Utiliser des enquêtes d’opinion représentatives dans le Mécanisme Africain d’Évaluation par les Pairs (MAEP)

The paper examines the methodological requirements for conducting credible representative public opinion surveys within the framework of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). It contrasts the limitations of 'participatory' consultations—which often suffer from self-selection bias—with the precision of random probability sampling. The author provides technical guidance on sample sizes, the necessity of accurate census data, and the importance of sampling individual citizens rather than household heads. It also outlines the practical costs and timelines for implementing such surveys in Africa, suggesting that national surveys of 1,200 respondents typically cost between $85,000 and $125,000.

• Participatory public consultations often fail to produce representative results because they rely on citizens taking the initiative to participate, which biases the sample toward the most educated and politically active individuals. In a 2006 South African case, only 6% of people had heard of the APRM process, and those who participated were more likely to be active in civil society or unions.
• Representative accuracy depends on random selection where every citizen has an equal and known probability of being chosen, rather than increasing the total number of respondents. Due to the law of diminishing returns, a random sample of 1,000 to 2,500 people is generally sufficient for sociopolitical surveys; doubling the sample size is required to reduce the margin of error by only one percentage point.
• For a national survey to be credible, it must meet several essential conditions: the absence of widespread civil conflict to allow freedom of movement for field workers, the availability of accurate and recent census data for 'probability proportional to size' (PPS) sampling, and the translation of instruments into local languages.
• Surveys must sample individual citizens rather than household heads to avoid bias. Because household heads are typically older and more likely to be male, relying on them as the sole informants leads to results that are not generalisable to the entire population, particularly regarding democratic citizenship and governance.
• The author recommends a minimum sample size of 1,200 respondents for national surveys to achieve a margin of error of approximately plus or minus three percentage points.
• Implementing a credible national representative survey in Africa typically requires a timeline of five to six months from the decision to launch to the receipt of results, with estimated costs ranging from $85,000 to $125,000 for 1,200 respondents.
• While citizens can provide valuable perceptions of elected leaders and public institutions, they may lack the specific knowledge required to inform certain technical areas of the APRM, such as corporate governance.

APA

Mattes, R. (2008). Utiliser des enquêtes d’opinion représentatives dans le Mécanisme Africain d’Évaluation par les Pairs (MAEP). South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/Occasional-Paper-13-FR.pdf

Chicago

Mattes, Robert. Utiliser des enquêtes d’opinion représentatives dans le Mécanisme Africain d’Évaluation par les Pairs (MAEP). South African Institute of International Affairs, 2008. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/Occasional-Paper-13-FR.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mattes |first1=Robert |title=Utiliser des enquêtes d’opinion représentatives dans le Mécanisme Africain d’Évaluation par les Pairs (MAEP) |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=August 2008 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/Occasional-Paper-13-FR.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mattes2008utiliser, author = {Mattes, Robert}, title = {{Utiliser des enquêtes d’opinion représentatives dans le Mécanisme Africain d’Évaluation par les Pairs (MAEP)}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2008}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/Occasional-Paper-13-FR.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }