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The COP28 Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace is a voluntary call to action to scale up climate adaptation and finance for highly vulnerable regions, particularly those in conflict or fragility. It outlines objectives to improve financial access, enhance programmatic best practices through conflict-sensitive approaches, and strengthen cross-sectoral coordination between humanitarian, development, and peace actors.

The report examines Sudan's history of military coups, focusing on the 30-year authoritarian rule of Omar al-Bashir and the subsequent 2019 transition attempt. It details the power-sharing agreement between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), and the subsequent October 2021 coup by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The author argues that the coup weakened the civilian government and strengthened the military's influence, leaving the path to democracy uncertain and potentially destabilizing the Horn of Africa.

The document summarizes a consultation held on May 17-18, 2022, involving 50 experts to address gaps in resilience measurement. It establishes principles and 3-to-5-year priorities for four key areas: ensuring evidence is demand-driven and co-produced with communities; integrating psychosocial well-being while accounting for cultural bias; improving the mapping and analysis of complex systems; and leveraging resilience frameworks to better measure climate adaptation and future-oriented capacities.

Somaliland has maintained relative peace and stability since 1991 through a consensus-driven approach and effective administration, though it faces socio-economic challenges and delayed elections. Despite this, it lacks international recognition and remains in conflict with Puntland over the Sool and Sanaag regions.

The crisis in South Sudan has intensified regional rivalries in the Horn of Africa, drawing in neighboring states through military intervention, refugee influxes, and proxy support. Uganda has intervened militarily to support President Salva Kiir's government to protect economic interests and political influence. Sudan, while officially supporting the government, is suspected of supporting opposition forces to weaken South Sudan and re-establish influence. Ethiopia seeks to prevent a total state collapse to avoid ethnic spillover into its Gambella region and to block Eritrean infiltration. Eritrea is alleged to be covertly supporting opposition forces to undermine Ethiopia's regional predominance and strengthen its strategic relationship with Sudan.

The report examines SFA in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Somalia since 2010, finding that billions in spending have often been ineffective or counter-productive. It identifies a 'piecemeal approach' where multiple providers with diverging interests create fragmented security forces, undermining professional standards and civilian oversight. Case studies of Mali and Somalia highlight issues such as high personnel turnover, a focus on technical skills over ethics, and the diversion of equipment to illicit markets. The authors recommend long-term, coordinated partnerships based on detailed local capacity assessments to foster cohesion rather than fragmentation.

The document outlines Italy's strategic focus on the Horn of Africa, driven by colonial history and security concerns, and its role in regional peace processes. It details Italy's development aid trends, noting a decline in real terms despite government commitments, and examines Italy's trade and investment ties across Africa, particularly with Tunisia, Libya, and South Africa.

The Netherlands maintains a foreign policy focused on internal European integration and a selective, value-added approach to African development. It is a significant global donor of Official Development Assistance (ODA), pledging at least 50% of its bilateral budget to Africa, with priority given to the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region. The document highlights the Netherlands' role in promoting African priorities within the EU and its long-standing historical, economic, and defense ties with South Africa.

The document describes El Niño as a natural Pacific Ocean cycle that is being strengthened and made more frequent by climate change. It highlights the resulting increase in coral bleaching, particularly around the Galápagos Islands, and the broader global risks including severe droughts in India and the Horn of Africa, and heavier rains in the United States. The text notes that the 2026 El Niño event is breaking temperature records, with NOAA predicting it will reach "very strong" levels. WWF is responding by using its Oceans Futures platform to mitigate fisheries conflict and restoring mangroves in countries such as Mexico, Colombia, and Ecuador to improve coastal resilience.