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The document analyzes the evolving energy partnership between the US and South Africa, framed by the US's shift toward energy independence via shale gas and its 'Power Africa' initiative. While South Africa is interested in the US model for shale gas and renewables, the briefing argues that South Africa must remain cautious regarding hydraulic fracturing due to severe water constraints and infrastructure gaps. It highlights the US-South Africa Strategic Dialogue as a mechanism for cooperation on clean energy, carbon capture, and hydrocarbon development, while noting that US initiatives in Africa have targeted a limited number of countries.

The report analyzes how the EU 28 can decrease its reliance on natural gas imports through cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment across the buildings, industry, and energy supply sectors. It argues that these measures can reduce the share of natural gas in primary energy demand to 16% by 2030, significantly outperforming the European Commission's proposed 2030 framework.

The report argues that implementing cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy measures could halve the EU's net natural gas imports and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 49% relative to 1990 levels by 2030. It identifies the buildings sector as having the highest potential for savings, followed by energy production and industry, while noting that domestic production, including shale gas, is unlikely to increase substantially.

The policy brief analyzes the effectiveness of coal-fired electricity regulations in Canada and the United States. It finds that the U.S. approach, which targets the broader electricity sector and existing plants, will deliver significantly higher national emission reductions by 2020 and 2030 than the Canadian approach, which focuses on new plants and those reaching the end of their useful life. Despite these policies, neither country is projected to meet its Copenhagen Accord target of a 17% reduction in emissions by 2020 relative to 2005 levels.

The report identifies significant risks associated with shale gas extraction, including regulatory failures, threats to climate goals, and water scarcity. It specifically challenges claims that fracking will lower energy bills in the UK and warns of potential negative impacts on energy security.

Natural gas, primarily composed of methane, forms from the thermal breakdown of ancient organic matter under heat and pressure. Its storage depends on rock porosity and permeability, with deposits categorized as conventional or unconventional. In the United States, the Energy Information Administration estimated 2,203 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas in 2009, though global reserves are significantly higher, with Russia holding the largest share.

The document examines South Africa's struggle to transition from a high-carbon, coal-based energy economy to a green economy. It analyzes the role of the state-owned utility Eskom, the impact of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPP), and various financial and regulatory incentives designed to attract private investment in renewables. The author argues that while policy signals are positive, a lack of inter-departmental coordination and the entrenched nature of the minerals-energy complex hinder the transition.

The document analyzes four potential political pathways for South Africa: 'Bafana Bafana' (moderate underachievement), 'The Future is ANC' (continued dominance), 'The Rise of Multiparty Democracy' (coalition governance), and 'A Nation Divided' (populist decline). It identifies the leadership of the ANC, splits within COSATU, rising voter apathy among 'born frees', and the DA's ability to attract black voters as decisive factors. The author recommends electoral reforms, including a mixed-member proportional system and mandatory voting, to address a lack of political accountability.

Friends of the Earth expresses concern that EU-U.S. trade negotiations may weaken health and environmental safeguards, particularly concerning food safety, GM crops, and chemical regulations. The organization calls for the blocking of the Keystone XL pipeline and the implementation of the EU's Fuel Quality Directive to prevent the proliferation of tar sands. Additionally, it criticizes the 'EU 2030 package' as inadequate and argues that leaders are pursuing a corporate-driven agenda of deregulation rather than investing in energy efficiency and community-owned renewables.

An anti-fracking coalition in South Africa opposes Minister Susan Shabangu's plan for shale gas exploration in the Karoo, describing it as an extractive process that benefits a small elite while threatening the natural environment and ignoring the needs of local residents for agrarian transformation and basic services.

The Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) argues that current proposed fracking regulations in South Africa are inadequate because they rely on industry standards and are housed under the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA) rather than comprehensive environmental laws. The document advocates for a regulatory regime based on the Constitution and the National Environmental Management Act (NEMA), calling for a specialised inter-departmental unit to oversee authorisations and enforcement. Key recommendations include mandatory baseline environmental measurements, public disclosure of fracking fluid chemicals, a prohibition on using potable water, and the implementation of 'green completions' to eliminate gas venting and flaring. The CER emphasizes that fracking should only be permitted if it can be proven to contribute to sustainable development without causing irreparable harm to water resources or disadvantaged communities.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies presents three plausible scenarios for South Africa's economic and political trajectory up to 2030: 'Bafana Bafana' (continued underachievement), 'Mandela Magic' (high growth and vision), and 'Nation Divided' (political instability and populist decline). Using the International Futures forecasting system, the author analyzes how leadership choices, particularly within the African National Congress (ANC) and its alliance with COSATU, will impact GDP, employment, and social stability.

The document identifies three primary pressure points affecting South Africa's mining outlook: a negative macroeconomic environment characterized by currency volatility and regulatory uncertainty, structural gaps in infrastructure and skills, and the need to better leverage existing strengths such as reserve size and financial services. It warns that internal instability and global headwinds, including slowing demand from China, are eroding South Africa's competitive edge relative to other sub-Saharan African nations and mature mining jurisdictions.

The Centre for Environmental Rights argues that South Africa's proposed fracking regulations are flawed because they rely on industry standards rather than a comprehensive legal framework. The document recommends that fracking be regulated under a suite of environmental laws (NEMA, NWA, NEMWA, NEMAQA) rather than just the MPRDA, and suggests the creation of a specialised inter-departmental unit for monitoring and enforcement. Key requirements include mandatory baseline measurements for water and air quality, public disclosure of fracking fluid chemicals, a prohibition on using potable water, and significant financial guarantees for rehabilitation.

The Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) published a set of Minimum Requirements for the Regulation of the Environmental Impacts of Fracking in December 2013 to address the potentially severe effects of the shale gas industry.

The report examines the potential of South Africa's shale gas reserves, estimated by the US Energy Information Administration as the eighth largest globally. It contrasts a 'Base Case' of no fracking with a 'Shale Boom' and a 'Blue Bridge' scenario. While a shale boom could boost GDP and reduce poverty, it risks significant water contamination in the semi-arid Karoo region and may increase long-term carbon emissions by delaying renewable energy investment. The authors propose a 'Blue Bridge' approach, using an excise tax on fracking to fund renewable energy infrastructure, which they argue could maximize economic growth while ensuring long-term environmental sustainability.

Friends of the Earth South Africa and groundWork argue that the South African government is rushing to lift the fracking moratorium without transparent impact studies or meaningful public consultation. They contend that promises of job creation by corporations like Royal Dutch Shell are misleading and that fracking would exacerbate socio-economic inequalities and environmental degradation. The authors highlight the climate risk, noting that methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, and urge the president to protect regions like the Karoo and KwaZulu-Natal by pursuing renewable energy alternatives.

The paper examines Russian interests in Barents Sea oil and gas, using the Shtokman field as a case study. It argues that turning hydrocarbon deposits into resources requires a supportive societal context, including technology, markets, and legal frameworks. The analysis highlights the tension between the Russian state's geopolitical goals and the commercial viability concerns of companies like Gazprom and foreign partners. Ultimately, the Shtokman project was postponed indefinitely due to high costs, falling European demand, and competition from North American shale gas.

The paper argues that South Africa's National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 target of 5.4% average annual GDP growth is 'very ambitious' and unlikely to be met under current trends. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors find a 'Base Case' average growth of 3.4% for 2014-2030, significantly lower than the NDP target and regional peers. While the 'Highway' scenario shows that combining aggressive interventions—such as reducing corruption, curbing HIV/AIDS, and increasing foreign direct investment—could push growth above 5%, such a path requires systemic structural change. Conversely, the analysis suggests that targets for education and infrastructure are 'eminently achievable' even with lower economic growth, indicating a potential lack of integration in the NDP's sectoral planning.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) has endorsed a set of fifteen water and air protection standards developed with shale gas producers in the Marcellus region, to be overseen by the Center for Sustainable Shale Development (CSSD). These standards include a ban on discharging fracking water to surface waters, a 90% water recycling requirement, and zero gas discharge to the air for wells in production. While CATF views these as the toughest standards globally, it maintains that voluntary industry agreements are not a substitute for government regulation and advocates for federal mandates on carbon capture and storage for natural gas power production.