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The document provides administrative and bibliographic information for the Burkina Faso Development Futures research, detailing the open-access nature of the work and the objectives of the African Futures & Innovation (AFI) program at the Institute for Security Studies.

The report forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.962 billion by 2043, with a significant shift toward urbanization. While regional GDP is projected to increase substantially, reaching between US$6.2 trillion and US$6.7 trillion, GDP per capita growth is tempered by rapid population increases. The region is expected to face increasing food insecurity as agricultural demand outstrips production. Energy production is projected to shift toward renewables, yet total carbon emissions are forecast to rise by over 146% by 2043, with Nigeria expected to overtake South Africa as the region's largest emitter.

The document examines 'technological leapfrogging' in Africa, focusing on how decentralised renewable energy, mobile finance, and artificial intelligence can overcome infrastructure deficits. It presents a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario projecting significant GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while providing policy recommendations to address structural bottlenecks in skills, financing, and regulation.

The document examines how frontier technologies enable developing countries, particularly in Africa, to bypass costly traditional infrastructure. It highlights the use of drones for precision agriculture in Mozambique and medical logistics in Rwanda, as well as the application of the Internet of Things for water safety in Bangladesh and the increasing accessibility of small-scale satellites for urban planning and land-use monitoring.

The research paper argues that Africa's infrastructure deficit is a cumulative result of colonial-era designs focused on extraction, post-independence mismanagement, and the impact of 1980s debt crises and Structural Adjustment Programs. It notes that colonial railways shaped current urban locations and that recent investments have often focused on prestige projects or specific corridors funded by external partners like China.

At the 2026 African Development Bank (AfDB) Annual Meetings, Recourse is calling for a shift in development finance to prioritise equitable renewable energy access and a just transition across Africa. The organisation demands a dedicated financing window for decentralised renewable energy (DRE), targeting at least 30% of energy access financing by 2027, and urges the Bank to halt all LNG and fossil gas financing. Recourse also advocates for grant-based and concessional public finance to prevent increasing debt distress and calls for stronger protections for communities affected by energy and extractive projects.

Eleven civil society organizations, including Reclaim Finance, have called on Agirc-Arrco, ERAFP, and the Fonds de réserve pour les retraites to cease supporting fossil fuel expansion. The signatories argue that continued investments, particularly through bonds and external managers like BlackRock, exacerbate climate change and expose portfolios to financial risks. They specifically highlight TotalEnergies' recent climate setbacks, including the abandonment of its 2050 carbon neutrality goal in March 2026, as evidence that shareholder dialogue is insufficient. The letter demands an immediate end to new investments in oil and gas projects, systematic voting against directors of expanding fossil fuel companies, and the implementation of science-based climate criteria for selecting external asset managers.

The document analyzes the proposed changes to Mozambique's Petroleum Law, arguing that while the government aims to attract investment and economic development, the law remains vague on community rights. It emphasizes that legally binding agreements between oil companies and affected populations are only effective if communities have independent legal and technical support. The text warns that the inclusion of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) may be used to justify continued fossil fuel extraction without addressing the costs borne by local populations. It calls for 'real consultations' and specific, verifiable benefit-sharing mechanisms to ensure that extractive wealth does not solely benefit the elite while locals suffer land loss and pollution.

The document examines the revision of Mozambique's Petroleum Law, highlighting the risks that the new framework may prioritize investor confidence over community rights. It identifies key changes, such as the introduction of binding agreements with affected communities, human rights compliance reports, and the inclusion of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) technology. The author argues that without specific, enforceable rules on land rights, compensation, and benefit-sharing, these legal changes may remain symbolic and fail to protect local populations from the costs of extractive development.

The report argues that the TotalEnergies-EPH joint venture (TTEP) locks Europe into fossil gas dependency, increases energy bill volatility through LNG imports, and relies on public subsidies that should be redirected toward clean energy. It highlights that the venture's 12.5 GW gas capacity will produce emissions comparable to entire countries like Ireland or Denmark over five years, while challenging the companies' claims that such assets are necessary for grid flexibility.

