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The paper argues that the World Bank's target of reducing extreme poverty to below 3% by 2030 is unrealistic for most African nations. Using a revised extreme poverty line of US$1.75 (2011 PPP), the authors propose a more achievable continental goal of reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030 and below 4% by 2045. The analysis emphasizes that while pro-poor economic growth provides the most immediate impact, a combined approach including social assistance, human development, and progressive social change is necessary to address chronic poverty and structural inequalities.

The February 2015 Peace & Security Council Report details the AU's efforts to manage continental security crises. Key outcomes include the authorization of a 7,500-strong Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) to combat Boko Haram and a new tiered funding model for the AU budget. However, the report notes significant setbacks, such as the deferral of the Commission of Inquiry report on South Sudan and deep divisions within the International Contact Group on Libya. It also highlights the high risk of election-related violence across 18 African states in 2015 and the ongoing struggle to defeat al-Shabaab in Somalia.

The policy brief assesses the underperformance of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), noting that US imports from Africa remain dominated by energy commodities. It proposes a four-pillar strategy for the 2015 renewal: a clean, long-term extension of at least 10 years; the reduction of non-tariff barriers through expanded US Trade Hubs and relaxed rules of origin for least-developed countries; structural reforms including the Power Africa initiative and the development of African capital markets; and alignment with global trade frameworks like the TPP and TTIP to ensure African competitiveness.

The paper argues that financial inclusion is essential for alleviating poverty and stimulating local economic development in Africa. It identifies significant barriers to formal banking for the rural poor, including strict 'Know Your Customer' (KYC) regulations, lack of documentation, and geographic distance from banks. Consequently, many rely on informal savings and credit schemes—such as esusu in Nigeria and susu in Ghana—and informal remittance networks, which provide flexibility but carry high risks due to lack of regulation. The author highlights M-Pesa in Kenya as a successful model of mobile-led financial inclusion, contrasting it with less successful attempts in other countries. The document emphasizes that physical infrastructure must be paired with financial literacy to be sustainable and recommends that governments create enabling regulatory environments, diversify financial products (including Islamic banking), and improve credit-reporting infrastructure for SMEs.

The report examines the gap between Africa's strong rhetorical commitment to regional integration and the limited actual progress achieved. Using APRM data from 17 countries, it identifies systemic barriers including reluctance to cede national sovereignty, overlapping memberships in multiple regional economic communities (RECs), inadequate infrastructure, and a lack of private sector involvement. While some blocs like the East African Community (EAC) show more progress, most have not advanced beyond free trade areas or customs unions, and intra-African trade remains low compared to trade with external partners like the EU and China.

The report provides an 'Afro-realistic' analysis of accountability in Africa, contrasting the potential of continental initiatives like the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) and Agenda 2063 with the practical challenges of domestic implementation. It investigates the roles of the African Union (AU), national parliaments, ombudsman offices, and civil society in curbing executive power and ensuring sustainable peace. The text highlights a tension between economic development and democratic governance, noting that while some states achieve growth, it often occurs at the expense of human rights.

The report examines the intersection of energy poverty and gender inequality in West Africa, highlighting how socially determined roles lead to differential access to and use of energy services. It identifies significant barriers for women in the energy workforce and entrepreneurship, including gaps in STEM education and limited access to land and finance. The document assesses the existing regional and national policy landscapes, noting a general lack of gender-disaggregated data and limited collaboration between energy and gender ministries. It argues for a gender-responsive approach to energy planning to maximize the impact of interventions and achieve universal energy access by 2030.

The document examines the paradox of resource-led growth in sub-Saharan Africa, where windfall revenues from minerals and hydrocarbons often correlate with declining governance and institutional quality. It highlights the negative externalities of extraction and the role of foreign investment in shaping 'elite bargains' between political and business leaders. The author argues that for resource wealth to foster sustainable development, research must focus on reducing commodity concentration, improving institutional accountability, and balancing the trade-offs between extractive growth and climate change mitigation.

The document analyzes the evolution of community-company engagements in the mining, oil, and gas sectors, emphasizing the need for community-driven processes to ensure fair outcomes. It categorizes types of agreements—ranging from Joint Venture Agreements to Consultation and Negotiation Agreements—and evaluates the risks associated with government-led processes. Through case studies in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and Ghana, the paper highlights the importance of self-identification of affected communities and the role of international human rights frameworks, such as the UN Guiding Principles and FPIC, in protecting community rights.

