Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political transition in Madagascar following the 2009 coup d'etat, focusing on a November 2010 referendum for a new constitution. The author argues that the process is unilateral, lacks inclusivity, and may be designed to consolidate the power of the current leader, Rajoelina, while bypassing international mediation efforts from SADC and the African Union.

• Madagascar scheduled a referendum for 17 November 2010 to decide on a new constitution following a 2009 coup d'etat. The proposed constitution includes a lowered age requirement for presidential candidates, reducing it from 40 to 35 years, and a residency requirement stating candidates must live in the country for at least six months before elections, which is viewed as a move to exclude former president Marc Ravalomanana.
• The transition process is characterized by a lack of consensus and the boycott of major political actors, including former presidents Albert Zafy, Didier Ratsiraka, and Marc Ravalomanana. These actors argue that the transitional government, the Haute Autorité de la Transition (HAT), has unilaterally imposed its plan and disregarded the Maputo charter.
• International responses to the crisis are divided. SADC, the African Union, and the US support an all-inclusive transition based on the Maputo charter. Conversely, some members of the European Union are open to the current plan, and France advocates for a pragmatic approach of engaging leader Rajoelina and holding him to his promise not to run for president.
• Leader Rajoelina is accused of using security measures and economic populism to maintain power. The domestic environment is heavily securitized with bans on protests, and the HAT has established special sales points for essential goods, such as selling rice at 500 ariarys (0.18 euro) instead of 1000 ariarys, to increase his popularity.
• The author identifies three imperatives for a sustainable resolution in Madagascar: the need for a meaningful and all-inclusive political dialogue to create a new social contract, the building of strong institutions to prevent the state from being used for private wealth accumulation, and the reform of the security sector to depoliticize the army and security forces.

APA

Zounmenou, D. (2010). Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-ending-the-status-quo

Chicago

Zounmenou, David. Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo. Institute for Security Studies, 2010. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-ending-the-status-quo.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zounmenou |first1=David |title=Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2010 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-ending-the-status-quo |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zounmenou2010madagascar, author = {Zounmenou, David}, title = {{Madagascar: Ending the Status Quo}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2010}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-ending-the-status-quo}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }