical gaps in AMISOM's mandate, such as the lack of civilian protection, and suggests that long-term stability requires transformative institutional building and potential political engagement with Al Shabaab leaders.

The report analyzes how the Somali diaspora, estimated at 1-1.5 million people, supports its country of origin through private remittances, collective fundraising, and private investment. It highlights the critical role of the 'hawala' money transfer system and the significant impact of diaspora-funded social services in education and health. The document argues that while the diaspora is a vital lifeline, its effectiveness is hindered by security concerns, counter-terrorism regulations in host countries, and a lack of coordination. It recommends that the UN act as a facilitator by providing matching funds, improving the regulatory environment for transfers, and expanding professional return programs like QUESTS/MIDA.

The document critiques the African Union's (AU) decision to increase AMISOM forces from approximately 6,300 to 8,000 troops following Al-Shabaab bombings in Kampala in July 2010. It argues that the mission lacks the resources and political support necessary to succeed, noting that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) lacks national legitimacy. Drawing parallels to failures in Afghanistan and previous UN missions in Somalia, the authors suggest that military intervention alone cannot resolve the crisis. They recommend a holistic strategy centered on an all-inclusive political process involving Al-Shabaab, Hizbul Islam, Puntland, and Somaliland, alongside the involvement of regional actors like Ethiopia and Eritrea, before transferring the mandate to a fully resourced UN mission.

The briefing assesses the failure of the Djibouti reconciliation process and the subsequent dysfunction of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) under President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. It critiques the international community for relying on a simplistic 'moderates versus extremists' binary and a counter-terrorist framework that ignores Somali factionalism and the complexities of groups like Shabaab. The author contends that the TFG is perceived as a tool of foreign interests and is plagued by internal corruption and leadership weaknesses. The document recommends moving away from military solutions and instead engaging the broader armed opposition and all sectors of Somali society to achieve lasting peace.

The document analyzes the protracted conflict in Somalia, tracing its origins to colonial divisions and the subsequent collapse of the state in 1991. It examines the role of clan politics, the rise of religious fundamentalism through groups like al Shaabab, and the influence of regional actors, particularly Ethiopia. The author argues that the current Transitional Federal Government (TFG) remains militarily weak and lacks internal legitimacy, while the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is under-resourced. The paper recommends a comprehensive approach to peace that includes expanding the Djibouti process to include al Shaabab, addressing the security concerns of neighboring states, and deploying a robust UN peacekeeping force to replace AMISOM.