Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo

The briefing examines the 2010 constitutional referendum in Madagascar, arguing that the process is unilateral and designed to consolidate the power of leader Rajoelina. It highlights the lack of consensus between international actors—specifically the divide between SADC/AU and France/EU—and warns that without inclusive dialogue, institutional reform, and security sector overhaul, the country will remain trapped in a cycle of political crises.

• The November 17, 2010 referendum on a new constitution is characterized as a unilateral process that may serve to consolidate Rajoelina's power. Specific changes in the proposed constitution include lowering the presidential candidate age requirement from 40 to 35 years and requiring candidates to be resident in the country for at least six months prior to elections, which is viewed as a move to exclude former president Marc Ravalomanana.
• There is a significant lack of international consensus regarding the transition. SADC and the African Union insist on an all-inclusive process based on the Maputo charter, while France advocates for a more pragmatic approach of engaging Rajoelina and his "home-grown initiative."
• Rajoelina has employed several strategies to maintain control and popularity, including the securitization of the domestic environment with bans on protests and the creation of special sales points for essential goods, such as rice sold at 500 ariarys (0.18 euro) instead of 1000 ariarys, to mitigate the effects of economic sanctions.
• To break the cycle of political crises, the document argues that Madagascar requires three critical interventions: a meaningful and all-inclusive political dialogue to create a new social contract, the strengthening of national and local institutions to prevent the state from being used for private wealth accumulation, and a comprehensive reform of the security sector to depoliticize the army.

APA

Zounmenou, D. (2010). Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-ending-the-status-quo

Chicago

Zounmenou, David. Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo. Institute for Security Studies, 2010. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-ending-the-status-quo.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zounmenou |first1=David |title=Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2010 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-ending-the-status-quo |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zounmenou2010madagascar, author = {Zounmenou, David}, title = {{Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2010}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-ending-the-status-quo}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }