FRACKING FOR SHALE GAS IN SOUTH AFRICA: BLESSING OR CURSE?

The report examines the potential of South Africa's shale gas reserves, estimated by the US Energy Information Administration as the eighth largest globally. It contrasts a 'Base Case' of no fracking with a 'Shale Boom' and a 'Blue Bridge' scenario. While a shale boom could boost GDP and reduce poverty, it risks significant water contamination in the semi-arid Karoo region and may increase long-term carbon emissions by delaying renewable energy investment. The authors propose a 'Blue Bridge' approach, using an excise tax on fracking to fund renewable energy infrastructure, which they argue could maximize economic growth while ensuring long-term environmental sustainability.

• South Africa possesses significant shale gas resources, estimated by the US Energy Information Administration at 390 tcf (74.1 BBOE), ranking it as the eighth largest reserve globally.
• The Karoo Basin, where most shale gas is located, is highly vulnerable to water stress and contamination. The region receives less than 100 mm of rain annually on average, and mapping indicates that most land designated for fracking contains aquifers that are moderately or extremely vulnerable to pollution.
• A 'Shale Boom' scenario could significantly improve economic indicators by 2050, including an increase in per capita production by over ZAR 12,156 (USD 1,200) and a reduction of 400,000 people living in extreme poverty compared to the Base Case.
• Unregulated shale gas development may lead to 'Dutch Disease,' where an increase in energy exports makes other sectors—such as agriculture, ICT, manufactured goods, and services—more expensive and less competitive.
• While natural gas is less carbon-intensive than coal, a 'Shale Boom' may increase aggregate carbon emissions in the long run because lower energy prices can drive up overall demand and discourage investment in renewable energy.
• The 'Blue Bridge' scenario proposes an excise tax on fracking—starting at 0.05 ZAR in 2017 and rising to 0.30 ZAR per million cubic feet by 2050—to fund renewable energy. This path is projected to result in higher GDP (ZAR 16.51 trillion by 2050) and lower long-term emissions than both the Base Case and Shale Boom scenarios.

APA

Hedden, S., Moyer, J. D., & Rettig, J. (2013). FRACKING FOR SHALE GAS IN SOUTH AFRICA: BLESSING OR CURSE? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF9_6December2013.pdf

Chicago

Hedden, Steve, Jonathan D Moyer, and Jessica Rettig. FRACKING FOR SHALE GAS IN SOUTH AFRICA: BLESSING OR CURSE? Institute for Security Studies, 2013. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF9_6December2013.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hedden |first1=Steve |last2=Moyer |first2=Jonathan D |last3=Rettig |first3=Jessica |title=FRACKING FOR SHALE GAS IN SOUTH AFRICA: BLESSING OR CURSE? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=December 2013 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF9_6December2013.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hedden2013fracking, author = {Hedden, Steve and Moyer, Jonathan D and Rettig, Jessica}, title = {{FRACKING FOR SHALE GAS IN SOUTH AFRICA: BLESSING OR CURSE?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2013}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF9_6December2013.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }