Coal is losing ground but not letting go: Structural inertia and the struggle to shift coal’s role in China’s power system

This report by Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) examines the structural inertia preventing a transition away from coal in China's power system. Despite a record decline in coal's share of power generation and the rapid expansion of renewables, coal capacity continues to grow due to high commissioning rates, strong project approvals, and institutional protections such as capacity payments and inflexible dispatch rules. The report highlights a significant gap between official retirement targets and actual progress, urging the development of a national roadmap for coal phase-down in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan.

• Coal power capacity additions in China remain high, with 21 GW commissioned in the first half of 2025, the highest for a first-half period since 2016. Full-year additions for 2025 are projected by associations to exceed 80 GW. Construction activity is also sustained, with 46 GW of capacity either breaking ground or resuming construction in H1 2025.
• There is a continued push to advance coal projects before the 2030 carbon peaking deadline. While formal approvals for coal power in H1 2025 (25 GW) were down approximately 38% compared to the H1 average of 2022 and 2023, the total of new and revived proposals reached 75 GW, the highest H1 figure in a decade.
• A widening disconnect exists between coal capacity growth and actual generation. Coal's share of power generation hit a historic low of 51% in June 2025, down from approximately 73% in 2016. Conversely, renewables now account for 60% of total installed capacity, and wind and solar additions are expected to exceed 500 GW in 2025.
• Coal power is not functioning as a flexible backup for renewables despite official rhetoric. Most plants operate in baseload mode, and dispatch rules often prioritise meeting thermal plants' minimum operating levels and long-term contract volumes over renewable generation. Furthermore, capacity payments are linked to maximum output performance rather than the ability to scale down during high renewable supply.
• China is failing to meet its coal retirement targets. Only 1 GW of coal power was retired in H1 2025, and only 16 GW has been retired since 2021. To achieve the 14th Five-Year Plan goal of 30 GW by the end of 2025, 13 GW would need to be retired in the second half of the year, which the report describes as an unlikely prospect.
• Coal power construction is concentrated in provinces with high coal-mining production capacity (exceeding 50 million tonnes per year), specifically Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as industrial centres like Jiangsu and Shandong.

APA

Qin, Q., & Shearer, C. (2025). Coal is losing ground but not letting go: Structural inertia and the struggle to shift coal’s role in China’s power system. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H1-2025_3.pdf

Chicago

Qin, Qi, and Christine Shearer. Coal is losing ground but not letting go: Structural inertia and the struggle to shift coal’s role in China’s power system. Global Energy Monitor, 2025. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H1-2025_3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Qin |first1=Qi |last2=Shearer |first2=Christine |title=Coal is losing ground but not letting go: Structural inertia and the struggle to shift coal’s role in China’s power system |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=25 August 2025 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H1-2025_3.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{qin2025coal, author = {Qin, Qi and Shearer, Christine}, title = {{Coal is losing ground but not letting go: Structural inertia and the struggle to shift coal’s role in China’s power system}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H1-2025_3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }