Size and Quality of Labour in Africa compared with China and India

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies compares the size, quality, and productivity of the labour force in Africa against those of China and India, utilizing forecasts through 2043. While Africa possesses a rapidly growing and youthful workforce that may attract labour-intensive industries, it lags significantly behind China and India in education, health, and overall labour productivity.

• Africa's labour force is growing rapidly and is projected to surpass China's by 2034 and exceed 1 billion people by 2043. In 2023, the labour force was estimated at 576 million, having already surpassed India's 534 million in 2020.
• Africa trails China and India in educational attainment. In 2023, the mean years of education for adults aged 15 and older in Africa was 6.8 years, compared to 7.6 years in India and 8.9 years in China. By 2043, under the Current Path, these figures are forecast to be 7.8 years for Africa, 9.2 years for India, and 10.4 years for China.
• Health outcomes in Africa are significantly poorer than in China and India, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In 2023, Africa had 392,000 DALYs per million people, which was nearly double China's 209,000 and higher than India's 271,000.
• Labour productivity in Africa is substantially lower than in China and India. China's average labour productivity overtook Africa's in 2001, and India's did so in 2016. By 2043, African labour productivity is forecast to be less than half of India's and approximately 13% of China's.
• There is a gender gap in education across all three regions, though it is forecast to decline by 2043. In 2023, the difference in mean years of education between men and women was 1.3 years in Africa and 1.6 years in India, while Chinese men had about 0.7 years more education than women.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Chipanda, B. (2026). Size and Quality of Labour in Africa compared with China and India. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=04-size-and-quality-of-labour

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Blessing Chipanda. Size and Quality of Labour in Africa compared with China and India. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=04-size-and-quality-of-labour.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Chipanda |first2=Blessing |title=Size and Quality of Labour in Africa compared with China and India |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=04-size-and-quality-of-labour |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026size, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{Size and Quality of Labour in Africa compared with China and India}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=04-size-and-quality-of-labour}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }