A Climate Gift or a Lump of Coal?

The policy brief analyzes the effectiveness of coal-fired electricity regulations in Canada and the United States. It finds that the U.S. approach, which targets the broader electricity sector and existing plants, will deliver significantly higher national emission reductions by 2020 and 2030 than the Canadian approach, which focuses on new plants and those reaching the end of their useful life. Despite these policies, neither country is projected to meet its Copenhagen Accord target of a 17% reduction in emissions by 2020 relative to 2005 levels.

• The proposed U.S. electricity regulations are projected to deliver significantly greater national GHG reductions than the Canadian regulations in both 2020 and 2030. By 2020, the U.S. policy is projected to mitigate 5.4% of national emissions relative to 2005 levels, while the Canadian policy is projected to mitigate only 0.4%. By 2030, these figures are 8.9% for the U.S. and 3.4% for Canada.
• The difference in impact is driven by the regulatory design: the U.S. policy uses state-specific, rate-based goals for the electricity sector as a whole, whereas the Canadian regulation bans new coal plants and requires existing plants to shutter only after reaching a 'useful life' of 45 to 50 years. Because few Canadian plants reach this age before 2020, the immediate impact is negligible.
• When measured by sectoral emissions rather than national totals, the Canadian policy is projected to achieve greater reductions by 2030. It is forecast to mitigate 27.7% of 2011 sector GHGs by 2030, compared to 25.3% for the U.S. policy. The U.S. sectoral impact is partially offset by the 'shale gas revolution', which lowers natural gas prices and facilitates a transition away from coal independently of the GHG policies.
• Neither Canada nor the United States is on track to meet their Copenhagen Accord pledge to reduce 2020 emissions to 17% below 2005 levels. The U.S. is projected to be 7.6% below 2005 levels, while Canada is projected to be only 0.4% below.

APA

Dion, J., Sawyer, D., & Gass, P. (2014). A Climate Gift or a Lump of Coal? International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate-gift-or-lump-of-coal.pdf

Chicago

Dion, Jason, Dave Sawyer, and Phil Gass. A Climate Gift or a Lump of Coal? International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2014. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate-gift-or-lump-of-coal.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dion |first1=Jason |last2=Sawyer |first2=Dave |last3=Gass |first3=Phil |title=A Climate Gift or a Lump of Coal? |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2014 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate-gift-or-lump-of-coal.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dion2014climate, author = {Dion, Jason and Sawyer, Dave and Gass, Phil}, title = {{A Climate Gift or a Lump of Coal?}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2014}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate-gift-or-lump-of-coal.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }