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Carbon Market Watch advises the European Commission against incorporating international credits into the EU's 2040 climate target. The organization argues that such a move would ignore scientific advice for 90-95% domestic emission reductions, violate the spirit of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and expose the EU to significant financial and reputational risks. The document highlights systemic failures in carbon credit integrity, including over-crediting and human rights violations, and estimates that relying on credits for 5% of the target could result in EU emissions being 50% higher than a fully domestic target, costing up to €49.7 billion.

The EU significantly expanded its renewable energy capacity between 2022 and 2025, with solar PV reaching 406 GW and wind reaching 246 GW. This transition reduced the bloc's reliance on imported fossil fuels, saving an estimated EUR 58 billion in coal and gas import costs. While countries like Spain have successfully delinked electricity prices from gas costs, others like Italy remain highly vulnerable due to continued dependence on imported fossil fuels, particularly during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz blockade.

The report examines the strategic partnership between Nigeria and China within the context of Nigeria's energy transition. It highlights a shift in Chinese engagement from 'debt-heavy, state-directed mega-projects' to 'smaller, more commercially oriented and locally embedded projects' under a 'BRI 2.0' approach. While Nigeria faces severe energy gaps—with peak generation at 5.7 GW against a 20 GW demand—it aims for universal electricity access by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060. The report details specific collaborations in solar assembly, battery manufacturing, and green hydrogen, while advising Nigeria to 'stack' diverse capital sources from China, the EU, and the US to avoid geopolitical zero-sum traps. It concludes that Nigeria must strengthen institutional coordination to address asymmetries in bargaining power and ensure technology transfer.

In 2025, African nations faced a fragmented global order characterized by US strategic retrenchment and intensifying competition over critical minerals. The year was marked by the first G20 summit on African soil in South Africa, which pushed for reforms in sovereign credit rating practices and international financial support. While some states like Nigeria and Kenya increased domestic resource mobilization to counter US aid cuts, others in the Horn of Africa became focal points for geopolitical rivalry involving Israel and Gulf Arab states. Additionally, the Lobito Corridor emerged as a key site for US and EU efforts to counter Chinese dominance in critical mineral supply chains, though this development is accompanied by governance risks in the DRC and Zambia.

In 2025, African states navigated a multipolar landscape marked by a transactional US approach under the second Trump administration, which led to aid cuts and a push for domestic resource mobilisation in countries like Nigeria and Kenya. The AU-EU partnership faced skepticism over the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while South Africa's hosting of the G20 Summit resulted in the G20 Africa Engagement Framework and proposals to reform sovereign credit rating practices. Geopolitical competition intensified in the Horn of Africa, exacerbated by Israel's recognition of Somaliland, and along the Lobito Corridor, where the US and EU compete with China to secure critical mineral supply chains and midstream processing capacity.

The document highlights a significant shortfall in agricultural methane mitigation, noting that while the Global Methane Pledge aims for a 30% reduction by 2030, current NDCs and national plans may only achieve an 8% reduction. It argues that dietary shifts and sustainable farming are essential to avoid a 2°C warming impact driven by food consumption patterns.

The document argues that existing EU laws, including the Digital Services Act and the AI Act, are insufficient to address harmful online business models based on behavioural manipulation. It urges the European Commission to use the Digital Fairness Act to close legal gaps in horizontal consumer law, specifically targeting dark patterns, addictive design, and unfair personalisation, while strengthening enforcement through the Consumer Protection Cooperation Regulation.

A conflict in the Middle East involving Israel, the US, and Iran has caused global fossil fuel supply disruptions, leading to a nearly 50% increase in European gas prices in early March 2026. The briefing highlights that the EU's fossil import bill rose by an estimated €2.5 billion in the first ten days of the crisis. It argues that countries with high gas reliance for electricity, such as Italy, are most exposed to price spikes, while those that have decoupled gas from electricity prices, like Spain, are more resilient. The author contends that electricity market reforms or removing carbon costs (EU-ETS) are less effective than investing in renewables and clean flexibility to ensure long-term energy security.

A conflict in the Middle East in March 2026 caused European gas prices to spike by nearly 50%, increasing the EU's fossil import bill by €2.5 billion in ten days. The report highlights that countries with lower gas reliance, such as Spain, are more insulated from electricity price hikes than gas-heavy markets like Italy. It argues against suspending carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, noting that gas volatility has a far greater impact on bills than carbon pricing.

A coalition of organisations calls on the European Council and EU Member States to protect the integrity of the EU ETS against short-term political intervention. The letter argues that stable carbon pricing is essential for low-carbon industrial investment and warns that weakening the system would increase regulatory risks and financing costs. The signatories demand the maintenance of the agreed cap trajectory for 2030 and 2040 targets, the upholding of the polluter pays principle regarding the phase-out of free allocations, and the strategic use of auction revenues and the Innovation Fund to avoid fossil-based lock-in.

The report assesses how the African Organization for Standardisation (ARSO) can align its regional agriculture and forestry standards with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) to protect market access for African producers. While ARSO possesses a strong governance framework and chain-of-custody requirements, it lacks mandatory forest conversion cut-off dates, plot-level geolocation mapping, and public transparency regarding audit methods. The document argues that updating these standards to match EUDR's strict no-exemption rules and data requirements is essential for African exporters to meet compliance deadlines by late 2026 for large companies and mid-2027 for smaller enterprises.

The report examines Africa's green technology transition in 2025, highlighting how tightening global trade rules, such as the EU's CBAM and the uncertainty surrounding AGOA, alongside the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, have created economic pressures. It details multilateral outcomes from COP30, including the Belém Package's goal to triple adaptation finance by 2035, and continental efforts like the African Single Electricity Market and the goal to mobilise $50 billion annually for climate solutions. The text emphasizes the critical need for affordable decarbonisation finance and measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) capacity to prevent the marginalisation of African firms.

The report examines Africa's green tech transition in 2025, highlighting the challenges posed by the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and the expiration of AGOA. It details continental efforts to mobilize $50 billion annually for climate solutions and the progress toward an African Single Electricity Market, while noting the emerging role of AI in climate action and the need for a just transition to prevent the marginalization of smaller firms.

The author contends that CORSIA fails to address aviation's climate impact because it only covers emissions above a high baseline and lacks binding national enforcement mechanisms. Even with penalties, the scheme would only cover 20% of emissions for a Brussels-New York flight by 2030. In contrast, the EU ETS is presented as a superior model due to its 100% coverage of intra-EEA flights and harmonised penalties of €100 per tonne of CO2. The document advocates for the European Commission to extend the EU ETS to all departing flights by mid-2026, which could generate up to €9 billion annually by 2030 to fund zero-emission aircraft and high-speed rail.

The report examines the challenges and opportunities for African energy exporters facing the EU Methane Regulation, which imposes extraterritorial monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) standards on imports. While Africa accounts for nearly 13% of global methane emissions, the continent faces significant financing gaps and technical barriers to compliance. The authors argue that while the regulation threatens export revenues, it provides a strategic opportunity to adopt low-cost abatement technologies. Key recommendations include mobilising innovative financing like transition bonds, establishing local independent verification capacity, and harmonising MRV standards to maintain market access to the EU.

The briefing identifies a significant gap in global efforts to reduce agricultural methane, noting that only 4% of NDCs include specific targets for the sector. It argues that current policies rely too heavily on technical 'end of pipe' solutions like biogas and feed additives, while failing to address systemic issues such as overconsumption of animal protein and the need for dietary shifts. The document highlights 'agricultural exceptionalism' as a barrier in high-livestock producing countries and warns that some nations, such as Aotearoa (New Zealand), are weakening their targets. It recommends that NDCs implement mandatory reduction targets aligned with a 1.5°C trajectory and prioritize sustainable diets and agroecology.

ClientEarth argues that the Vision 2040 for fisheries and aquaculture must move beyond 'paper commitments' by integrating environmental, climate, and fisheries laws. The organization emphasizes the need for tangible, measurable targets, the phase-out of harmful subsidies, and a shift in funding toward small-scale fishers and marine restoration to ensure Europe's strategic autonomy and food security.

ClientEarth argues that the MSFD has failed to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) by its 2020 deadline and proposes a revision that turns GES into a binding 'obligation of result'. The response calls for clear, quantifiable EU-wide thresholds, the introduction of interim targets, and a strict non-deterioration obligation. It emphasizes the need for policy coherence between the MSFD and the proposed Ocean Act, as well as the alignment of fisheries management and climate obligations with marine protection. Furthermore, it advocates for dedicated funding streams and the introduction of robust compliance mechanisms, including access to justice, dissuasive penalties, and a right to compensation for damages resulting from breaches of the directive.

The document highlights the growing role of energy storage in supporting the global transition to renewable energy, noting that combined wind and solar capacity has reached 3,222 GWac. It identifies China, the U.S., and the EU as leaders in total capacity, while emphasizing the trend of colocating storage with renewables in emerging markets like Chile, Türkiye, Australia, and Nigeria to manage curtailment and grid instability. Specifically, Chile is identified as the leader in Latin America, utilizing BESS to address transmission constraints and target 80% renewable electricity generation by 2030.

The report documents a coordinated strategy in Guatemala where social media disinformation is used to delegitimise Indigenous leaders and land activists, facilitating their criminalisation by the state. It highlights the roles of Attorney General Consuelo Porras and networks of 'fake news' accounts in targeting figures like Luis Pacheco and Leocadio Juracán. The document argues that social media giants—Meta, X, and TikTok—are complicit by failing to moderate hate speech and disinformation, which often precedes legal persecution.