China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue

China is currently off track to meet its 2025 climate commitments, including targets for carbon and energy intensity and the share of non-fossil fuels. This is driven by a surge in coal power permitting and construction, with 114 GW approved and 70 GW starting construction in 2023. Despite official rhetoric that new coal plants serve a 'supporting' role for grid stability and renewable integration, the report finds this is often a 'smokescreen' for bulk power generation, leading to significant overcapacity and stranded asset risks.

• China's coal power expansion accelerated in 2023, with 114 GW of capacity permitted and 70 GW starting construction, continuing a trend from 2022 where 218 GW of new plants were permitted in total.
• China is failing to meet several 2025 climate targets: carbon intensity has only fallen 5% between 2020 and 2023 against an 18% target, and energy intensity fell only 2% against a 13.5% target.
• The target to derive more than 50% of energy consumption growth from renewable sources is off track, as only 30% of growth came from renewables between 2020 and 2023.
• The official policy that new coal power should only play a "supporting" role for grid stability is not being enforced; many new projects are located in provinces that already have excess generating capacity.
• China faces significant overcapacity risks, with dispatchable capacity already exceeding peak load by 40% (1870 GW capacity vs 1340 GW peak load in summer 2023), potentially leading to stranded assets valued between 120 and 350 billion yuan.
• Some provinces are using a "build first and modify later" strategy to justify new coal plants, though there are no specific technical requirements or policies detailing how these future modifications will resolve the contradiction with climate goals.
• Early-stage CCUS projects at coal plants in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Gansu only capture a small fraction (5-20%) of total plant emissions and currently lack meaningful economic incentives for storage.

APA

Global Energy Monitor (2024). China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_CREA_2023H2_coal-power-briefing_China-missing-climate-commitments_11.pdf

Chicago

Global Energy Monitor. China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue. 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_CREA_2023H2_coal-power-briefing_China-missing-climate-commitments_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Global Energy Monitor |title=China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue |date=2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_CREA_2023H2_coal-power-briefing_China-missing-climate-commitments_11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{globalenergymonitor2024china, author = {{Global Energy Monitor}}, title = {{China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_CREA_2023H2_coal-power-briefing_China-missing-climate-commitments_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }