Search Climate Insights Directory

The Life After Coal Campaign and Greenpeace Africa urge the South African Minister of Energy to halt the Thabametsi and Khanyisa coal-fired IPP projects. They argue these plants are legally precarious due to pending court challenges over climate and environmental authorisations, and are economically unnecessary given the availability of cheaper renewable energy. The authors highlight severe risks to water security and air quality in the Highveld Priority Area and Waterberg-Bojanala, while warning that the plants could become stranded assets due to greenhouse gas constraints.

The document advocates for a managed decline in global fossil fuel production to meet Paris Agreement goals, suggesting that supply-side policies complement demand-side efforts to reduce emissions and carbon lock-in. It proposes using NDCs, long-term strategies, and a global stocktake to track production phase-downs while ensuring a just transition for affected workers and economies.

The Life After Coal Campaign, comprising the Centre for Environmental Rights, groundWork, and Earthlife Africa, urges the South African government to abandon new coal and nuclear power projects in favor of a least-cost, renewable energy trajectory. The campaign argues that current energy planning must adhere to constitutional rights, international climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, and scientific evidence showing that new fossil fuel infrastructure is no longer competitive. Citing studies from Meridian Economics, the CSIR, and other international bodies, the document asserts that accelerating the decommissioning of older coal plants and curtailing certain new units could save Eskom up to R17 billion while improving public health and environmental outcomes.

ClientEarth acknowledges Lloyd's decision to divest the Central Fund from companies heavily associated with coal starting 1 April 2018, but argues that this represents only 2.5% of the total assets in the 'Chain of Security'. The organization contends that coal-related stranded asset risks increase the likelihood of insolvency and property and casualty claims, thereby threatening the broader market's solvency. ClientEarth proposes that Lloyd's modify its Minimum Standards to require stress testing for coal risks, adopt the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Recommendations as industry best practice, and mandate the use of peer-reviewed climate science in risk evaluations.

The report examines the energy transition in Nigeria and West Africa, highlighting the region's vast renewable potential against the backdrop of dilapidated grid infrastructure and low electricity access. It identifies a trend of fragmented, small-scale green projects—such as solar initiatives in Nigerian universities and private sector power generation—and argues that these must be integrated into holistic national and regional plans. The document warns that the risk of 'stranded' hydrocarbon assets creates a limited window for countries to use fossil fuel revenues to fund renewable investments. It concludes that achieving sustainable energy goals requires better alignment between research and policy, increased investment in granular data analysis, and improved regional coordination through bodies like ECOWAS.

The report addresses the risk of stranded assets resulting from the sustainability transition, arguing that while 'green finance' for new technologies is well-documented, there is insufficient focus on the 'old' industries and assets that may become unusable. It introduces a methodology for the financial industry to quantify these risks to reduce unnecessary investment and negative social consequences.

The document asserts that the revamped EU ETS rules for 2021-2030 are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, necessitating additional national actions such as carbon floor prices. It highlights the UK's experience, where a floor price introduced in 2013 contributed to a nearly 60% drop in coal emissions in 2016. The text notes similar initiatives in the Netherlands and considerations in Nordic countries, arguing that such price floors provide investment certainty and discourage the use of coal to avoid stranded assets.

Carbon Market Watch argues that the risk of carbon leakage within the EU ETS has decreased due to global climate progress, such as the Paris Agreement, and suggests that the long-term competitiveness gains of a low-carbon transition outweigh short-term costs.

The report analyzes the inevitable decline of Australia's coal sector, driven by the cost-competitiveness of renewables and falling global demand for thermal coal. It presents two domestic transition scenarios: a 'moderate' one compatible with Australia's NDC and a 'faster' one aligned with a 2-degree global goal. The document highlights the risks of sudden plant closures, using the Hazelwood power station as a case study to argue for more predictable, planned transitions and a 'just transition' framework to support affected regional communities and workers.

The report analyzes two pathways for China's coal transition: a PEAK-2030 scenario aligned with its INDC and a more ambitious PEAK-2025 scenario. It argues that an early peak is possible through stringent policies in the power, industry, and building sectors, while emphasizing the need to manage socio-economic risks such as stranded assets in the electricity sector and job losses in coal-producing regions. The analysis highlights significant co-benefits for air quality and public health, as well as the potential for reducing methane emissions from coal mining.

