Aligning fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement

The document advocates for a managed decline in global fossil fuel production to meet Paris Agreement goals, suggesting that supply-side policies complement demand-side efforts to reduce emissions and carbon lock-in. It proposes using NDCs, long-term strategies, and a global stocktake to track production phase-downs while ensuring a just transition for affected workers and economies.

• Managing the decline of global fossil fuel production is necessary to stay within the Paris Agreement's 1.5-2°C temperature limits, as current production plans far exceed the remaining carbon budget.
• Supply-side policies that restrict fossil fuel extraction can be more cost-effective than demand-side policies alone, help mitigate the 'green paradox' where producers accelerate extraction in response to demand limits, and reduce long-term carbon lock-in.
• A managed decline in production offers additional benefits, including improvements to human health and the local environment, easier administration by targeting a small number of producers, and increased public support for climate action.
• Various nations and entities have already implemented supply-side measures, such as oil exploration bans in France, Costa Rica, and Belize, coal mine closures in China, and the World Bank's decision to end upstream oil and gas financing after 2019.
• To ensure the transition is just and equitable, policy-makers must plan for the economic diversification of nations and communities dependent on fossil fuel extraction to avoid disruptive and costly future transitions.
• The UNFCCC process can facilitate a production phase-down by encouraging Parties to include supply targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and long-term low greenhouse gas emissions development strategies by 2020.
• The document suggests implementing an extraction-based accounting system and utilizing the five-yearly global stocktake to track whether national production declines align with international climate goals.

APA

Verkuijl, C., Piggot, G., Lazarus, M., van Asselt, H., & Erickson, P. (2018). Aligning fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/verkuijl-fossil-fuels-paris-pb.pdf

Chicago

Verkuijl, Cleo, Georgia Piggot, Michael Lazarus, Harro van Asselt, and Peter Erickson. Aligning fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/verkuijl-fossil-fuels-paris-pb.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Verkuijl |first1=Cleo |last2=Piggot |first2=Georgia |last3=Lazarus |first3=Michael |last4=van Asselt |first4=Harro |last5=Erickson |first5=Peter |title=Aligning fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=1 March 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/verkuijl-fossil-fuels-paris-pb.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{verkuijl2018aligning, author = {Verkuijl, Cleo and Piggot, Georgia and Lazarus, Michael and van Asselt, Harro and Erickson, Peter}, title = {{Aligning fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/verkuijl-fossil-fuels-paris-pb.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }