Search Climate Insights Directory

The report examines energy security in Southern Africa, focusing on the need to expand electricity generation capacity and diversify away from coal. It identifies the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) as a key mechanism for regional cooperation to exploit vast hydropower potential in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique. However, the report notes that urgent short-term power shortages often lead countries, especially South Africa, to rely on quicker, coal-fired solutions, creating a 'lock-in' effect. It argues that for SAPP to succeed, the region must overcome significant regulatory risks, high upfront capital costs for hydropower, and a lack of cost-reflective pricing in national utilities.

The briefing examines the 2010 constitutional referendum in Madagascar, arguing that the process is unilateral and designed to consolidate the power of leader Rajoelina. It highlights the lack of consensus between international actors—specifically the divide between SADC/AU and France/EU—and warns that without inclusive dialogue, institutional reform, and security sector overhaul, the country will remain trapped in a cycle of political crises.

The document provides a comprehensive overview of social accountability in Africa, defining it as a framework for citizens to demand and enforce accountability from power-holders. It combines a broad analysis of public attitudes via Afrobarometer data with specific case studies from South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar. The text examines various tools—such as the Local Governance Barometer, budget monitoring, and the African Peer Review Mechanism—and highlights the critical role of political will, media engagement, and the necessity of an enabling legal environment for these initiatives to succeed.

The document analyzes three generations of unconstitutional power shifts in Africa, from post-independence coups to modern manipulations of term limits and 'models' of military intervention. It argues that while Regional Economic Communities (RECs) like ECOWAS and SADC have the potential to mitigate these trends through sanctions and democratic protocols, their effectiveness is hindered by state sovereignty, inconsistent implementation of laws, and the influence of powerful regional leaders who support usurpers. The authors recommend that RECs focus on root causes—such as socioeconomic stagnation and weak institutions—and encourage the ratification of the AU Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.

The document examines the 2009 transition of power from President Marc Ravalomanana to Andry Rajoelina, framing it as part of a historical pattern of popular uprisings and governance failures in Madagascar. It details the catalysts of the crisis, including accusations of bad governance and the role of the 'urban mob' in Antananarivo, while assessing the international community's response and mediation efforts led by Joachim Chissano. The author argues that sustainable stability requires addressing root causes such as extreme poverty and the lack of credible electoral mechanisms.

The document assesses the role of human rights in African international relations, arguing that while the continent has established significant monitoring bodies and ratified treaties, human rights often remain a "variable concern" subordinated to national interests and geopolitical strategies. It highlights the influence of "African solutions to African problems" in conflict resolution and the impact of China's non-interference policy as an alternative to Western conditionality. The author concludes that for human rights to be central to foreign policy, African states must develop a unified continental approach that harmonizes trade, security, and justice while adhering to agreed-upon democratic standards.

The document examines how human rights are integrated into African international relations, noting a gap between formal commitments to regional and international treaties and the practical application of these norms. It highlights how national interests, historical colonial ties, and the emergence of non-conditional economic partnerships—particularly with China—often supersede human rights considerations. The author analyzes specific cases, such as the African Union's response to the ICC warrant for Omar Al-Bashir and South Africa's diplomatic balancing act, to argue that human rights often remain a "variable concern" rather than a central pillar of foreign policy.

The report examines the rise of foreign land and water acquisitions driven by food, energy, and water security concerns. It highlights a shift from market-driven comparative advantage to 'long-distance farming' to meet home-state needs. The authors analyze how the interaction between domestic law, international investment contracts, and international investment agreements (IIAs) often prioritizes foreign investor rights over local users and sustainable development goals, potentially limiting host governments' ability to regulate for public health, environment, or food security.

The briefing argues that Andry Rajoelina's ascent to power in Madagascar in March 2009 was an "unconstitutional change of government" because it bypassed electoral processes and violated constitutional age requirements and succession rules. It notes that the military's role in declaring Rajoelina president overrode President Marc Ravalomanana's suggestion of a military directorate. The document suggests that Rajoelina may have been inspired by Ravalomanana's own 2002 seizure of power. It attributes the failure of mediation to a lack of coordination among numerous international and local actors, including the AU, SADC, and IOC, and warns that the political instability has adversely affected Madagascar's tourism sector.

The document analyzes how China's decentralization and internationalization have empowered its provinces to act as multilayered foreign policy actors in Africa. It details their roles in trade, construction, investment, and aid, noting that while they often act as agents of the central government, they increasingly pursue independent economic interests. The authors argue that this subnational engagement facilitates deeper Sino-African relations but can also create diplomatic friction due to labor disputes and unethical business practices. The paper suggests that African nations should adopt a multilevel approach to engagement by partnering directly with Chinese provinces to attract investment and share developmental expertise.

The document examines the methodological requirements for conducting representative public opinion surveys to support the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). It argues that while participatory consultations are useful for public ownership, they often produce biased results. Instead, the author advocates for random probability sampling, noting that relatively small samples (e.g., 1,200 respondents) can provide accurate national estimates. The paper outlines essential prerequisites—such as recent census data and freedom of travel—and warns against the common error of polling only heads of households, which biases results toward older, employed males. It also provides a practical timeline and cost estimate for implementing such surveys in Africa.

The paper examines the methodological requirements for conducting credible representative public opinion surveys within the framework of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). It contrasts the limitations of 'participatory' consultations—which often suffer from self-selection bias—with the precision of random probability sampling. The author provides technical guidance on sample sizes, the necessity of accurate census data, and the importance of sampling individual citizens rather than household heads. It also outlines the practical costs and timelines for implementing such surveys in Africa, suggesting that national surveys of 1,200 respondents typically cost between $85,000 and $125,000.

The report identifies eight critical success factors and fourteen performance indicators for start-up social and environmental enterprises in developing countries. These tools are designed to help entrepreneurs and investors assess the likelihood of success and monitor progress across a 'triple bottom line' of economic, social, and environmental goals. The findings are based on a literature review and empirical research with ten SEED-supported enterprises.

The paper examines the tendency of executive branches in Africa to monopolize power, attributing this to inherited colonial structures and a lack of institutional capacity. It highlights how the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) has exposed these governance deficiencies. The author argues that while formal separation of powers exists, it is undermined by political realities and a culture of the 'Big Man'. To counter this, the document advocates for empowering civil society with information to hold the executive accountable and bolstering the independence and resources of the legislature and judiciary.

The document analyzes the tendency of executive branches in African governments to monopolize power, often resulting in the 'big man' cult of personality. It argues that while constitutional frameworks for the separation of powers exist, they are frequently undermined by political realities, lack of resources, and colonial legacies. The author suggests that effective legislative and judicial bodies, supported by an informed and active civil society, are essential to curbing executive abuse and ensuring good governance.

The report identifies political instability, crumbling infrastructure, a severe credit crunch, and the absence of the rule of law as the primary barriers to African economic development. It argues that while large-scale projects are often prioritized, the immediate economic payoff lies in the regular maintenance of existing transport and utility services and the reform of legal systems to protect property rights and enforce contracts. The document highlights a critical funding gap, noting that while Africa requires $64 billion in investments to meet growth targets, donors provide only about $14 billion annually. Corruption is identified as a pervasive corrosive force, with 52% of surveyed business organisations stating that bribes are necessary to open a business.

The paper argues that the current trend of African countries belonging to multiple regional entities simultaneously is unsustainable, particularly as these groups move from free trade areas to customs unions. Because a country cannot realistically apply two different common external tariffs, overlapping memberships create legal contradictions and increased transaction costs. The author proposes four potential scenarios for rationalisation: equal sharing of members, a merger of SACU and SADC, the dominance of COMESA, or the creation of a single large regional trading bloc aligned with the African Union's goal of an African Economic Community by 2025.

Since 1994, South Africa has acted as a primary catalyst for African integration, leveraging its economic dominance and diplomatic efforts to promote the 'African Renaissance'. While it leads in conflict resolution and institutional building through the AU and SADC, it faces tensions regarding its perceived 'big brother' role and a persistent trade imbalance with other African states. Its global role involves representing African interests in the G20 and UN Security Council, though its moral authority is sometimes undermined by a reluctance to criticize fellow African leaders, specifically in Zimbabwe.

The briefing examines China's policy of offering duty-free treatment to 440 products from 30 African LDCs. While the scheme is tailored to existing export capacities, the author argues its economic impact is modest compared to its symbolic diplomatic value in signaling China's rise as a great power and alternative to Western donors.

The report examines the challenges of scaling up and replicating social and environmental enterprises, contrasting the 'large scale' goals of international donors with the modest growth ambitions of local entrepreneurs. It identifies a gap in recognition and reward programmes, which often act as catalysts but lack proactive strategies to create the enabling environments necessary for systemic transformation. Based on SEED award winners, the report warns that forced scaling can risk over-extension or environmental degradation and recommends tailored support, longer-term engagement, and peer learning to foster sustainable growth.