Regional Energy Security Dynamics in Southern Africa

The report examines energy security in Southern Africa, focusing on the need to expand electricity generation capacity and diversify away from coal. It identifies the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) as a key mechanism for regional cooperation to exploit vast hydropower potential in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique. However, the report notes that urgent short-term power shortages often lead countries, especially South Africa, to rely on quicker, coal-fired solutions, creating a 'lock-in' effect. It argues that for SAPP to succeed, the region must overcome significant regulatory risks, high upfront capital costs for hydropower, and a lack of cost-reflective pricing in national utilities.

• Energy security in Southern Africa is primarily defined by the need to develop new electricity generation capacity and infrastructure to provide affordable power to poor rural communities, as total capacity is currently insufficient for economic and social development.
• South Africa is the dominant force in the regional energy system, accounting for approximately 80 percent of total electricity demand and serving as a primary exporter to six neighboring countries: Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe.
• The region possesses immense renewable energy potential, particularly hydropower in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where the Congo River could potentially produce over 100,000 MW, enough to meet the energy needs of all Southern Africa.
• A significant barrier to expanding energy capacity is the underpricing of electricity by national utilities, which prevents them from generating the financial resources needed for maintenance and new investments.
• Hydropower development is hindered by high upfront costs and long gestation periods; for example, building a 1,000 MW hydropower plant costs approximately USD 2 billion, double the USD 1 billion required for a thermal plant of the same size.
• South Africa faces a 'lock-in' effect where urgent short-term power shortages drive the construction of new coal-fired stations, such as the Medupi Power Station, potentially undermining long-term decarbonization and regional diversification goals.
• The Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) is viewed as the best framework for regional energy security, but its success depends on moving beyond a competitive market model toward a cooperative approach to developing generating capacity.
• Investment in the region is deterred by 'regulatory risk' stemming from 'hybrid' markets that mix commercialized publicly owned utilities with varying levels of government control and a lack of transparent rules.
• Climate change presents both a risk and an opportunity: while droughts may constrain hydropower generation (as seen in the 1992 Kariba Dam water level drop of 8 percent), the global shift toward low-carbon energy increases the international competitiveness of the region's clean energy sources.

APA

Mbirimi, I. (2010). Regional Energy Security Dynamics in Southern Africa. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/energy_security_southern_africa.pdf

Chicago

Mbirimi, Ivan. Regional Energy Security Dynamics in Southern Africa. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2010. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/energy_security_southern_africa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mbirimi |first1=Ivan |title=Regional Energy Security Dynamics in Southern Africa |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=2010 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/energy_security_southern_africa.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mbirimi2010regional, author = {Mbirimi, Ivan}, title = {{Regional Energy Security Dynamics in Southern Africa}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2010}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/energy_security_southern_africa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }