Search Climate Insights Directory

Nigeria is positioning itself as an African EV hub by leveraging high vehicle demand and private sector innovation in battery swapping and asset financing. The proposed Electric Vehicle Transition and Green Mobility Bill seeks to drive this shift by mandating 30% local content for EVs by 2030 and providing tax incentives for manufacturers and users. While companies like Spiro and MAX are scaling infrastructure and fleets, the report suggests Nigeria could adopt a more gradual transition from imports to local manufacturing, similar to Rwanda and Ethiopia, to avoid stalling adoption.

The report analyzes the Oko Oba Abattoir's anaerobic digestion (AD) facility, finding that while the current 'business-as-usual' (BAU) model is economically viable with a 6% IRR, scaling the facility to achieve a 100% fuel switch from charcoal to biogas would increase the IRR to 14%. The study highlights that high upfront capital expenditures (CAPEX) are a primary barrier to private investment, suggesting that grants, low-interest loans, and investment tax credits could improve project economics. Environmentally, the project reduces methane emissions by up to 726 MT/year and improves local air quality by avoiding PM2.5 emissions from charcoal burning. The facility is currently non-operational due to storm damage and requires approximately $21,400 for repairs.

RMI is implementing diverse decentralized energy solutions in Nigeria to address the fact that over 85 million people lack sustainable electricity. The organization has deployed interconnected minigrids in locations like Zawaciki, Abuja, and Nasarawa, and a community-centric 'Sharing the Power' model in Mokoloki where residents co-own the facility. To ensure economic viability, the Energizing Agriculture Programme (EAP) integrates solar power with agricultural machinery, such as electric mills and cold storage, across 17 communities. RMI also targets industrial emissions through commercial and industrial minigrids, which can reduce carbon pollution by approximately 33 million tons per year. Additionally, the Energy Transition Academy (ETA) provides technical training to utility professionals to scale these initiatives.

The 'Sharing the Power' project, supported by the Dutch Postcode Lottery and implemented by RMI and Nayo Tropical Technology Ltd., has upgraded a solar minigrid in Mokoloki, Ogun State, Nigeria. The project addresses capacity shortfalls caused by a 60 percent population increase and rising diesel costs by increasing battery capacity from 190 kWh to 316 kWh and switching to a DC coupled system. Central to the model is 'inclusive energy governance,' where the Mokoloki community holds an 11 percent stake in the project, granting them voting rights through a Community Power Association (CPA) and 11 percent of net revenues to fund communal projects such as roads, schools, and health centers.

The document examines the disconnect between Nigeria's top-down climate adaptation frameworks and the bottom-up initiatives already being implemented by local communities. It highlights that while national policies like the NDC and NAPF are comprehensive, they often exclude frontline stakeholders and lack clear implementation plans. Through case studies in Ogun and Anambra states and Lagos, the brief demonstrates how local actors use indigenous knowledge and nature-based solutions to combat deforestation, fisheries collapse, and gully erosion. It concludes that scaling up LLA can enhance national resilience if the government addresses critical gaps in finance, capacity building, and technology access.

Nigeria faces a significant housing shortage of 17 million units, with a projected need for 700,000 units annually by 2050. The report finds that the policy environment for net zero carbon buildings is fragmented, lacking an overarching national strategy. While some financial instruments like concessional loans and green bonds are well-established, many others remain nascent or unused. The most severe barriers are political (lack of regulations and standards) and financial (lack of affordable finance and awareness of funding). The report recommends five priority areas: embodied carbon and materials, appliances and lighting, cooling, electricity generation, and clean cooking, proposing specific financial and policy pathways to scale these solutions.

The report examines the disconnect between Nigeria's top-down climate adaptation frameworks and the actual practices of frontline communities. Through case studies in Ogun, Lagos, and Anambra states, it demonstrates that community-led initiatives—such as biogas production, aquaculture modifications, and traditional erosion control—are already occurring despite limited finance and technical support. The authors argue that integrating these bottom-up strategies into national policies like the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is essential for sustained climate resilience.

The document evaluates Nigeria's climate adaptation landscape, contrasting high-level national policy frameworks with iterative, indigenous practices at the local level. While Nigeria has established ambitious frameworks like the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), implementation is hindered by a 'top-down approach' that excludes local stakeholders, alongside gaps in finance, technology, and capacity. Case studies in Ogun, Lagos, and Anambra states demonstrate that local communities are already implementing Nature-based Solutions (NbSs) and traditional adaptation methods—such as biogas production from cassava waste and the use of bitter leaf juice in aquaculture—that align with national goals despite a lack of formal policy awareness. The authors argue that integrating these locally-led initiatives into national frameworks is essential to prevent climate impacts from increasing GDP losses from 5% to 30% by 2050.

The report argues that while Nigeria has comprehensive national adaptation frameworks, there is a significant gap between high-level policy and local implementation. It highlights that locally led adaptation (LLA) is already occurring through community-driven initiatives in biogas production, aquaculture, and erosion control, but these efforts are hindered by a lack of finance, technical capacity, and political will. The authors advocate for a shift from 'top-down' approaches to those that empower frontline communities to lead the design and monitoring of adaptation actions.

The report evaluates the integration of small-format electric vehicles (EVs) with rural minigrids, finding that while EVs can be cost-competitive with petrol alternatives, their success depends on high vehicle utilization and business models tailored to local needs. A Nigeria pilot using a two-wheeler leasing model showed promise, whereas an India pilot using a battery leasing model for three-wheelers failed due to high operational costs and drivers charging via the subsidized grid. Technoeconomic modeling indicates that EV charging can lower minigrid tariffs, particularly when charging occurs during daytime solar production, though the impact is modest unless fleet utilization is significantly increased.

The Mokoloki undergrid minigrid project in Ogun State, Nigeria, has demonstrated the feasibility of providing reliable solar power to communities that are connected to the national grid but suffer from unreliable supply. Through a tripartite partnership between the Mokoloki community, Nayo Tropical Technology, and the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC), the project has achieved 100% collection rates and doubled its revenue within 18 months. The system, comprising 100 kWp solar PV and battery storage, has significantly improved energy reliability compared to the previous utility service and is driving local economic growth by supporting productive uses of electricity for commercial customers.

The Mokoloki project demonstrates a new 'undergrid' business model where a private developer, Nayo Tropical Technologies, provides reliable electricity to a community within the territory of the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC). The pilot has achieved 99.9 percent reliability, reduced energy costs for customers by ₦20/kWh, and decreased utility losses in the area by over 90 percent. The project supports local healthcare through 24/7 power for clinics and stimulates economic growth by powering small businesses and attracting new enterprises.

The Mokoloki project, launched in February 2020, serves as a proof-of-concept for an 'undergrid' model in Nigeria, where a solar hybrid minigrid replaces a weak grid connection through a tripartite agreement between a utility, a developer, and the community. The project has demonstrated technical reliability of 99.9% and provided economic benefits, including reduced electricity costs for customers and lower technical and commercial losses for the utility. It utilizes an operator-led business model where the developer manages generation and operations while paying a fixed monthly distribution usage fee to the utility.

The report examines the Nigerian minigrid sector, highlighting a potential annual revenue opportunity of ₦2.8 trillion (US$8 billion). Based on audits of ten commercial projects, it identifies best practices such as optimal site selection, community engagement, and appliance financing. While the regulatory environment is generally supportive, the report identifies barriers including high hardware costs, limited affordable finance, and inconsistent customs processes, proposing a series of stakeholder-specific actions to accelerate market growth.

The Reiner Lemoine Institut (RLI) developed electrification plans for five Nigerian states to achieve 100% electrification using a combination of grid extension, solar hybrid mini-grids, and solar home systems. The project addressed challenges such as data scarcity, modelling complexity, and undefined institutional structures through the use of GIS and energy system simulation tools. In cooperation with the Nigerian Energy Support Programme (NESP), the initiative included capacity-building workshops for stakeholders on data management and energy demand modelling to provide local governments with evidence-based investment and capacity requirements.

The paper investigates Chinese manufacturing investment in Nigeria, finding limited but significant technology transfer, particularly in automobile assembly and light manufacturing. While Chinese firms provide employment and affordable machinery, the study notes a lack of sectoral clustering in special economic zones and weak backward linkages to the local economy. It highlights the role of Nigerian import substitution policies in attracting investment but warns of reputational risks due to unethical business practices by some Chinese firms.

The policy brief examines the broad economic relationship between China and Nigeria, highlighting significant investments in oil, infrastructure, and agriculture, while identifying the banking sector as an under-developed area for future cooperation. It details existing financial links, such as the involvement of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and First Bank, and suggests that current reforms in the Nigerian banking sector create opportunities for Chinese acquisitions and investments. The author notes that while past projects were often marred by corruption, the banking sector offers a new avenue for mutual economic benefit and regional expansion.

The document analyzes the regulatory reforms in the Nigerian banking sector and the broader scope of Chinese economic diplomacy in Nigeria, suggesting that the banking sector represents an understudied but promising area for further Sino-Nigerian cooperation.

The document examines Chinese investment in Nigeria's free trade zones (FTZs), focusing on the Lekki Free Trade Zone (LFTZ) and the Ogun Guangdong Free Trade Zone (OGFTZ). It highlights that while Nigeria has provided generous tax and ownership incentives since 1992, implementation has been slow due to infrastructural weaknesses and governance uncertainties. The LFTZ, a joint venture where a Chinese consortium holds a 60% stake, has faced challenges including internal consortium disputes, funding delays, and power supply issues. The author argues that Nigeria's high-risk profile gave Chinese investors excessive leverage, leading to an initially over-generous 50-year lease agreement that was later renegotiated to reduce the zone's size and mandate a 40% Nigerian workforce. The brief concludes that for FTZs to succeed and facilitate technology transfer, African governments must ensure high-level political commitment, maintain a confident negotiating stance, and improve the overall business climate.

The document details local adaptation efforts in Nigeria across three sectors: biogas production in Ogun state to reduce fuelwood reliance and protect forests; aquaculture improvements in Lagos state to secure livelihoods against climate impacts; and erosion control in Anambra state to prevent land degradation. While these actions align with Nigeria's NDCs and national policies, they are hindered by limited financial services, poor government support, and a lack of advanced technological know-how.