The report argues that global thermal coal demand is likely to peak and decline by the early 2020s, driven by technological advances in renewables, air quality concerns, and macroeconomic shifts in China and India. Using the COALMOD-World model, it demonstrates that even scenarios not fully aligned with the 2°C Paris Agreement goal can severely impact major exporters like Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, and the USA. The analysis highlights that the US is the most vulnerable 'marginal' supplier, while South Africa is heavily dependent on Indian demand. The authors warn that new long-lived investments in coal mining run a high risk of becoming stranded assets.

The report examines India's coal dependency and the challenges of transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Using the AIM/Enduse model, it compares the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) scenario with two 2°C pathways: a 'conventional' one relying on Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and a 'sustainable' one shifting toward renewables, gas, and nuclear power. Key findings highlight the risk of significant stranded assets—including approximately 220 billion tonnes of unutilized coal reserves valued at USD 6.7 trillion—and the increasing vulnerability of coal power plants to water shortages, which already cause substantial generation losses. The report argues that while coal remains a mainstay until 2030, a managed phase-out is necessary to meet global climate targets, requiring synchronized actions in energy efficiency, renewable scaling, and the retirement of inefficient sub-critical plants.

The document argues that restricting California's oil production can significantly lower global CO2 emissions because a portion of the avoided production is not replaced by other sources. It estimates that for every barrel of oil left in the ground in California, global consumption would drop by 0.2 to 0.6 barrels, leading to a reduction of 80 to 240 kg of CO2 per barrel. The brief identifies several policy options, including ceasing new well permits, implementing emissions performance standards, and targeting production in pollution-vulnerable areas. It notes that such measures are cost-competitive with other California climate strategies and could address 'carbon leakage' by complementing demand-side policies. Additionally, the report highlights that many of California's most productive oil fields are more GHG-intensive than global averages and are located in disadvantaged communities, making production limits a matter of environmental justice.

The document evaluates the proposed Northwest Innovation Works methanol facility at the Port of Kalama, arguing that its greenhouse gas emissions are significantly underestimated and that it is unlikely to reduce global emissions. It proposes a 'climate test' for new industry to ensure projects do not lock in high-carbon technologies or become stranded assets in a transition to a low-carbon economy.

The report analyzes India's energy subsidies across coal, oil, gas, and renewable energy, noting a significant decrease in central government expenditure on energy subsidies between FY2014 and FY2016. While fossil fuels still receive the majority of support, the data indicates a trend of declining fossil-fuel subsidies and increasing support for renewables.

Civil society organisations, including Greenpeace Africa and the Life After Coal Campaign, have requested a meeting with South Africa's Minister of Energy to address the integrity of the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The signatories argue that the current process has "substantial flaws" and advocate for a just transition from coal to publicly-owned renewable energy and energy efficiency. They propose eleven principles for the IRP, emphasizing least-cost technology combinations, the inclusion of external costs to health and climate, and alignment with the Paris Agreement and South Africa's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The letter specifically seeks clarity on timelines, public participation, the status of energy determinations for coal, nuclear, gas, and renewables, and the delay in Independent Power Producer agreements.

The document argues that climate change creates material financial risks that UK defined benefit (DB) pension trustees are legally required to manage. Consequently, investment consultants may face legal liability, regulatory sanctions, and reputational damage if they fail to provide advice that accounts for these risks in areas such as Statements of Investment Principles (SIP), asset allocation, and manager selection. It highlights an emerging industry standard where failure to address climate risk could be viewed as a breach of the duty of care.

The briefing identifies critical policy gaps in national coal transitions, emphasizing that a 'just transition' requires more than carbon pricing. It highlights the need to protect workers, build local economic resilience, avoid stranded assets, coordinate international trade flows, and secure financing. The document frames these managed transitions as a credible way for countries to increase their climate ambition within the UNFCCC framework.

The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that New Mexico should strengthen its renewable portfolio standard (RPS) to 80 percent by 2040 to ensure a cost-effective transition from coal to clean energy. Modeling shows that renewables are the most economically favorable choice, offering significant capital investment, job growth, and public health benefits without substantially increasing consumer electricity costs. The report warns against utility plans to overinvest in natural gas, which could lead to stranded assets and higher climate risks.

The Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) has challenged the Development Bank of Southern Africa's (DBSA) financing of the Thabametsi coal-fired power plant. The CER highlights a March 2017 North Gauteng High Court ruling that suspended the project's environmental authorisation because climate change impacts were not adequately considered. The CER notes that Thabametsi's own assessments indicate it would be one of South Africa's highest greenhouse gas emitters and faces high water availability risks. The document argues that financing new coal projects contradicts the DBSA's stated goals of supporting a low-carbon economy and its status as a UN Green Climate Fund entity, warning that the plant is likely to become a stranded asset given South Africa's commitments under the Paris Agreement.