The document analyzes Nigeria's experience with the APRM, highlighting that while the peer review process is a valuable diagnostic tool, the subsequent implementation of the National Programme of Action (NPoA) faces severe hurdles. In Nigeria, these include poor monitoring and evaluation, limited technical capacity, funding constraints, and a lack of legal standing for NEPAD Nigeria. The brief also notes a decline in civil society engagement due to mistrust and lack of donor funding, concluding that success requires strong political will, better communication, and the integration of the NPoA into national development strategies.

The Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance conducted a Phase 2 analysis of seven climate finance instruments based on four criteria: actionability, innovativeness, catalytic potential, and transformative impact. Following this assessment, four instruments—the Agricultural Supply Chain Adaptation Facility, Climate Development & Finance Facility, Energy Savings Insurance, and Long-term Currency Swap—were selected to move into Phase 3 for detailed financial modeling and implementation planning. The report details the goals and analytical findings for all seven instruments, including those focused on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and agricultural resilience, while highlighting the need for public sector support and donor capital to mitigate risks and catalyze private investment.

The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

The document analyzes the evolving energy partnership between the US and South Africa, framed by the US's shift toward energy independence via shale gas and its 'Power Africa' initiative. While South Africa is interested in the US model for shale gas and renewables, the briefing argues that South Africa must remain cautious regarding hydraulic fracturing due to severe water constraints and infrastructure gaps. It highlights the US-South Africa Strategic Dialogue as a mechanism for cooperation on clean energy, carbon capture, and hydrocarbon development, while noting that US initiatives in Africa have targeted a limited number of countries.

The document analyzes the 'vertical' healthcare approach favored by Western nations—which targets specific diseases—versus the 'horizontal' approach traditionally used by China, which focuses on infrastructure and integrated systems. While both provided short-term emergency aid during the Ebola crisis, the author argues that China's long-term strategy of building healthcare infrastructure is more sustainable for African states. The brief suggests that an ideal response combines both systems and calls for increased cooperation between China and the West, alongside regular UN Security Council meetings on public health, to strengthen global health security.

The paper advocates for the use of strategic foresight and integrated policy analysis to help African governments navigate complex development trade-offs and set realistic targets. It highlights the International Futures (IFs) model as a tool for scenario analysis and evidence-based planning, using it to critique the feasibility of certain Agenda 2063 goals, such as the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 and the 'silencing the guns' initiative by 2020. The author emphasizes that such foresight is dependent on improving the quality and availability of reliable data across the continent.

The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa generally follows a global pattern of decline when measured relative to population growth, though this was disrupted by the Cold War and has seen a recent uptick since 2010. Africa is uniquely characterized by high levels of 'non-state conflict'—violence between armed groups not involving the government—which the author attributes to weak governance. While terrorism is rising globally, the Middle East is currently experiencing faster growth than Africa. The paper also highlights that internal conflicts now dominate globally over interstate wars, and warns that climate change may increase local conflicts over resources in northern and southern Africa.

The document analyzes the African Group's engagement at the UN Human Rights Council, noting a tension between a desire for regional leadership and a tendency to grant accused governments veto power over resolutions. While some 'human rights-friendly' states consistently support country-specific resolutions, others systematically abstain or oppose them, leading to an uneven response to crises across the continent and globally.

The document analyzes Côte d’Ivoire's efforts to relaunch its regional diplomacy under President Alassane Ouattara following two decades of instability. It highlights the country's economic strength as a primary asset and its goal to become an emerging economy by 2020. Key challenges include the need for security sector reform, national reconciliation, and the professionalization of its diplomatic corps to better align with the integration goals of ECOWAS and UEMOA.

The policy brief argues that Nigeria is experiencing a self-inflicted decline in its diplomatic standing within Africa. Despite being the continent's nominally largest economy as of May 2014, Nigeria's foreign policy is described as inchoate and ambiguous, hampered by a 'perverse hiatus' between its domestic ecology—marked by corruption and the Boko Haram insurgency—and its international ambitions. The author contends that Nigeria has lost its pre-eminence in Africa, failing to command respect even within ECOWAS and falling behind South Africa in governance and infrastructure. The document recommends that Nigeria prioritize domestic stability, clean government, and a recomposed social contract to restore its leadership role.

The document analyzes Kenya's regional diplomatic history, noting a traditional preference for cautious, pragmatic engagement over political leadership. It highlights a significant shift in approach with the military intervention in Somalia and discusses the complexities of Kenya's relations with South Africa and the East African Community. The author argues that Kenya often 'punches below its weight' and recommends a more strategic use of hard and soft power to enhance its regional leverage.