The report finds that TotalEnergies' investment strategy heavily favors fossil fuels, with 4.8 dollars invested in oil and gas for every dollar spent on integrated power in 2025. The company's 2030 production targets are projected to be at least 59% higher than levels required for NZE alignment. While diversifying into renewables, the report notes this is largely through acquisitions and remains marginal, with oil and gas expected to represent 83% of the energy mix by 2030. Additionally, the company is expanding its LNG capacity and gas power production, while relying on CCUS and offsets to meet emissions targets it has recently modified, including a statement in 2026 that it could no longer commit to a 'net zero' objective.

The report analyzes the integration of voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) into national systems to boost sustainable exports and producer practices. It emphasizes the need for strong legal foundations, continuous support for smallholders through training and market information, and inclusive stakeholder engagement. The document argues that VSSs can facilitate market diversification and reduce overdependence on large buyers, provided that governments implement structured collaborations between industry and VSS organizations.

The report highlights significant gaps and uncertainties in global coal mine methane (CMM) emissions reporting, noting that 89% of emissions were left unreported in 2023. It criticizes the reliance on generic emission factors (Tiers 1 and 2) used for 87% of global coal production and advocates for the transition to direct, facility-level measurements (Tier 3) to increase data confidence and support mitigation policies.

The report evaluates three closure pathways for artisanal gold mines in Marmato, Colombia, finding that progressive closure using nature-based infrastructure (NBI) provides a return of USD 1.44 for every USD 1 invested. The primary economic driver is the reduction of mortality risks from landslides, rockfalls, and tunnel collapses. NBI interventions, including reforestation and hydrological restoration, are shown to be more cost-effective when implemented during operations rather than at the end of mine life.

The report details systemic gender discrimination in African households, highlighting the prevalence of child marriage, the disproportionate burden of unpaid care work on women, and legal and cultural barriers to equal divorce and inheritance rights.

The report describes a 'narrowing funnel' in sub-Saharan African education, where high initial primary enrolment is offset by significant 'leaks' at each subsequent level, leading to very low tertiary graduation rates. It contrasts these outcomes with North Africa and global benchmarks, noting that sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to miss several 2030 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets. The analysis highlights a growing intergenerational education gap and predicts that the attainment gap between sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions will widen by 2030.

The Agriculture scenario projects a significant increase in Africa's agricultural production, reducing food import dependence and extreme poverty while boosting GDP. By 2043, production could reach 2,167 million metric tons, with Nigeria emerging as the most significant producer. The scenario is expected to reduce the number of extremely poor Africans to 339 million and increase the total economy by US$354 billion compared to the Current Path. However, these gains depend on water availability, climate-driven carbon fertilisation, and the adoption of temperature-tolerant cultivars.

Since independence, African agriculture has lagged behind global productivity due to a lack of resource allocation, tenure reform, and infrastructure. Despite possessing 45% of the world's land suitable for sustainable production expansion, the continent remains the most food-insecure region globally, with yields remaining roughly half of the global average. Productivity is further hampered by conflict in states like Angola and DR Congo, extreme weather events, and significant deforestation, with 4 million hectares of forest lost annually. While the African Union's CAADP initiative aims to drive growth, most national budgets allocate only 5-7% to agriculture, leaving smallholder farmers—who provide 80% of sub-Saharan production—without essential inputs and market access.

The PURE Rural Mozambique Climate Project seeks EUR 37.415 million from the Green Climate Fund to implement 30–40 solar-powered mini-grids and 300–400 climate-smart PURE solutions. The project focuses on strengthening the institutional capacity of Mozambique's National Energy Fund (FUNAE), developing a pipeline of investment-ready projects, and using Results-Based Financing (RBF) to catalyze private sector investment. It targets 66,200 direct and 158,800 indirect beneficiaries, aiming to reduce GHG emissions by 399,131.26 tCO2eq over 25 years while improving rural livelihoods against climate hazards like droughts and cyclones.

The document analyzes the strategic interests of the EU and Indonesia in Africa's critical raw materials sector, arguing that their differing strengths—the EU's financial and regulatory capacity and Indonesia's downstream industrialisation experience—could be combined through triangular cooperation to support African development and reduce mutual dependence on China.