Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China

China experienced a record surge in coal power commissioning and project proposals in 2025, despite a decline in actual coal power generation and the rapid growth of clean energy and storage. The report highlights a growing gap between investment decisions and system realities, noting that new capacity is dominated by large, inflexible units designed for baseload operation. This trend risks creating stranded assets and structural barriers to decarbonisation. The authors argue that the 15th Five-Year Plan must end net coal capacity growth and shift coal's role from a primary energy source to a flexible, residual support system to meet 2030 climate targets.

• In 2025, China commissioned 78 GW of coal power capacity, the highest annual total in a decade, while coal power generation actually declined by 1% year-on-year.
• Proposals for new and reactivated coal power projects reached a record high of 161 GW in 2025, though permitting fell to a four-year low of 45 GW.
• The current project pipeline includes 291 GW of coal power, which represents 23% of existing operational capacity and would likely lead to structurally low utilisation if completed without significant retirements.
• New coal capacity is dominated by ultra-large units of 1 GW or more, with 52 such units entering operation in 2025; these are designed for high-utilisation baseload operation rather than the flexibility required by a wind- and solar-heavy grid.
• Financial incentives for coal power remain misaligned, as revenues are overwhelmingly tied to electricity output rather than system flexibility services, with capacity-related revenue accounting for only about 5% of total income in 2024.
• Coal power retirements are insufficient to offset growth, with many units under 'retire but not dismantle' arrangements that keep them as emergency backup, failing to alleviate overcapacity.

APA

Qin, Q., Shearer, C., & Schaepe, B. (2026). Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H2-2025_3.pdf

Chicago

Qin, Qi, Christine Shearer, and Belinda Schaepe. Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China. Global Energy Monitor, 2026. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H2-2025_3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Qin |first1=Qi |last2=Shearer |first2=Christine |last3=Schaepe |first3=Belinda |title=Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=February 2026 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H2-2025_3.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{qin2026built, author = {Qin, Qi and Shearer, Christine and Schaepe, Belinda}, title = {{Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H2-2025_3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }