China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue

A briefing by Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) reports that China is at risk of missing multiple 2025 climate commitments due to an acceleration in coal power permitting and construction. Despite official pledges to strictly control new coal power, an estimated 114 GW of capacity was approved and 70 GW started construction in 2023. The report argues that this expansion is driven by rigid grid management and a perceived 'policy window' before 2025, leading to significant risks of future overcapacity and stranded assets.

• China experienced a significant acceleration in coal power expansion in 2023, with an estimated 114 GW of capacity approved and 70 GW starting construction. This follows a trend from 2022 where 102 GW was permitted and 54 GW began construction. Since the start of 2022, approximately 218 GW of new coal power plants have been permitted, nearly matching the record of 233 GW permitted in 2014-15.
• China is currently off track to meet several of its 2025 climate targets. These include commitments to strictly limit coal consumption growth, strictly control new coal power, and reduce both energy and carbon intensity. Specifically, carbon intensity fell only 5% between 2020 and 2023, missing the 18% reduction target for 2020-2025. Energy intensity increased by 0.5% in 2023, the first increase since at least 2005.
• Targets for non-fossil energy and renewables are also lagging. The share of non-fossil energy increased by only 1.8 percentage points from 2020 to 2023, compared to a target increase of 4.1 percentage points by 2025. Additionally, only 30% of energy consumption growth came from renewable energy between 2020 and 2023, failing the target of more than 50% by 2025.
• The surge in coal power is attributed to a perceived 'policy window' during the 14th five-year plan period ending in 2025. Developers and officials are rushing to secure permits before stricter controls are potentially implemented. This is further complicated by rigid grid management; China's dispatchable capacity already exceeds peak load by 40%, yet provinces continue to build coal plants to ensure local stability rather than utilizing a flexible national grid.
• The report argues that the official justification for new coal plants—that they play a 'supporting' role for grid stability and renewable integration—is often a 'smokescreen'. Evidence shows that many new projects are located in provinces that already have sufficient capacity or where thermal power already dominates the mix (at least 75%), meaning additional coal is not technically required to enable renewable buildout.
• The continued buildout of coal power creates a high risk of stranded assets and overcapacity. If new plants are completed and retirements remain low, coal-fired capacity could reach 1400-1500 GW, while utilization could drop below 30% by 2035. Some provinces have adopted a "build first and modify later" approach, though the report notes there are no specific technical requirements or policies explaining how these future modifications would resolve the contradiction with climate goals.
• Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects have begun at some plants, such as the Taizhou, Shanwei Haifeng, and Gansu Zhengning stations. However, these currently capture only 5-20% of each plant's total CO2 emissions and lack meaningful economic incentives for storage, as they rely on industrial sales or enhanced oil recovery.

APA

Global Energy Monitor (2024). China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_CREA_2023H2_coal-power-briefing_China-missing-climate-commitments_11.pdf

Chicago

Global Energy Monitor. China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue. 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_CREA_2023H2_coal-power-briefing_China-missing-climate-commitments_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Global Energy Monitor |title=China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue |date=2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_CREA_2023H2_coal-power-briefing_China-missing-climate-commitments_11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{globalenergymonitor2024china, author = {{Global Energy Monitor}}, title = {{China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_CREA_2023H2_coal-power-briefing_China-missing-climate-commitments_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }