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This introduction to the Africa Manufacturing Forecast examines the continent's struggle with industrialisation, noting a stagnation in manufacturing value added and a decline in global market share. It outlines current strategic efforts to reverse this trend through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the adoption of green and digital technologies, and the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to move Africa up the global value chain.

This research paper presents a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa looking ahead to 2043, modelling the potential economic and social impacts of a concerted push toward industrialisation compared to a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) baseline. The scenario assumes a series of interventions starting in 2027 focused on increased investment, technological advancement, regulatory reform, and higher labour participation.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected impacts of a 'Demographics and Health scenario' on Africa by 2043. It compares this scenario against a 'Current Path' baseline, forecasting improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH), disease burden, infant mortality, life expectancy, and overall economic prosperity.

This research paper describes the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, which combines differentiated carbon taxes and energy efficiency policies to reduce emissions while accelerating economic growth and poverty reduction across Africa.

This research paper proposes a structural reform of the UN Security Council (UNSC) to align it with modern representative norms, introducing a tiered membership system based on 'Global Power' criteria and proportional election via the General Assembly.

This research paper introduction from the Institute for Security Studies provides an overview of the current global climate crisis, highlighting record-breaking temperatures in 2024, the increasing frequency of weather-related disasters, and the rising scale of climate-induced displacement. It emphasizes the gap between current policies and the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, while noting the persistent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

This research paper examines the implementation challenges of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), focusing on the economic disparities between member states and the resulting risks for Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the barriers to agricultural transformation in Africa, focusing on the critical link between formal land ownership, access to credit, and food security.

This research paper discusses the role and impact of regional and preferential trade agreements (RTAs/PTAs), focusing on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as the world's largest free trade area by membership.

This research paper introduces the 'Combined scenario' for Africa, a vision aligned with the African Union's Agenda 2063. It outlines the continent's need to navigate simultaneous demographic, digital, urban, and green transitions while balancing energy access expansion with low-carbon requirements and managing fiscal constraints caused by debt and geopolitical fragmentation.

This report section analyzes the impact of commodity dependence on African economies, detailing the 'resource curse' where heavy reliance on raw material exports correlates with poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. It contrasts the development trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor nations and discusses the role of sovereign wealth funds and the global energy transition in shaping future demand.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes trends in stability and armed conflict in Africa, highlighting the role of state-based violence, organized crime, and rapid urbanization in driving fatality rates.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers of the Institute for Security Studies argues that the UN Security Council (UNSC) is losing legitimacy and effectiveness because its structure is out of step with current geopolitical realities. The author highlights the dysfunction caused by the dominance of the five permanent members (P5) and the need for reform to address 21st-century security threats, including cybercrime, AI, and regional conflicts in Africa and the Middle East.

This document provides conclusions and strategic recommendations for improving health and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) systems across Africa. It emphasizes the need for a shift from donor dependency toward domestic investment, innovative financing, and regional self-reliance to transform health outcomes into macroeconomic drivers of growth.

Africa's health and WaSH systems are characterized by severe underinvestment, urban-rural disparities, and a precarious dependence on external aid, exemplified by the projected millions of additional deaths following the 2025 closure of USAID. As of 2023, over a billion people lack safely managed sanitation, and nearly a billion lack safely managed water, driving high rates of communicable diseases and hindering educational and economic development. These systems are currently not on track to meet 2030 SDG targets and face increasing pressure from climate-induced water stress and flooding.

This report outlines the 'Combined scenario' for Africa's economic structural transformation toward 2043, focusing on the shift from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. It details the projected roles of manufacturing, services, agriculture, and ICT, while emphasizing the necessity of urban resilience and regional trade integration via AfCFTA to achieve a diversified, knowledge-based economy.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers outlines the legal mechanisms for amending the UN Charter to reform the UN Security Council and warns that the high threshold for ratification threatens the legitimacy of the entire UN system.

This research design document outlines the multi-method approach used by the Institute for Security Studies to assess state governance trends and future trajectories in the Global South. The methodology integrates World Bank governance indicators, expert workshops, horizon scanning, and a four-scenario framework to analyze how geopolitical, economic, and social forces influence the role of the state.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the disproportionate impact of climate change on Africa, detailing the frequency of climate-related disasters, the vulnerability of populations due to socio-economic factors, and the resulting threats to food security, health, and regional stability.