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The report argues that while coal's share of power generation in China has reached historic lows, institutional inertia—including capacity payments, inflexible dispatch rules, and a lack of a national retirement strategy—continues to drive high levels of new coal capacity additions. It highlights a disconnect where clean energy is growing rapidly but is often offset by the continued expansion and protection of coal assets, which are not fulfilling their intended role as flexible backups for renewables.

China is advancing a 1.3 TW pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind projects, with operating capacity reaching 1.4 TW by 2025. The country has become a global leader in offshore wind, growing its capacity to 42.7 GW by March 2025. While offshore wind is being used to decarbonize coastal industries and produce green hydrogen, the sector faces challenges from the 2021 phaseout of national subsidies and competition from ongoing coal and gas developments. The report suggests adopting hybrid auction mechanisms and centralized marine spatial planning to ensure sustainable growth.

As of May 2025, China's operational solar and wind capacity reached 1.4 billion kW, surpassing fossil fuel capacity for the first time in Q1 2025. The country leads globally in planned and under-construction projects, with over 1.3 billion kW in the pipeline. While offshore wind represents only 9% of total wind capacity, China accounts for 49% of global cumulative offshore installations as of March 2025. The document highlights the role of coastal provinces like Jiangsu and Guangdong in driving this growth and suggests transitioning from local to national-level policies and adopting international bidding models to ensure long-term stability and technical innovation.

China is advancing a 1.3 TW pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind projects, with operating capacity reaching 1.4 TW by 2025. While solar and onshore wind are expanding rapidly, particularly in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, offshore wind has emerged as a global powerhouse, accounting for 50% of global capacity. However, the offshore sector faces challenges from the 2021 phaseout of national subsidies and competition from planned coal and gas capacity in coastal provinces. The document argues for a transition from provincial development to a coordinated national policy framework incorporating hybrid auction mechanisms and robust spatial planning.

China is leading global renewable energy deployment with 339 GW of utility-scale solar and wind power under construction, nearly double the capacity of the rest of the world combined. By the first quarter of 2024, wind and solar accounted for 37% of China's total power capacity. While the country is on track to potentially reach 1,200 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2024, significant obstacles remain, including a reliance on coal to mitigate intermittency, insufficient Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission lines, and rising curtailment rates in several provinces.

The report examines the potential for direct electrification to decarbonize China's industrial process heating, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of the manufacturing sector's CO2 emissions. It focuses on industrial heat pumps for low-temperature needs (up to 165 °C) and thermal batteries for high-temperature needs (up to 1,700 °C). A techno-economic analysis reveals that while coal-fired boilers currently have the lowest levelized cost, industrial heat pumps become the cheapest option for low-temperature heat when 2030 carbon pricing is included. The report identifies significant barriers, including the high cost of electricity relative to coal and limited equipment availability, and recommends policies such as equipment rebates, carbon pricing expansion, and the optimization of Green Electricity Certificates to accelerate the transition.

The document provides a detailed update on the climate trajectories of China and the U.S., highlighting China's rapid expansion of non-fossil energy capacity and the U.S.'s implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). It details specific national policies, such as China's '1+N' system and the U.S.'s EPA rules on power plants and vehicles, while analyzing the diplomatic dynamics following the Sunnylands Statement and the transition of key climate envoys.

China is currently off track to meet its 2025 climate commitments, including targets for carbon and energy intensity and the share of non-fossil fuels. This is driven by a surge in coal power permitting and construction, with 114 GW approved and 70 GW starting construction in 2023. Despite official rhetoric that new coal plants serve a 'supporting' role for grid stability and renewable integration, the report finds this is often a 'smokescreen' for bulk power generation, leading to significant overcapacity and stranded asset risks.

This summary report details the outcomes of the High-Level Think Tank Seminar on Energy and Climate Change held in Beijing on April 25-26, 2024. The event brought together representatives from China and the United States to discuss decarbonization strategies, methane reduction, energy efficiency, carbon capture, and climate finance, while coordinating positions for COP29 and COP30.

The April 2024 China-US High-Level Dialogue in Beijing served as a venue for experts to discuss decarbonization strategies and identify collaboration opportunities despite challenging national-level relations. Key discussions focused on the differing sources of methane emissions, the scaling of CCUS and renewable energy, and the need for interoperable standards in trade and corporate disclosure. Both nations emphasized the importance of subnational cooperation and the role of the Sunnylands Statement in guiding joint efforts toward COP 29 and COP 30.

China is experiencing a significant increase in coal power capacity, with 37 GW starting construction and 52 GW permitted in the first half of 2023. The report argues that most of these projects violate central government policies intended to limit coal to a supporting role for renewables, instead serving as bulk power generation. This trend, driven by energy security concerns and a desire to maximize carbon-intensive capacity before the 2030 peaking deadline, risks creating massive overcapacity and undermining China's carbon neutrality goals.

In 2022, China experienced a dramatic surge in coal power project activity, permitting 106 GW of new capacity—the highest level since 2015. While 50 GW started construction, representing six times the capacity of the rest of the world combined, the trend is driven by rising peak electricity loads and a rigid grid paradigm. Despite claims that new plants are for "supporting" grid stability, evidence suggests they are intended for baseload use. This expansion occurs alongside record clean energy additions, but risks undermining China's carbon neutrality goals if it leads to a moderation of clean energy buildout or increased CO2 emissions.

The document examines the clash between the rural African donkey market, where the animal is a vital workhorse for the poor, and the lucrative Chinese market for ejiao (donkey-hide glue). It highlights how explosive demand in China has led to donkey shortages, illicit smuggling, and severe welfare abuses, which in turn diminish the socio-economic mobility of rural Africans, particularly women and girls. The author argues that the current unregulated trade risks damaging China-Africa relations and suggests implementing sustainability certifications, breeding programs, and a distinction between medicinal and wellness-based ejiao consumption to ensure a sustainable supply chain.

In 2021, China's coal-fired power construction reached its highest level since 2016, with 33 GW of new capacity starting construction. Despite carbon neutrality targets, investment in long-process steel remains high, with China accounting for 85% of global new long-process capacity. The report warns that these investments lock in coal dependency and risk creating stranded assets valued at hundreds of billions of dollars. While there is growth in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel and renewable energy targets, the scale of new fossil-fuel infrastructure continues to outpace the transition needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.

The document reports a surge in China's coal power construction and coal-based steelmaking investments in 2021, contradicting the country's carbon neutrality goals. It highlights that 33 GW of new coal power plants started construction in 2021 and 74 million tonnes of coal-based steelmaking capacity were approved. The report warns that these investments risk creating billions of dollars in stranded assets and lock the sectors into coal dependency, while noting a simultaneous but insufficient scale-up of clean energy.

The document argues that demand-side flexibility (DSF) is essential for integrating intermittent renewables and managing the electrification of transport and buildings. It identifies barriers such as inadequate economic signals and consumer passivity, while highlighting enablers like smart metering, digital aggregation platforms, and the need to align services with consumer preferences. For China, the brief suggests a transition from coal-based flexibility to decarbonised sources, proposing a hybrid approach combining market prices with administrative merit orders to manage distributed energy resources.

Despite pledges for carbon neutrality, China's power and steel sectors continued to announce coal-based projects in early 2021. While CO2 emissions growth showed signs of cooling in the second quarter of 2021 due to government controls on financial excesses and industrial output, the volume of new coal projects remains high, risking the creation of stranded assets and undermining 2030 emission reduction targets.

Despite a slowdown in emission growth in Q2 2021, China's power and steel sectors continued to announce significant new coal-based capacity in the first half of the year. The report highlights a contradiction between economic growth driven by construction and decarbonization goals, noting that zero-emission power only met 30% of electricity demand growth between H1 2019 and H1 2021. While government measures to control fiscal overspending and industrial output led to a slowdown in CO2 emission growth in the second quarter, the continued announcement of coal-based projects risks creating stranded assets and hindering the transition to low-carbon technologies.

The document assesses China's transition toward a comprehensive 'one-permit' governance system for stationary pollution sources, analyzing the legal framework, implementation challenges at the local level, and the role of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE). It highlights gaps in the current system, such as the exclusion of noise and solid waste from the primary permitting regime and a lack of specific legal liabilities for permit violations. The report compares China's approach with the EU's Industrial Emissions Directive (IED), emphasizing the use of Best Available Techniques (BAT) and risk-based inspection strategies to improve environmental quality.

The document analyzes China's heavy reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal, and the fiscal implications of this dependence. It details the structure of government revenues from fossil fuels, the influence of state-owned enterprises, and the prevalence of subsidies. While China has implemented policies to reduce coal overcapacity and peak emissions by 2030, it continues to provide significant subsidies and finance fossil fuel projects internationally through the Belt and Road Initiative.