From baseload to flexibility: How is coal’s role in China changing

China is strategically transitioning its coal power fleet from a baseload generation role to providing system flexibility to support the rapid expansion of wind and solar energy. The country is on track to fully retrofit its existing coal fleet for flexibility by 2027, though the report emphasizes that clean flexibility solutions, particularly battery energy storage, must scale up to avoid locking in emissions beyond 2030.

• China is on track to complete flexibility retrofits for its entire existing coal fleet by 2027. As of the third quarter of 2024, 360 GW of coal power had already been retrofitted, and total flexible coal capacity exceeded 600 GW by the end of 2024 when including newly built plants.
• The utilization of coal power in China is shifting from consistent baseload generation to a more seasonal and variable pattern. The monthly variance of current coal capacity utilization is twice that of 2016, driven largely by stronger seasonality in electricity demand and higher summer peaks.
• Retrofitting coal plants for flexibility involves significant economic trade-offs, including upfront capital costs between 500 CNY ($71.8 USD) and 1500 CNY ($215.2 USD) per kW. Additionally, operating at lower loads reduces fuel efficiency, with coal consumption per unit of electricity increasing by approximately 10% at a 40% load and nearly 60% at a 20% load.
• To support the transition, the Chinese government introduced a coal capacity pricing mechanism in early 2024 to remunerate plants for available capacity rather than just electricity generation. An upgrade in January 2026 expanded this remuneration to include natural gas, pumped hydro, and battery energy storage.
• As the potential for coal retrofits plateaus by 2027, the report argues that clean flexibility must scale up to prevent reliance on new coal capacity. China has already installed 144.7 GW of new energy storage as of the end of 2025 and is on track to surpass its 2027 target of 180 GW.
• Systemic constraints, including administrative dispatch practices and inflexible inter-provincial contracts, currently limit the full utilization of available flexibility. The report highlights that the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is critical for establishing a unified national power market to unlock this potential.

APA

Yang, B. (2026). From baseload to flexibility: How is coal’s role in China changing. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/02/From-baseload-to-flexibility-How-is-coals-role-in-China-changing-PDF.pdf

Chicago

Yang, Biqing. From baseload to flexibility: How is coal’s role in China changing. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/02/From-baseload-to-flexibility-How-is-coals-role-in-China-changing-PDF.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yang |first1=Biqing |title=From baseload to flexibility: How is coal’s role in China changing |publisher=Ember |date=10 February 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/02/From-baseload-to-flexibility-How-is-coals-role-in-China-changing-PDF.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yang2026from, author = {Yang, Biqing}, title = {{From baseload to flexibility: How is coal’s role in China changing}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/02/From-baseload-to-flexibility-How-is-coals-role-in-China-changing-PDF.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }