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China is repositioning its coal fleet to provide system flexibility, with the entire existing fleet on track to be retrofitted by 2027. While technical capacity is increasing, the report argues that full flexibility is constrained by power market design and dispatch practices. It emphasizes that as coal retrofit potential plateaus, the rapid scale-up of clean flexibility, particularly battery energy storage, is essential to avoid locking in emissions beyond 2030 and to maintain grid stability as renewables become dominant.

China is repositioning its coal fleet to serve as a regulatory and security resource to manage the variability of its growing renewable energy sector. This transition is driven by a critical need for short-term flexibility, with the IEA estimating that these needs will be three times higher in 2030 than in 2022. To achieve this, the Chinese government has implemented a series of Five-Year Plans and policies, including a target to retrofit "above 200 GW" of coal capacity for flexibility between 2021 and 2025. Technical efforts focus on lowering minimum loads (ML) to 25-40% of rated capacity and decoupling heat and electricity generation in combined heat and power (CHP) units. Financial mechanisms supporting this shift include a coal capacity pricing mechanism introduced in 2024 and the use of infrastructure real estate investment trusts (REITs) for eligible plants.

The report identifies China as the world's largest methane emitter and explores how sustainable finance can bridge the investment gap for abatement. It highlights the 2025 NDC update as a critical window for action and recommends the integration of quantitative methane targets, expanded green taxonomies, and the inclusion of methane in the national emissions trading system to mobilise the estimated USD 7.7 billion in annual investment needed.

China experienced a record surge in coal power commissioning and project proposals in 2025, despite a decline in actual coal power generation and the rapid growth of clean energy and storage. The report highlights a growing gap between investment decisions and system realities, noting that new capacity is dominated by large, inflexible units designed for baseload operation. This trend risks creating stranded assets and structural barriers to decarbonisation. The authors argue that the 15th Five-Year Plan must end net coal capacity growth and shift coal's role from a primary energy source to a flexible, residual support system to meet 2030 climate targets.

China is leading global renewable energy deployment with 339 GW of utility-scale solar and wind power under construction, nearly double the capacity of the rest of the world combined. By the first quarter of 2024, wind and solar accounted for 37% of China's total power capacity. While the country is on track to potentially reach 1,200 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2024, significant obstacles remain, including a reliance on coal to mitigate intermittency, insufficient Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission lines, and rising curtailment rates in several provinces.

In 2021, China's coal-fired power construction reached its highest level since 2016, with 33 GW of new capacity starting construction. Despite carbon neutrality targets, investment in long-process steel remains high, with China accounting for 85% of global new long-process capacity. The report warns that these investments lock in coal dependency and risk creating stranded assets valued at hundreds of billions of dollars. While there is growth in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel and renewable energy targets, the scale of new fossil-fuel infrastructure continues to outpace the transition needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.

Despite pledges for carbon neutrality, China's power and steel sectors continued to announce coal-based projects in early 2021. While CO2 emissions growth showed signs of cooling in the second quarter of 2021 due to government controls on financial excesses and industrial output, the volume of new coal projects remains high, risking the creation of stranded assets and undermining 2030 emission reduction targets.

Despite a slowdown in emission growth in Q2 2021, China's power and steel sectors continued to announce significant new coal-based capacity in the first half of the year. The report highlights a contradiction between economic growth driven by construction and decarbonization goals, noting that zero-emission power only met 30% of electricity demand growth between H1 2019 and H1 2021. While government measures to control fiscal overspending and industrial output led to a slowdown in CO2 emission growth in the second quarter, the continued announcement of coal-based projects risks creating stranded assets and hindering the transition to low-carbon technologies.

The report examines China's green finance landscape, identifying a significant gap between current investment levels and the estimated USD 1.4 trillion annual investment needed over the next decade to meet 2015 climate and environmental targets. While green credit and bonds saw success during the 13th Five-Year Plan, finance remains heavily dominated by the public sector, with at least 51% of total green finance coming from public sources, primarily Central State Owned Enterprises and state-owned banks. The document highlights barriers for private capital, such as high 'search costs' and limited access to financing channels, and notes that half of the USD 292 billion in energy-related investments to Belt and Road Initiative countries between 2013 and 2019 went to fossil fuels. It recommends increasing the ambition of green standards, improving project pipeline visibility for private actors, and introducing mandatory exclusion lists for high-emission sectors.

The report identifies 18 subsidies to coal extraction in China for the 2013–2015 period, quantifying 11 of them. For 2013, quantifiable subsidies (excluding credit support) totaled CNY 35.7 billion (USD 5.8 billion). The most significant quantified measures include temporary tax and fee relief from provincial and local governments (USD 1.65 billion), state budget investment in fixed assets (USD 1.27 billion), and compensations for mine shutdowns under phase-out plans (USD 1.03 billion). Credit support is identified as a potentially massive but uncertain subsidy, estimated between CNY 3.5 billion and 35.7 billion annually depending on the scenario. The report argues that these subsidies, particularly those driving long-term investment, lock in coal use and act as barriers to renewable energy deployment.

Coal mining accounts for 8 percent of global methane emissions. While significant potential exists for abatement through degasification and ventilation air methane (VAM) oxidation, progress is hindered by policy, financial, and technological barriers. In China, legal frameworks and conflicting safety/emission standards create hurdles, while India lacks resource assessments. Russia faces issues with licensing and inefficient degasification systems. In the US, split-estate ownership on federal lands and a lack of federal mandates limit viability. The report suggests that while large-scale investment is available, a lack of small-scale funding for design and demonstration is a primary obstacle, proposing revolving funds and micro-loans as solutions.

The document assesses the contribution of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to sustainable development in China's biogas sector. It finds that while the CDM can attract foreign investment and technology, the lack of transparent national sustainable development criteria and low incentives for CER buyers to prioritize sustainability often lead to poorly designed projects with low efficiency. The study highlights a disparity between the industrial sector, where wastewater treatment is common, and the livestock sector, which faces significant technical and financial barriers. It concludes that the CDM's second objective—advancing sustainable development—is often undermined by a 'race to the bottom' in criteria setting and a lack of international agreement on sustainability standards.

The report analyzes China's biofuels sector, focusing on the transition from grain-based ethanol to non-grain feedstocks grown on marginal land. It finds that government subsidies, including direct payments and tax exemptions, are essential for the industry's viability but may undermine food security, increase food prices, and cause environmental degradation. The authors conclude that biofuels have a negligible impact on China's energy security and recommend eliminating direct production subsidies.

The report details how lead pollution causes irreversible health damage, particularly in children, and links these outcomes to violations of international human rights treaties. It highlights specific crises in Nigeria, Kazakhstan, and China, while noting that lead battery manufacturing and recycling are primary global exposure sources.

This case study examines the integration of climate change adaptation into China's Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) program, specifically through the World Bank-financed Irrigated Agriculture Intensification Loan III Project (IAIL3) and a subsequent Global Environmental Facility (GEF) grant. Focused on the 3H Plain, the initiative aimed to address water scarcity and agricultural vulnerability by implementing drought-resistant crop varieties, water-harvesting infrastructure, and capacity-building for farmers, including rural women.