Search Climate Insights Directory

The report analyzes the intersection of private security services and international law, specifically focusing on the definition of mercenaries under Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions and the legal obligations of states where such companies are based. It explores the legitimacy of providing military support to governments versus dissident parties, the risks of privatizing security for corporations in weak states, and the ethical and legal dilemmas humanitarian organisations face when considering armed escorts. The text concludes that the rise of 'new mercenaries' requires a coordinated UN response to prevent the erosion of national sovereignty and ensure adherence to humanitarian principles.

This report provides a spatial analysis of disaster incidence in Central America and the Dominican Republic between 1950 and 2020. It identifies that hydrometeorological events, specifically floods and landslides, are the most recurrent threats, often coinciding with high-density urban areas and coastal zones. The study highlights a significant increase in recorded disasters since 1990, peaking in 2010. It further correlates disaster risk with physical variables, noting that 70.7% of records occur below 1,000 meters above sea level and that a high percentage of critical territories are located in areas with medium to high population density. The analysis also observes a decline in forest cover and an increase in pasture land from 1990 to 2018, linking these land-use changes to increased disaster vulnerability.

The study analyzes 285 conflict episodes to determine how natural resources affect the duration of postconflict peace. It identifies three primary mechanisms: distribution, financing, and aggravation. The findings indicate that while natural resource conflicts generally show shorter peace periods bivariately, only conflicts driven by disagreements over the distribution of resources and revenues significantly increase the risk of recurrence in a multivariate analysis. This suggests that resource-related grievances are a more persistent driver of conflict relapse than the mere opportunity to finance warfare.

The authors present a dataset of 357 armed conflict episodes (1946–2006) to track post-conflict justice (PCJ) processes. PCJ is defined as any process initiated within five years of a conflict's end to address wrongdoings. The dataset identifies six primary tools: trials, truth commissions, reparations, amnesties, purges, and exiles. Preliminary analysis shows that the choice of justice mechanism is influenced by conflict intensity, incompatibility (territorial vs. government control), and the type of termination (victory vs. bargained solution). For instance, trials are more frequent after decisive victories, while amnesties are more common after bargained solutions and in high-intensity civil wars.

The research examines the determinants of external state support for rebel groups using a new dataset of 403 organizations. It argues that support is not merely a function of the civil war's general characteristics but depends on the specific attributes of the rebel group and the international relations of the target state. The findings indicate that moderately strong groups with transnational constituencies are most likely to receive aid, particularly when the target state is involved in an international rivalry or receives its own external support. Conversely, very strong or very weak groups, and those in democratic states, are less likely to be supported.

The Strategies of Resistance Data Project (SRDP) provides a global dataset of 1,124 organizations involved in self-determination disputes between 1960 and 2005. Unlike previous datasets that focus on mass campaigns or violent actors, SRDP uses the organization as the unit of analysis to track tactical shifts. Findings indicate that nonviolent tactics are more common than violence in these movements, and organizations are more likely to switch from violence to nonviolence than vice versa.

The author examines the challenges of gathering data on sexual violence in war, noting that it is often used as a political tool to demoralize enemies and reinforce masculinity. The text highlights historical examples from Nanking, Berlin, Rwanda, and Bosnia to illustrate the systemic nature of these crimes. It argues that current data collection is hindered by victim stigma, lack of uniform definitions, and poor baseline data. To move from 'overview to insight,' the author suggests that researchers must analyze how sexual violence interacts with national and gender identities, noting that victims who view themselves as 'ethnic victims' often find more social support than those who view themselves as 'female victims.'

The study analyzes 142 self-determination movements across 77 countries to determine the preventive effects of UNSC actions. It finds that direct diplomatic engagement significantly reduces the probability of armed conflict onset. Additionally, while direct force and sanctions show limited or positive correlations with conflict, indirect authorizations of force and sanctions—those applied in a broader regional or state-wide context—act as powerful deterrents, reducing the likelihood of civil war for related self-determination groups.

The report critiques the U.S. reliance on military force and nuclear deterrence, arguing that such policies create instability and economic decay. It proposes a 'Security Without War' model centered on nonprovocative defense (NPD), where military forces are structured exclusively for defense to avoid provoking adversaries. The authors advocate for addressing the root causes of conflict through sustainable resource management, debt relief for the Third World, and the promotion of 'strong democracy'—characterized by minority protections and civil society—both domestically and abroad. The document also calls for the total international control and eventual disarmament of nuclear weapons, the strengthening of the United Nations and World Court, and the empowerment of municipal governments to conduct non-military foreign policies.

The document highlights the difficulty of tracking climate finance in Latin America due to fragmented funding channels and inconsistent definitions of key terms. It presents data from the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC) showing that international public climate finance for eight countries between 2010 and 2015 primarily consists of loans and is skewed toward mitigation over adaptation. The authors call for mutually agreed definitions, clear reporting guidelines, and capacity building within national governments to improve the collection and use of climate finance data for decision-making.

The report examines the impact of improved cookstoves in Central America, noting that while many stoves reduce emissions, they often fail to meet WHO air quality guidelines for personal exposure. It identifies user-centered design, training, and financing as critical for adoption, while highlighting a lack of longitudinal data on sustained use.

The document serves as a guide for designing agricultural development efforts that empower both women and men in Sub-Saharan Africa. It originated from a process initiated by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swedish International Agricultural Network Initiative (SIANI) to move beyond the analysis of gender roles toward devising mechanisms for changing attitudes and roles to support food security, agricultural sector growth, and poverty alleviation. The report includes analytical frameworks and case studies covering topics such as land rights, value chains, household methodologies, and 'climate-smart' agriculture.

The document explains the mechanics of carbon credits, distinguishing between regulated markets under the Paris Agreement and voluntary markets. It highlights that while Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 22% of global carbon credit sales in 2021, the region lacks the robust regulation needed to prevent environmental and social risks. The guide warns against over-reliance on the forestry sector, the risk of 'greenwashing' in voluntary markets, and the potential for 'double counting' of emission reductions. It recommends establishing transparent national registries, ensuring fair benefit-sharing with local communities, and prioritizing structural decarbonization over simple offsetting.

The executive summary argues that strengthening legal forest rights for Indigenous Peoples and local communities is a vital tool for mitigating climate change. It finds that forests under strong legal recognition and government protection experience significantly lower deforestation rates than those without such protections. The document emphasizes that legal rights alone are insufficient if governments undermine them through the allocation of resource concessions or failure to prevent illegal encroachments.

The report argues that large-scale landscape restoration in Latin America and the Caribbean is economically attractive, estimating a net present value of $23 billion over 50 years for the restoration of 20 million hectares. The analysis identifies agricultural productivity gains and carbon sequestration as the primary drivers of economic value, though results vary significantly by biome and degree of degradation. The study emphasizes that such efforts are critical for the region to achieve a low-carbon development path and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change.