The crisis in South Sudan: a game of regional chess

This research paper analyzes how the political and military crisis in South Sudan exacerbates existing regional tensions in the Horn of Africa, specifically involving Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. The author argues that the conflict has become a venue for regional competition, where states support opposing factions to secure their own strategic, economic, and security interests.

• Uganda has intervened militarily in South Sudan to support President Salva Kiir's government, driven by security, political, and economic interests. Uganda seeks to protect its bilateral trade relationship, the thousands of its citizens working in South Sudan, and its influence over the country's future, fearing that a victory by the Nuer-linked opposition led by Riek Machar would be a strategic setback.
• Sudan's relationship with the South Sudanese crisis is contradictory; while President Omar Al-Bashir publicly supported the government in early 2014, there are concerns that Sudan is covertly supporting opposition forces. A prolonged civil war in South Sudan would serve Sudan's interests by preventing the rise of a strong, oil-rich state allied with Uganda and allowing Sudan to regain influence.
• Ethiopia views the South Sudanese crisis as a direct threat to its own stability and security. It faces an influx of over 90,000 refugees since December 2013 and fears that the conflict could exacerbate ethnic divisions between the Nuer and Anuak groups in its own Gambella region. Additionally, Ethiopia worries that a collapsed South Sudanese government could allow Eritrea to infiltrate Ethiopian rebel groups.
• Eritrea is suspected of covertly supporting South Sudanese opposition forces to undermine Ethiopia's regional influence and mediation efforts through the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD). By fostering instability, Eritrea may aim to keep Ethiopia entangled in the unrest and strengthen its own strategic relationship with Sudan.

APA

Mesfin, B. (n.d.). The crisis in South Sudan: a game of regional chess. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-crisis-in-south-sudan-a-game-of-regional-chess

Chicago

Mesfin, Berouk. The crisis in South Sudan: a game of regional chess. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-crisis-in-south-sudan-a-game-of-regional-chess.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mesfin |first1=Berouk |title=The crisis in South Sudan: a game of regional chess |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-crisis-in-south-sudan-a-game-of-regional-chess |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mesfinndcrisis, author = {Mesfin, Berouk}, title = {{The crisis in South Sudan: a game of regional chess}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-crisis-in-south-sudan-a-game-of-regional-chess}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }